College Football Week 8 Rush Rate Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Oct 18, 2023

Another solid weekend with our picks, and yet again, we missed out on a couple of bigger plays.

Michigan State controlled the entire game and, unfortunately, fell apart at the end against Rutgers. New Mexico State, Troy and Navy were never in doubt, while Auburn was never a sweat either because they got demolished. All things considered, a 5-3 record ATS is something we will take every single weekend.

We have eight College Football Week 8 games that present some value. Letâ€™s dive in!

College Football Week 8 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Record

ATS: 9-7 (+1.30 units)
Parlay: 0-2 (-3.00 units)
Teaser: 1-1 (-.10 units)
Overall: -1.80 units

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for:

Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt

New Mexico State @ UTEP

New Mexico State

28th in RROE on Standard Downs (+6.2%)
35th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
34th in RROE on Passing Downs (+4.4%)
57th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

UTEP

55th in Def Power Success Rate
48th in Def Stuff Rate
89th in Def Line Yards
109th in Def Rush Success Rate
98th in Def Rush IsoPPP
73rd in Def Standard Downs Rate
117th in PFF Grade
120th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
121st in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

We have a familiar face in New Mexico State back in the column. UTEP has a litany of concerns from a rushing defensive perspective. Ranking 98th in Def Rush IsoPPP, 117th in PFF Grade and bottom-15 in EPA/Rush Attempt on Standard and Passing Downs is alarming, to say the least. If New Mexico State stays on schedule, this could be a carbon copy of last weekâ€™s game that was never in doubt.

Bet: New Mexico State -3.0 (-110) + ML (-155) for Parlays

Army vs. LSU

Army

3rd in RROE on Standard Downs (+24.1%)
50th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
2nd in RROE on Passing Downs (+31.1%)
88th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

LSU

116th in Def Power Success Rate
45th in Def Stuff Rate
69th in Def Line Yards
106th in Def Rush Success Rate
107th in Def Rush IsoPPP
52nd in Def Standard Downs Rate
41st in PFF Grade
111th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
34th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

This matchup is pretty simple: If Army is in enough Standard Downs situations, they will cover the massive spread number. LSU is extremely undisciplined in numerous areas. They are extremely talented, but some of these rankings are completely unacceptable. Army has an RROE profile reminiscent of Arkansas, and they almost beat LSU. Obviously, Army isnâ€™t as talented as Arkansas, but the spread for this game is 30.0 points.

Bet: Army +30.0 (-110)

Ole Miss vs. Auburn

Auburn

9th in RROE on Standard Downs (+11.1%)
58th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
6th in RROE on Passing Downs (+14.7%)
95th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Ole Miss

130th in Def Power Success Rate
126th in Def Stuff Rate
97th in Def Line Yards
65th in Def Rush Success Rate
46th in Def Rush IsoPPP
67th in Def Standard Downs Rate
60th in PFF Grade
80th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
48th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

We are going back to the well again with this Auburn team. They have a clear identity, and that is what we are looking for in this series. Ole Miss has been a target previously, too. Arkansas played them to an extremely close loss and was able to limit their offensive possessions and shorten the game. Auburn will need to force enough Standard Downs to shorten this game and impose their will in the trenches. Auburn is better from an EPA/Rush Att standpoint than Arkansas was, and I believe they will make this a competitive game.

Bet: Auburn +6.5 (-110) & ML (+215)

Rice vs. Tulsa

Tulsa

10th in RROE on Standard Downs (+10.9%)
114th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
25th in RROE on Passing Downs (+6.8%)
77th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Rice

92nd in Def Power Success Rate
53rd in Def Stuff Rate
74th in Def Line Yards
99th Def Rush Success Rate
86th in Def Rush IsoPPP
50th in Def Standard Downs Rate
87th in PFF Grade
10th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
118th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

This game is an enigma because Rice shows some signs of a defense you could take advantage of on the ground, but then again, they seem formidable in other areas. Rice being 10th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs is not only surprising but is the most telling category of all. Tulsa is abysmal on Standard Downs and shockingly better on Passing Downs. The thing is, you do not want to live in Passing Downs regardless of how successful you are. The volatility and variance are much higher. Rice being able to force more Passing Downs will dictate the entire game.

Bet: Rice +3.0 (-105)

Appalachian State vs. Old Dominion

Old Dominion

12th in RROE on Standard Downs (+9.7%)
80th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
28th in RROE on Passing Downs (+6.5%)
37th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Appalachian State

64th in Def Power Success Rate
123rd in Def Stuff Rate
125th in Def Line Yards
120th in Def Rush Success Rate
110th in Def Rush IsoPPP
114th in Def Standard Downs Rate
110th in PFF Grade
85th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
112th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

App State arguably has a bottom-five rush defense in all of College Football. They are abysmal on legitimately every single level. Old Dominion (ODU) is not elite at running the ball, but they honestly do not have to be. They should have plenty of chances to stay on schedule and just grind this victory away. ODU has a chance to pull off an upset here with ease.

Bet: Old Dominion +6.5 (-110) & Old Dominion ML (+215)

Toledo vs. Miami (OH)

Toledo

17th in RROE on Standard Downs (+8.9%)
29th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
40th in RROE on Passing Downs (+3.8%)
12th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Miami OH

85th in Def Power Success Rate
120th in Def Stuff Rate
117th in Def Line Yards
42nd in Def Rush Success Rate
77th in Def Rush IsoPPP
110th in Def Standard Downs Rate
50th in PFF Grade
62nd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
16th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

The one statistic that stands out to me is Miami OHâ€™s inability to force Passing Downs. Toledo will be in an optimal situation for most of the game. Miami OH is respectable in several other categories, but I just cannot see a team that ranks 120th in Def Stuff Rate, 117th in Def Line Yards and 110th in Def Standard Downs Rate stopping a formidable Toledo Offense. No need to overthink this one.

Bet: Toledo -2.0 (-110) + Toledo ML (-130) for Parlays

Tennessee vs. Alabama

Alabama

18th in RROE on Standard Downs (+8.3%)
59th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
22nd in RROE on Passing Downs (+7.1%)
111th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Tennessee

5th in Def Power Success Rate
7th in Def Stuff Rate
1st in Def Line Yards
6th in Def Rush Success Rate
125th in Def Rush IsoPPP
11th in Def Standard Downs Rate
38th in PFF Grade
5th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
111th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Alabama is a constant in this article simply because they run a conservative vanilla run-first offense. Tennessee is arguably a top-five rush defense. Their defense on Passing downs is remarkably average, but I do not view that as a concern. If Tommy Rees showed any inclination of passing more on Passing Downs, I would probably leave this game alone. Alas, he is still running the ball at an elevated rate in passing situations. Tennessee is a live dog here and could stifle Alabamaâ€™s offense.

Bet: Tennessee +9.0 (-110)

Charlotte vs. East Carolina

Charlotte

25th in RROE on Standard Downs (+6.67%)
104th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
14th in RROE on Passing Downs (+10%)
76th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

East Carolina

50th in Def Power Success Rate
17th in Def Stuff Rate
9th in Def Line Yards
5th in Def Rush Success Rate
132nd in Def Rush IsoPPP
17th in Def Standard Downs Rate
72nd in PFF Grade
2nd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
31st in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Charlotte is a rare team that has a higher RROE % on Passing Downs than Standard Downs. This is interesting because they are horrendous on Standard Downs and barely average on Passing Downs. East Carolinaâ€™s rush defense is underrated and is borderline elite. Their main weakness is allowing explosive plays. I can live with this, considering they rank top-20 in five other rushing categories. This game has the potential to get out of hand early.

Bet: East Carolina -7.0 (-110)

The Bets

ML Parlay

Old Dominion +6.5 (-110)
Auburn +6.5 (-110)
New Mexico State ML (-155)

Parlay Odds: +500 for 1.5u

Teaser

East Carolina -7.5 to -1.5
Rice +3.5 to +9.5
Tennessee +8.5 to 14.5

Teaser Odds: +170 for 2u

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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