College Football Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets

by Scott Bogman |
Oct 19, 2023

I thought we had the Colorado game wrapped up last week but the 2nd-half collapse was jaw-dropping and frustrating. I like some teams coming off bye this week and I'm going to double-tap Florida State and against Auburn that paid off last week.

College Football Week 8 Picks & Predictions

Week 6 Record: 4-6 | 2023 Record: 34-36 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

#6 Oklahoma vs. UCF

The big difference here, in my opinion, is that while UCF's offense has been great (27th PG in scoring 34.7 PPG), they haven't faced a defense like the Sooners yet. OU is allowing only 14 PPG (7th in the country) and they're well-rested from the bye week.

There are 170 FBS QBs that have had 50 dropbacks and UCF QB Timmy McClain has the MOST time to throw (PFF) of any QB. I doubt Ethan Downs and the rest of the Soonersâ€™ line is going to give McClain that type of time to throw.

UCF makes its living running the ball but Oklahoma has a top-30 statistical defense against the run and a Top 10 graded run Defense on PFF. The 156 yards against Texas was the most rushing yards OU has given up this year. UCF relies on the run game to make this offense operate and with the Sooners getting two weeks to prep I don't think it's going to work out for UCF like it has so far this season.

Oklahoma is just slightly above average running the ball this season at 56th but with UCF at 122nd on the defensive side, they are going to run the ball down UCF's throat in this one. UCF hasn't played anyone even close to Oklahoma in talent yet this season and after seeing Oklahoma prove it against Texas, I think this is a bigger mismatch than we are expecting. Give me the Oklahoma by a lot in this one!

Bet: Oklahoma -18.5 (-110)

#17 Tennessee @ #11 Alabama

This game last season was a high-flying affair but with A LOT of pieces missing this one should turn into a run-heavy, field position, last one to make a mistake takes the loss type of game. Bryce Young and Hendon Hooker have been replaced by Jalen Milroe and Joe Milton. Jahmyr Gibbs and Jalin Hyatt are gone as well and those four players combined for 10 TDs in this game last year

The post-Texas Alabama defense hasn't allowed a team to score more than 21 points and has allowed barely over 300 yards of offense to anyone including some strong SEC teams in Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Arkansas.

Tennessee hasn't allowed more than 20 points since their loss to Florida. The competition hasn't been on par with Alabama but still good in UTSA, South Carolina, and Texas A&M.

Alabama and Tennessee rely on the run game for offensive success and both also have very strong run defenses. I feel like this game is going to be a lot of short-yardage running plays, incomplete passes, and then big explosive plays as both defenses will be trying to stack the box against the run.

Tennessee currently ranks 132nd in Time of Possession this season. Alabama controlling the ball and clock favors the Under as well as they are ranked 87th in Pace of Play.

I feel like Dallas Turner and James Pearce will be the big-impact guys instead of the QBs and the defense will take the day. Run-first offenses with strong defenses and a below-average pace of play should have these teams playing tight and trying not to make the big mistake. I really like this Under is this one!

Bet: UNDER 48.5 (-110)

#24 Iowa vs. Minnesota

The question here to me is will Minnesota score? They are coming off a bye which is nice but Iowa has only allowed Penn State to move the ball and they are a legit playoff contender. Outside of the 31 points Penn State scored, Michigan State's 16 is the most points this Iowa defense has allowed.

The Battle for the Axe is going to be slow, boring, and involve a ton of defense. Iowa is Top-10 in scoring defense and ranks in the 30s in rushing and passing defense. Both of these defenses are +10 in turnovers and we'll see some in this game for sure but these grotesque offenses will have to score to take advantage of them.

Minnesota QB Athan Kaliakmanis isn't lighting the world on fire but he hasn't turned the ball over at an alarming rate either. He also is not putting this team in a position to score many points. The Gophers rank 111th in scoring and have been held to under 14 points in 4-of-6 games so far this season.

Deacon Hill isn't striking fear into the hearts of opposing defenses but he's done enough to beat the last three Iowa opponents by more than 3.5 and I think with the defense playing the way it is they won't have to do much on offense to cover this 3.5 point spread.

Bet: Iowa -3.5 (-110)

#13 Ole Miss @ Auburn

This is a bit of rinse and repeat for Auburn as after they were smashed by LSU they have to play another good offense in Ole Miss.

On offense for Auburn, it's about passing the ball and once again, I don't think they can do it. Auburn is still 123rd in passing and Payton Thorne has been fairly miserable, he has one game over 200 yards, two over 100, and three under 100. Robby Ashford comes in to run for Auburn and he only has one game over 50 yards rushing and hasn't attempted more than six passes in a game.

The Auburn defense is strong but they were ripped to shreds last week by LSU to the tune of 563 yards and 48 points. Ole Miss is another Top-10 scoring offense, 17th in passing and 39th in rushing. I don't know that Ole Miss will have the success LSU did but they are rested after the bye week and have had two weeks to prep for Auburn.

Auburn won't be able to keep up with Ole Miss on offense and with an extra week to prepare the only advantage Auburn has is that they are at home. I don't think it will be enough as Ole Miss is better on offense, doesn't turn the ball over (+6 TO margin and have only 3 TOs on offense) and, are coming off a bye week. Give me the Rebs by at least a TD.

Bet: Ole Miss -6.5 (-110)

#16 Duke @ #4 Florida State

I feel like Duke is a little bit of foolâ€™s gold on offense. Riley Leonard is 'day-to-day' but it was a high ankle sprain and I feel like even if he does play he'll be less than 100%. Duke did a good job shutting down NC State but backup QB Henry Belin only completed four passes in that game, Duke had to punt six times, was 1-for-9 on 3rd downs, and let NC State possess the ball for 36:56 and held them out of the endzone.

If the FSU offense gets the ball for 36 minutes they are going to put up 40 or 50 points. Duke ranks 2nd in coverage on PFF and is 8th against the pass but they haven't seen anyone like FSU yet. Notre Dame, Clemson, and NC State are all big wins but not dangerous passing offenses.

QB Jordan Travis is currently 4th in Heisman odds. Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson (who is probable now) are going to be a tough stop for Duke, especially if the offense can't conjure up anything and they give the ball up to this powerful offense too many times it's really going to get away from them. If we had Riley Leonard at 100% I would be out on this game but with him out or playing gimpy, I think FSU wins big!

Bet: Florida State -14 (-110)

Other Bets I Like:

App State -6.5 @ Old Dominion (-110)
#20 Missouri -7 vs South Carolina (-110)
Colorado State +8 @ UNLV (-110)
#23 Tulane vs North Texas OVER 62.5 (-110)
Buffalo -7 @ Kent State (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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College Football Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets