College Football Week 9 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets

by Scott Bogman |
Oct 26, 2023

This season has been a roller coaster so far, and I expect nothing less in Week 9! Florida State waited until late in the fourth quarter to cover for us and made it a winning week!

Here are the bets I like for Week 9 of the College Football season!

College Football Week 9 Picks & Predictions

Week 8 Record: 6-4 | 2023 Record: 40-40 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

#4 Florida State @ Wake Forest

This is a game where I like the total more, but I will take the under. We saw Florida State look a little flat offensively last week against Duke. Even though they put up points and yards, 21 of their 38 last week came in the fourth quarter. Dukeâ€™s defense was gassed, and the Seminoles figured out to just stack the box because Riley Leonard was injured, and the Blue Devilsâ€™ passing game was ineffective.

Wake Forest has been 1-5 playing to the Over this year, and the only game they put up points was against Vanderbilt in Week 2. FSU has been a very effective offense and could get most of this total, but the Wake Forest offense is what concerns me. Wake could be down starting QB Mitch Griffis, who not only didnâ€™t start last week but wasnâ€™t even at the game for undisclosed reasons. Mike Norvell said FSU will prepare as if heâ€™ll play. Still, with backup Michael Kerns out until early November, they may have to go back to third-stringer Santino Marucci, who was 12/21, 151-1-2 against Pitt last week.

Wake has been a bend-donâ€™t-break defense, and if they can control the ball a bit (FSU is well below average in TOP), I think that will get us there. Wake has been above average statistically on defense and grades inside the top 25 teams in total defense on PFF, as does FSU. With this being a road game for the Noles, Iâ€™ll take a shot on both defenses playing well and this game staying under.

Bet: UNDER 51.0 (-110)

#1 Georgia (-14.5) @ Florida

The cocktail party! Both teams are rested up before this one, coming off the bye week. I think that benefits Georgia here since they have two weeks to adjust the offense without their biggest playmaker, Brock Bowers. Georgia has been a top-five passing offense so far, but they could run a ton with their No. 1 target down. Florida was run over and wiped out of the game by Kentucky when the â€œBig Blue Wallâ€ and Ray Davis torched them for 329 yards. I donâ€™t know that Georgia will be that successful, but it should be the way they manage the game.

The big difference to me is on the other side of the ball because UGA has been thumping opposing offenses. Georgia is only allowing 14 PPG, and the biggest total they have given up this season is 21 to UAB. Theyâ€™ve held South Carolina, Auburn and Kentucky to 20 points or fewer. Georgia actually hasnâ€™t been piling up big sack numbers and ranks 108th with only 12 sacks so far this season. Somehow, Georgia is still leading the country in third down% against at 23.6%, so I think we should see some punting in this one.

Graham Mertz has been great this year, I begrudgingly admit, but the only defense they have played even in Georgiaâ€™s ballpark was Utah in Week 1. They put up yards but not scores, ending with just 11 points. Florida has had some issues on third downs, too, converting only 33.3% to come in at 109th so far this season. Georgia is top 10 in almost all defensive stats, including scoring, passing, rushing and plays over 10+ yards allowed. They are top 25 in all PFF team grades outside of pass rush.

I just donâ€™t want to bet against Georgia coming off a bye even with Bowers being down. I know losing Bowers is a big adjustment, but I think Georgia is closer to 20 points better than Florida, as they have been the past two seasons (22 and 24-point margin of victory for the Bulldogs). This rivalry has been back and forth, but UGA is on top now, and I think they will win going away!

Bet: Georgia -14.5 (-108)

#20 Duke @ #18 Louisville

This is another game where I like the Under! Riley Leonard played last week for Duke, but he clearly wasnâ€™t 100% in that game. Once FSU realized he couldnâ€™t move or throw well, they stacked the box and stopped the run. Duke was held to 53 second-half rushing yards after gaining 144 in the first half. The Blue Devils had only 76 total pass yards in the game.

Louisville has RB Jahwar Jordan questionable to play in this game. That would be a massive loss, as he accounts for over 50% of Louisvilleâ€™s rushing yards, 25% of total yards and 33% of TDs. The Cardinals are also down starting RT Renato Brown, as heâ€™s out for the season with an undisclosed injury.

Both of these offenses are gimpy, and both defenses are strong. If Louisville is forced to pass more with Jordan down or less than 100%, it will play right into Dukeâ€™s hands. Duke has a top-10 graded coverage unit. They know that Louisville QB Jack Plummer has thrown eight INTs, and they will be hunting for them.

The total is low here, but Iâ€™m going to stick with the under. The biggest part of both offenses is playing at less than 100%, making it hard to see this game going over.

Bet: UNDER 46.0 (-110)

Pitt @ #14 Notre Dame

Pitt got their big signature win against Louisville, and that was nice. Still, I feel like Notre Dame will thump them. With Clemson coming up on the road next week, this is a bit of a look-ahead spot for ND. So thereâ€™s a weird feel to this one, but the Fighting Irish are a different beast for Pitt.

The good news is that Notre Dame is coming off a bye week, and Pitt isnâ€™t going to have enough to come close to even a distracted team in ND. Against Louisville was the only game in which Notre Dameâ€™s Sam Hartman has thrown an INT. As long as heâ€™s not doing that, Pitt doesnâ€™t stand a chance in this one. Pitt is 88th in scoring and 115th in total yards. The Panthers have been held to 21 points or fewer four times this season. The five-turnover game against Louisville was the only game against an FBS opponent in which Pitt scored over 30 points.

Notre Dame is a top-10 talent team that just stalled out a great offense in USC (20 points and just over 300 yards with 34+ minutes of possession). As long as they arenâ€™t distracted by Clemson coming up, they will beat up on Pitt and force turnovers. When ND has the lead, theyâ€™ll lean on Pitt with the run game and star RB Audric Estime who is top 10 in rushing yards and TDs so far this season. The Pitt defense is above average overall at 48th. Yet, in their five losses, theyâ€™ve allowed over 163 rushing yards per game, which would rank 100th nationally.

Pitt is overmatched in this one, and it wonâ€™t be pretty. Give me the Irish going away!

Bet: Notre Dame -20.5 (-112)

#21 Tennessee @ Kentucky

These teams should come out firing, coming off of losses. Tennessee lost to Alabama, and Kentucky got run over by Missouri in a disappointing loss at home. I took the Under last week, and it didnâ€™t hit because Alabama put up points on Tennessee, yet I donâ€™t think Kentucky will be able to run effectively in this one.

The big question to me is, can Tennesseeâ€™s defense slow down the rushing attack of Ray Davis and the Big Blue Wall? Tennessee currently ranks 25th against the run. Against Georgia, Kentucky put up only 55 rushing yards. The Wildcats did put up 179 rushing yards against Missouri, but they didnâ€™t finish drives and ended up shutout in the fourth quarter.

Bama beat Tennessee last week with big plays in the second half. The Crimson Tide had 12 plays over 10 yards in the game, with eight coming in the second half. They scored 27 points in the second half after only scoring seven in the first half. The question to me is, can Devin Leary and the offense produce big plays for Kentucky? They are 99th in plays over 10 yards, and Tennessee is 13th in plays over 10 yards allowed. Devin Leary will have to win it for Kentucky, and I just donâ€™t trust him to do it.

Tennessee isnâ€™t a scary offense by any stretch, ranking 44th in PPG, 76th in passing and seventh in rushing. The Volsâ€™ rushing offense is strong with three solid RBs in Jalen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson, but they are fairly one-dimensional when QB Joe Milton isnâ€™t on. Kentucky is strong against the run at 13th, and they will be playing behind a rowdy home crowd.

Iâ€™ll go with the Under, as these teams seem to match up well defensively, and I donâ€™t have a lot of faith in QBs Leary and Milton to turn it into a shootout.

Bet: UNDER 51.5 (-115)

Other Bets I Like:

West Virginia @ UCF -7.0 (-105)
#17 North Carolina -11.0 @ Georgia Tech (-112)
BYU @ Texas OVER 50.0 (-110)
Washington State @ Arizona State OVER 51.5 (-110)
Memphis @ North Texas OVER 68.5 (-108)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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