College Football Week 7 Rush Rate Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Oct 10, 2023

We were on the precipice of a huge College Football Week 6, but a few things just didnâ€™t break our way.

First, the fact that Jimbo Fisher could fumble that golden opportunity against Alabama is mind-blowing. I honestly do not know if anyone has done less with more talent in the last 25 years.

South Florida had three first-half turnovers and couldnâ€™t catch up after that. Arkansas was never in doubt and had a chance at winning against Ole Miss but could not finish their valiant effort. We only won one of our three underdog ML picks, with Old Dominion besting Southern Mississippi.

We have eight more matchups to analyze this week. Letâ€™s dive in!

College Football Week 7 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for:

Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt

Wyoming @ Air Force

Air Force

1st in RROE on Standard Downs (+34.7%)
2nd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
1st in RROE on Passing Downs (+45.3%)
62nd in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Wyoming

46th in Def Power Success Rate
89th in Def Stuff Rate
98th in Def Line Yards
49th in Def Rush Success Rate
19th in Def Rush IsoPPP
82nd in Def Standard Downs Rate
30th in PFF Grade
79th in Def EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
28th in Def EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Air Force is essentially the poster team for this article. They rush the ball regardless of the situation, and they are really good at it. Wyoming is formidable in certain areas, but they are not elite in any category outside of limiting explosive plays. These average defensive rushing numbers will only make for an even longer day against an Air Force team that will run the ball relentlessly. Wyoming will have to force some turnovers to keep this game competitive, and I honestly do not see that happening.

Bet: Air Force -10.5 (-110) - Also a Solid Selection for Teasers

Navy @ Charlotte

Navy

2nd in RROE on Standard Downs (+28.9%)
25th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
3rd in RROE on Passing Downs (+28.4%)
61st in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Charlotte

2nd in Def Power Success Rate
47th in Def Stuff Rate
74th in Def Line Yards
52nd in Def Rush Success Rate
62nd in Def Rush IsoPPP
99th in Def Standard Downs Rate
109th in PFF Grade
124th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
82nd in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

There are a couple of things that stand out for me in this matchup. Charlotte is elite in Def Power Success Rate, but that is about all they are good at when it comes to stopping the run. Charlotteâ€™s ranking of 99th in Def Standard Downs Rate and 124th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs is extremely alarming.

Simply put Navy should be in optimal situations for the vast majority of the game and will excel in those Standard Downs. The line gives me a little concern, but I will not overthink it, as we are here to attack a simple angle that makes sense.

Bet: Navy -3.5 (-105) + Navy ML (-164) for Parlays

Troy @ Army

Army

3rd in RROE on Standard Downs (+14.1%)
70th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
4th in RROE on Passing Downs (+18.6%)
79th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Troy

35th in Def Power Success Rate
37th in Def Stuff Rate
8th in Def Line Yards
23rd in Def Rush Success Rate
56th in Def Rush IsoPPP
44th in Def Standard Downs Rate
11th in PFF Grade
37th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
89th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

We have the trifecta of academy schools this weekend. However, unlike the other two games, we will take the opponent in this one. Troy lines up well against Army in pretty much every advanced statistical category. On top of that, Army, unlike Navy and Air Force, is just average at running the ball this year. Army struggled last week against Boston College, and Troy is infinitely better defensively.

Bet: Troy -4.5 (-110) + Troy ML (-210) for Parlays

Auburn @ LSU

Auburn

7th in RROE on Standard Downs (+14.1%)
70th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
4th in RROE on Passing Downs (+18.6%)
79th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

LSU

111th in Def Power Success Rate
61st in Def Stuff Rate
84th in Def Line Yards
114th in Def Rush Success Rate
111th in Def Rush IsoPPP
54th in Def Standard Downs Rate
62nd in PFF Grade
116th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
55th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

At first glance, Auburn looks like just an average rushing team that is running the ball way too much. If they were in a matchup against the likes of Georgia or Texas A&M, both of whom have formidable rushing defenses, I would feel the exact same way, but this LSU team is porous and undisciplined against the run. If Auburn can keep most of the game in Standard Downs, they will end up gashing and running through LSU. Auburn ML is definitely in play here.

Bet: Auburn +11.5 (-110) + Auburn ML (+350)

Tulane @ Memphis

Tulane

10th in RROE on Standard Downs (-12.8%)
63rd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
29th in RROE on Passing Downs (-5.7%)
87th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Memphis

30th in Def Power Success Rate
25th in Def Stuff Rate
75th in Def Line Yards
70th in Def Rush Success Rate
105th in Def Rush IsoPPP
64th in Def Standard Downs Rate
118th in PFF Grade
47th in Def EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
8th in Def EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

This is a puzzling matchup for me. Memphis has some solid underlying metrics in Def Power Success Rate and Def Stuff Rate, but they are horrendous in Def Rush IsoPPP and PFF Grade. In an optimal situation, Tulane wants to establish the run. The issue is they are barely average in EPA with that strategy. If Tulane can adjust their playcalling in Passing Downs, they will have the opportunity to win this game. I cannot get past Memphis ranking bottom 30 in allowing explosive plays and PFF Grade. Those two paired together are usually a recipe for disaster.

Bet: Tulane -3.5 (-110) + Tulane ML (-172) for Parlays

Sam Houston State @ New Mexico State

New Mexico State

19th in RROE on Standard Downs (+8.6%)
35th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
22nd in RROE on Passing Downs (+6.8%)
63rd in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Sam Houston State

85th in Def Power Success Rate
111th in Def Stuff Rate
102nd in Def Line Yards
39th in Def Rush Success Rate
53rd in Def Rush IsoPPP
86th in Def Standar Downs Rate
59th in PFF Grade
106th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
5th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

The angle in this game is quite simple: If the majority of this game is played in Standard Downs, New Mexico State will roll. Sam Houston Stateâ€™s splits for EPA/Rush Att on Standard and Passing Downs are reminiscent of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Sam Houston State doesnâ€™t force Passing Downs at an elite rate, which could be their undoing in this matchup.

Bet: New Mexico State -3.5 (-110) + ML (-176) for Parlays

Liberty @ Jacksonville State

Liberty

28th in RROE on Standard Downs (+4.8%)
20th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
6th in RROE on Passing Downs (+15.2%)
36th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Jacksonville State

43rd in Def Power Success Rate
15th in Def Stuff Rate
6th in Def Line Yards
6th in Def Rush Success Rate
36th in Def Rush IsoPPP
12th in Def Standard Downs Rate
15th in PFF Grade
13th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
2nd in EPA/ Rush Att on Passing Downs

This is a classic unstoppable force vs immovable object. If I had told you Jacksonville State was top-20 in seven defensive rushing categories, you would probably call me a liar. Well, this is the exact case. Liberty is an extremely well-coached team, but if they do not temper their RROE in this matchup, especially on Passing Downs, they could be looking at their first loss of the season. Jacksonville State checks every single box for a stout defense against a rush-heavy team.

Bet: Jacksonville State +6.5 (-110) + Jacksonville State ML (+215)

Michigan State @ Rutgers

Rutgers

27th in RROE on Standard Downs (+5.7%)
53rd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
46th in RROE on Passing Downs (+2.1%)
54th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Michigan State

112th in Def Power Success Rate
78th in Def Stuff Rate
27th in Def Line Yards
22nd in Def Rush Success Rate
7th in Def Rush IsoPPP
49th in Def Standard Downs Rate
26th in PFF Grade
30th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
14th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Rutgersâ€™ RROE isnâ€™t as high as some of the other teams in this article, but they do have a high RROE on Standard Downs, which is usually a good barometer for what type of identity a team would like to have. We were on Rutgers last week in an underdog role, but in this matchup, I am looking to fade them. Michigan State lines up well enough in pretty much all categories to warrant a backing here.

Bet: Michigan State +5.5 (-110) + ML (+168)

The Bets

Parlay

New Mexico State (-176)
Troy (-210)
Jacksonville State +6.5 (-108)

Parlay Odds: +351 for 1.5u

Teaser (6 pts)

Air Force -10.5 to -4.5
Auburn +11.5 to 17.5

Teaser Odds: -110 for 2u

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Navigate