College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Ohio vs. Northern Illinois (2022)

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 8 odds, picks, and predictions for: Ohio vs. Northern Illinois.

And check out our other College Football Week 8 game previews:

• Tulsa vs. Temple
• UAB vs. Western Kentucky
• Syracuse vs. Clemson
• UNLV vs. Notre Dame
• Texas vs. Oklahoma State
• Ole Miss vs. LSU
• Purdue vs. Wisconsin
• Mississippi State vs. Alabama
• Minnesota vs. Penn State
• Washington vs. California
• UCLA vs. Oregon
• Rutgers vs. Indiana
• New Mexico vs. Fresno State
• Louisiana-Monroe vs. Army
• Navy vs. Houston
• East Carolina vs. UCF
• Vanderbilt vs. Missouri
• Hawaii vs. Colorado State
• Duke vs. Miami
• FIU vs. Charlotte
• Wake Forest vs. Boston College
• Ohio State vs. Iowa
• Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Ohio vs. Northern Illinois

I am, in general, more comfortable handicapping sides than totals. And when I bet totals, I'm usually led by pace, weather factors, or injury considerations. Not this one. This is your classic "defense optional" over play.

This is the only game on the entire board this week between bottom-eight SP+ defenses. NIU's ranks No. 124, Ohio's ranks No. 129 (out of 131). In a game that profiles to be competitive (3-point spread).

My numbers say we have a 12.5-point overlay here. That's from a formula that at this point in the season is exclusively weighing data from this season - which is to say under the supposition that both offenses, defenses, and special teams will more or less perform as they have, with pace-of-play factors baked in.

But that's not really the case here, is it?

Because NIU QB Rocky Lombardi (surprisingly) returned last week from injury and is a full-go for this weekend. Lombardi is an enormous upgrade over QB2 Ethan Hampton. Hampton has thrown 47 more passes than Lombardi. Which means that around 60% of the data of NIU's offensive sample is depressed.

Whoever is running the scoreboard in Athens on Saturday should get ready for a workout.

The pick: Ohio-NIU OVER 65

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