College Football Week 8 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Oct 19, 2023

We are coming off of another fantastic weekend for this College Football totals article series. Several games were absolute no-doubters (Kentucky/Missouri and Miam OH/Western Michigan), and we had a loss like Toledo vs. Ball State that was never close.

We went 5-3 ATS and 1-1 on our Favorite Plays. Temple and North Texas were tracking to a huge total and then fell off a cliff. That happens sometimes.

But, no need to worry, we have a plethora of games to choose from this weekend. Letâ€™s dive in!

Record:

ATS: 9-6 (+2.40 units)
Favorite Plays: 3-1

College Football Week 8 IsoPPP and Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Overview

The average over/under total for a College Football game is 57.5 points, regardless of the teams, pace, weather, etc. The common thought process for most bettors and fans will be to look at the red zone statistics and see if you have two efficient teams who convert a lot of TDs. While it is a fine thought process, it is incredibly archaic. The difference between the best team in the red zone and the worst team in the red zone isn't that significant because you are only dealing with 20 yards of variance.

Also, looking at efficiency on points on a per-game basis assumes each game will be the same, which is entirely false. You need to look at it from an opportunity standpoint with more variance. We will use several advanced statistics to measure how successful the game environment is: PPO (Points Per Opportunity), IsoPPP (explosive plays), Pace, Rush Rate, Projected PPO and Projected PPO difference.

PPO, also known as finishing drives, is a statistic that extends the "Red zone" from the 20-yard line to the 40-yard line. An incredible 78% of a college football game points are scored inside the opponent's 40-yard lines. I know you are saying," Well, yeah, that's not surprising." The great thing is that it's a predictable point of emphasis. We can predict PPO based on the offensive/defensive matchup.

Essentially, you can look at a total and say, "The projected PPO needed for this total is X, and that is a difference of +/- what we need." This will determine whether or not to lean over or under on a total. Now, the other 22% of points scored are volatile, but that's where IsoPPP (explosive plays) come in. We can simplify betting over/under by looking at it from a numbers-needed standpoint and building the game script with other advanced statistics.

Glossary

PPO (Points Per Opportunity): Points scored on each drive inside an opponent's 40-yard line
IsoPPP: Explosive plays typically over 20 yards for passing plays and over 15 yards for rushing plays
PPO Projected: Projected opportunity points that are matchup-adjusted
PPO Projected Total Difference: Projected opportunity points difference needed to reach the total - Positive differences would lean over, and negative differences lean under
PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy
Pace of Play: Plays/sec a higher ranking means a faster pace of play
Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average Pass rate is 60%)

Let's dive into the eight games we will target this week.

SMU @ Temple | Over 54.5

Projected PPO Difference +2.5 points
SMU Projected Top-20 Overall IsoPPP matchup
SMU Projected Top-30 Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
SMU Projected Average Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
Temple Projected Bottom-30 Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
SMU 27th in Pace
Temple 13th in Pace
SMU 101st in PROE on Standard Downs (-4.8%)
SMU 13th in PROE on Passing Downs (+12.6%)
Temple 13th in PROE on Standard Downs (+11.6%)
Temple 21st in PROE on Passing Downs (+10%)

This matchup will be driven by the overall pace and the explosive plays from SMU. Temple has a pretty horrendous explosive matchup, but the fact they play at a fast pace will lead to more volume overall. The PROE profiles are exactly what we want, especially from a Passing Downs perspective. We always want two teams to ramp up the Passing % when we are targeting an over.

Bet: Over 54.5 (-110)

Penn State @ Ohio State | Under 45.5

Projected PPO difference -2.1 points
Penn State Projected Bottom-30 Overall IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
Penn State Projected Average Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
Ohio State Projected Bottom-30 Overall IsoPPP and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Ohio State Projected Average Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
Penn State 68th in Pace
Ohio State 70th in Pace
Penn State 90th in PROE on Standard Downs (-1.9%)
Penn State 12th in PROE on Passing Downs (+13.2%)
Ohio State 54th in PROE on Standard Downs (+2.5%)
Ohio State 42nd in PROE on Passing Downs (+5.6%)

This is the premier matchup of the weekend, and we could see it possibly be an offensive struggle. Explosive plays will be few and far between. Both teams play at an average pace and have average PROE profiles. This could be a possible replay of Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, a clean game with numerous drives that stall in between the 40s.

Bet: Under 45.5 (-110)

Mississippi State @ Arkansas | Over 49.5

Projected PPO difference +6.6 points
Mississippi State Projected Average Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Arkansas Projected Average Overall IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
Arkansas Projected Bottom-30 Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
Mississippi State 74th in Pace
Arkansas 116th in Pace
Mississippi State 79th in PROE on Standard Downs (-.5%)
Mississippi State 92nd in PROE on Passing Downs (-3.5%)
Arkansas 115th in PROE on Standard Downs (-8.2%)
Arkansas 99th in PROE on Passing Downs (-4.2%)

The angle for this game is pretty simple: The Projected PPO difference of +6.6 points is significant. Even though there will not be elite explosive matchups, average matchups can still produce points. Neither team plays at an above-average pace or has a significant PROE profile, but there will be plenty of opportunities inside the 40s, and the total is average.

Bet: Over 49.0 (-110)

Western Michigan @ Ohio | Under 52.5

Projected PPO difference -1.7 points
Western Michigan Projected Bottom-30 Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Ohio Projected Bottom-30 Overall IsoPPP and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Ohio Projected Average Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
Western Michigan 26th in Pace
Ohio 118th in Pace
Western Michigan 64th in PROE on Standard Downs (+1.9%)
Western Michigan 119th in PROE on Passing Downs (-9.5%)
Ohio 60th in PROE on Standard Downs (+1.9%)
Ohio 47th in PROE on Passing Downs (+5.1%)

If you are looking for explosive plays, this game is not for you. This game will see a ton of five-yard passes and three-yard runs. The lack of explosive plays from both teams and the methodical pace from Ohio set this game up for a low-scoring affair. Another factor is Ohio is a large favorite. If they get up numerous scores, they will be in no hurry to add to that, as is evidenced by their ranking of 118th in Pace.

Bet: Under 53.5 (-110)

Wisconsin @ Illinois | Over 42.5

Projected PPO difference +9.2 points
Wisconsin Projected Top-30 Overall IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
Wisconsin Projected Average Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
Illinois Projected Average Standard Downs IsoPPP and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Illinois Projected Bottom-30 Overall IsoPPP matchup
Wisconsin 40th in Pace
Illinois 20th in Pace
Wisconsin 62nd in PROE on Standard Downs (+1.9%)
Wisconsin 32nd in PROE on Passing Downs (+6.3%)
Illinois 48th in PROE on Standard Downs (+3.1%)
Illinois 80th in PROE on Passing Downs (-.9%)

I am always weary of a total that is under 45 and has a high Projected PPO difference. What stands out to me here is both teams play at an above-average pace, and there are several explosive matchups to exploit. On top of that, neither of these teams is looking to establish the run. Tanner Mordecai not playing in this game gives me pause, but if we are being honest, he hasnâ€™t really looked fantastic to start the year.

Bet: Over 42.5 (-110)

South Florida @ UCONN | Over 54.0

Projected PPO Difference +9.3 points
South Florida Projected Average Overall IsoPPP and Passing Downs matchups
South Flordia Projected Top-30 Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
UCONN Projected Average Standard Downs IsoPPP and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
UCONN Projected Bottom-30 Overall IsoPPP matchup
South Florida 2nd in Pace
UCONN 106th in Pace
South Florida 97th in PROE on Standard Downs (-3.5%)
South Florida 121st in PROE on Passing Downs (-10.3%)
UCONN 128th in PROE on Standard Downs (-13.6%)
UCONN 65th in PROE on Passing Downs (+1.5%)

We have a considerable Projected PPO difference of +9.3 points and a South Florida team that is ranked second in Pace. When you have a team that is ranked top 10 in Pace, that team can essentially dictate the entire game environment. There are average explosive matchups and a potential abundance of possessions inside the 40s. This can be a recipe for a total that falls in the 70s.

Bet: Over 54.0 (-110)

TCU @ Kansas State | Over 59.0

Projected PPO Difference +3.1 points
TCU Projected Average Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Kansas State Projected Top-10 Overall IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
Kansas State Projected Average Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
TCU 3rd in Pace
Kansas State in 46th in Pace
TCU 26th in PROE on Standard Downs (+6.2%)
TCU 64th in PROE on Passing Downs (+1.5%)
Kansas State 27th in PROE on Standard Downs (+6.1%)
Kansas State 124th in PROE on Passing Downs (-11.7%)

This is the type of matchup that really checks all the boxes for an over. Positive Projected PPO difference? Check. Elite explosive matchups? Check. Teams that play at a high pace? Check. Teams with a positive PROE Profile? Check. We missed on a Kansas State total two weeks ago, but that was realistically just bad luck. That game had essentially nine red-zone possessions with only three touchdowns scored. This game will play out differently.

Bet: Over 59.0 (-110)

Utah @ USC | Under 54.5

Projected PPO Difference -8.4 points
Utah Projected Bottom-30 Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
USC Projected Average Overall IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
USC Projected Bottom-30 Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
Utah 129th in Pace
USC 61st in Pace
Utah 114th in PROE on Standard Downs (-8.1%)
Utah 127th in PROE on Passing Downs (-14.4%)
USC 16th in PROE on Standard Downs (+10.4%)
USC 58th in PROE on Passing Downs (+2.8%)

I am always hesitant to take a USC under in 2023, but this seems to be the spot where it should hit. The Projected PPO Difference is -8.4 points, and Utah has grotesque explosive matchups across the board. On the other hand, USC just has average explosive matchups. Utah will be the engine that slows this game to a halt. They are 129th in Pace and have a bottom-20 PROE Profile. They will look to shorten this game and control the entire game script. This will limit the amount of possessions for the high-flying USC offense.

Bet: Under 54.5 (-110)

Favorite Plays

TCU/Kansas State Over 59.0 (-110)
USC/Utah Under 54.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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