College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 9. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.
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College Football Week 9 Picks & Predictions
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh (Thursday)
The Over is the play here, even coming near the mid-60s as these teams average a combined 74 PPG. Syracuse is currently 6th in Time of Possession, which normally would make a difference, but Pitt counters that by playing at the 4th fastest Pace of play. Pitt has had high totals when less than 30 minutes in TOP with 28 against Cincinnati (23:34), 38 vs WVU (23:43) and 34 at UNC (29:19). The quick pace from Pitt has produced a Top-10 scoring offense (40.8 PPG) and the high TOP for Syracuse should help them wear down the Pitt D with their 2nd ranked passing offense (365.2 Passing YPG). The offenses have been the catalyst to these teams enjoying an 11-1 combined record. That trend should continue in this game.
Pick: Over 62.5
Indiana vs. Washington
The Hoosiers have been on fire and even the starting QB being out for this game has not given the public any pause to bet them in this game. The Indiana defense has been outstanding and the Washington offense has had issues. Washington is 23rd in Total Offensive yards per game but that has only amounted to 24.1 PPG (94th). The Huskies have been great at passing the ball, but they have been down in the 4th quarter in four of six games against the FBS and have had to pass to try to three of those four games. Indiana is 7th in scoring and total defense, 24th against the pass and 4th against the run statistically. Indiana's 21 sacks are tied for 14th Nationally and Washington is 81st with 15 sacks allowed and grade 115th in Pass Block grade according to PFF. The atmosphere will be electric with College Gameday on hand in Bloomington and these teams are trending in opposite directions right now. Lay the points and take the Indiana.
Pick: Indiana -6.5
Notre Dame vs. Navy
This is one of the bigger system leans of the week, likely because while Navy has been impressive, the competition they have played has not. Navy had a strong win against Memphis, but the combined record of their other FBS opponents is 7-21. Notre Dame has been beaten up on defense with injuries but has still dominated since the NIU loss. The average score in the last three games for ND has been 37-15. Notre Dame will be the most formidable opponent for the Navy offense. Navy has only one game with fewer than 200 rushing yards, and Notre Dame hasn't allowed a 200-yard rushing game from an opponent. NIU, who beat them, is the only team with over 150 rushing yards against the Irish, but the offense is why they lost that one. Notre Dame has averaged 41 PPG over the last five games, and while Navy hasn't allowed many points, they have faced some bottom-level scoring offenses: Temple (119th), UAB (113th), Air Force (131st), Charlotte (101st). Memphis was the only good offense Navy played, and while they won, Memphis put up 659 yards and 44 points. Notre Dame is the best opponent Navy has faced by far, and our system shows oddsmakers may overrate Navy. This 'home' game for Navy is at Met Life stadium, which will likely be in Notre Dame's favor. Lay the points.
Pick: Notre Dame -13
Illinois vs. Oregon
Last Week was the first big spread Oregon covered all season. Oregon was favored by 17.5 against Boise State and won by 3, 24 against UCLA and won by 21, 22.5 against MSU and won by 21. Illinois held tough on the road against Penn State and have straight-up won as underdogs against Kansas, Nebraska, and Michigan. Oregon will probably have some explosive plays, but Illinois has played the 'bend but don't break Defense' well (22nd in Scoring defense – 18.1 PPG Allowed), 'playing up' in games as underdogs. Oregon is a little beat up coming into this game, and with rain in the forecast, they may be looking just to win and get out healthy as the clock ticks down late. Oregon should win this game by double digits but three touchdowns is probably a bit much in this one.
Pick: Illinois +21.5
Penn State vs. Wisconsin
This pick doesn't match the current trends, but it does not seem to be enough points, even in a 'look-ahead' spot and on the road for the Nittany Lions. Wisconsin has started to find a rhythm recently, winning big and covering the last three games but the oddsmakers may have given them a bit too much respect here as our system has this closer to a double-digit win rather than a TD win for PSU. Wisconsin has been able to mask the passing issues by running the ball during this streak at a 60.7% clip. Penn State is currently 10th in rushing defense, allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground, and opponents have to pass at an over 50% clip to keep up. Wisconsin QB Locke has been solid in replacement of starter Tyler Van Dyke, but if he is forced to pass, his 5.4% Turnover Worthy Play rate (144th of 165 qualified QBs) is likely to show up and allow the Penn State defense to make a play. Penn State may be looking ahead but the spread is not big enough to depend on the Badgers. Lay the points and take PSU.
Pick: Penn State -6.5
