College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (2022)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 9 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma.
And check out the rest of our game previews for Week 9:
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
- Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
- Ohio State vs. Penn State
- Florida vs. Georgia
- Kentucky vs. Tennessee
- Michigan State vs. Michigan
- Stanford vs. UCLA
- Arizona State vs. Colorado
- Charlotte vs. Rice
- Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP
- Louisville vs. Wake Forest
- North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
- Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
- Iowa vs. Northwestern
- Miami (OH) vs. Akron
- TCU vs. West Virginia
- Illinois vs. Nebraska
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 9 Best Bets >>
College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Iowa State (+1.5) vs. Oklahoma
Iowa State has lost four-straight. Oklahoma seemed to get back on track in its last game, a 52-42 win against Kansas. But this tough-as-nails Cyclones team feels like a terrible matchup for this cotton-soft Sooners outfit.
Iowa State has played a top-20 SOS but has not yet been beaten by more than seven points. Since HC Matt Campbell's second year, ISU has been beaten by 17 points once, and never by more. Even when out-gunned, ISU doesn't get overwhelmed, it keeps games close.
When OU QB Dillon Gabriel has been healthy, the Sooners have been able to overcome bouts of offensive inefficiency through explosive plays. That isn't likely to be an option on Saturday: Iowa State's defense ranks No. 3 in IsoPPP, a Bill Connelly metric measuring per-play value. The 'Clones don't cede long offensive gains. You can't beat them that way.
Oklahoma RB Eric Gray is averaging a hair less than 100 rushing YPG. He isn't likely to crack the century mark against ISU's stout run defense. Yards should be there for Gabriel if he's willing to take the underneath stuff ISU's zone-coverage will give up. But though you can nick ISU up the field in this way, the Cyclones' defense constricts in scoring opportunities, ranking No. 14 in suppressing points.
Iowa State's No. 74 SP+ offense isn't very good, granted. But OU's pass defense is going to have all kinds of problems with star ISU WR Xavier Hutchinson. And if ISU's defense is doing its job, ISU will do what it always does in these situations - take what you give it, and force you to tackle.
OU's defense is as generous as it gets in those regards, including a No. 123 standing in tackling success rate. Hutchinson, by the way, is top-20 nationally among receivers in both PFF receiving grade and missed tackles forced.
My handicap suggests that the most successful thing both offenses will do is the short- and intermediate-passing games, while both running games could play down. So an additional angle on this game is hunting for overs on QB completions and WR receptions on both sides, while hitting the unders on rushing yardage for each lead back.
Either way, we see the Cyclones pulling off the small home upset. And I'm contractually obligated to mention that ISU HC Matt Campbell is 31-17 (64.6%) ATS an underdog, and 5-1-1 ATS career against Oklahoma.
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