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College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

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The last weekend in October brings us some scary spots for favorites across the country. A lack of high-profile marquee matchups brings some sleepy opportunities for big favorites. Some of these teams could be seeing ghosts if they're looking ahead to the grind of November. Here are a few of my favorite longshot upset picks this week.

College Football Week 9 Odds & Picks

Oklahoma Sooners (-9.5) at Kansas Jayhawks (+300)

After the win over Texas a few weeks back, Oklahoma could see the light at the end of the undefeated regular season tunnel. The bye week that followed came at the perfect time and the walk over a UCF team they were nearly three-touchdown favorites against was pedestrian, or so they hoped. Instead, UCF came out and punched the Sooners in the mouth. The Golden Knights were a two-point conversion away from potentially sending the game to overtime in Norman. 

The Sooners will travel to Lawrence to take on a Kansas team that is 13th in the nation in SP+ offense. QB Jason Bean went off in a loss to Oklahoma State last Saturday and has all the confidence in the world going into a matchup with a top-10 opponent. Although the Sooners have been ranked 23rd in SP+ defense, they've given up points in each of the last two games against strong offenses. Like last year against the Sooners, Kansas should be able to put up points, especially at home. I love the Jayhawks’ chances to hang tight and pull off a big upset in a Big 12 shootout.

Michigan State Spartans (+230) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-7)

Things hit rock bottom for the Spartans against their rivals on Saturday. A 49-0 drubbing at the hands of the #2 team in the nation looks bleak, but when you take into account that Michigan has made every opponent look like that, it's not surprising. Minnesota is far from the class of Michigan and the Spartans should have more success. 

You truly have to wonder if the Spartans are still going to fight for this coaching staff and for each other, but the previous two performances give me hope. Two weeks ago, the Spartans led 24-6 before the wheels fell off in the fourth quarter. Before that, they led 16-10 in the third quarter before giving up 16 straight to lose to Iowa. Obviously, the blown leads are concerning, but the Spartans are only missing the ability to finish these games. 

Minnesota is not a team that instills confidence that they're really capable of putting teams away either. The Golden Gophers are coming off an emotional and controversial win over Iowa that nearly saw them give up a game-winning punt return touchdown before it was called back for illegal signals. Like the Spartans, Minnesota's offense ranks in the 90s for SP+. The weather in Minneapolis is expected to be cold so it's safe to expect a Big Ten slugfest. The first team to 14 could win. 

Low-scoring games mean one or two key plays could make all the difference. Michigan State has had difficulty finishing games this season, but this Minnesota team hasn't impressed in that fashion either. These teams are way too closely rated for the Gophers to be this big of a favorite. I'm going to back the Spartans at their lowest to break this losing streak and pull out their first Big Ten win of 2023.

USC Trojans (-10.5) at California Golden Bears (+360)

Going solely off of football reasons, it's hard to find how Cal beats USC on Saturday. USC's offense has been elite, ranked first overall in SP+ offensive ratings while Cal is a far cry from best at 65th. Meanwhile, both defenses sit around average in FBS. Cal is an underdog of almost two touchdowns and the stats show those number makes sense. However, you have to wonder where the mental factor is for the Trojans.

Both of these teams are coming off of losses to the Utah Utes. Cal had all week to prepare for USC with the bye while the home loss for the Trojans, however, is fresh in their minds. USC now has two losses on the season, all but eliminating them from the national championship picture. The Pac-12 title is still alive, but games against Oregon, Washington, and UCLA still loom after the Bears. USC could very well be overlooking Cal here, which would be a bad idea with their defense.

In addition, QB Caleb Williams has likely lost his opportunity for a second Heisman and a chance at a national championship. His sights are likely now set on being the first pick in the NFL Draft. You have to wonder where his motivation will be going forward. Williams is the engine of this team and if he's not 100% in on this season, the Trojans could be in trouble. This is perhaps one of my riskier longshot picks this year, but if USC has lost its focus or motivation, Cal will be right there to pull off the upset.


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