College Football Week 9 Picks: Sleepers & Longshots (2024)
Betting on college football long-shots comes with substantial risk, but with that risk comes the potential for great reward. We’ve looked hard at several matchups in Week 9 and believe we have identified a few long shots worth betting on this weekend. On paper, these teams should not win, but the game is not played on paper.
If a bounce/call or two goes their way, they could pull off the upset and make lucky bettors that roll the dice on them some money.
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College Football Week 9 Long-shots
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Notre Dame (-12.5) vs. Navy (+360)
The Fighting Irish and Midshipmen will use similar game plans this weekend. Neither has much of a passing game to talk about, but they both have solid rushing attacks. Notre Dame averages just over 200 yards per game on the ground, while Navy’s average is closer to 275.
So, the key to the game will be stopping the run, right? Yes and no.
Navy has one of the best run games in the country (No. 4). But as good as they are at running, they struggle to stop the run (No. 91, 162.8 ypg allowed). Notre Dame on the other hand, has one of the better run defenses (No. 29, 113.1 ypg allowed).
However, the trick for Notre Dame will not just be slowing down Blake Horvath and the Navy run game but keeping it from getting on track. Why? Between Navy’s defense causing turnovers and top-notch special teams play, the Midshipmen often have short fields on offense, giving them a field position advantage.
Due to this advantage, the Notre Dame defense will not have much room for error. But Navy’s run game will be too good for them to stop it.
Pick: Navy Moneyline (+360)
If Navy does not win this one outright (and they could), they’ll keep it close and win against the spread.
Georgia Tech (+285) vs. Virginia Tech (-10.5)
I can think of only two reasons why this spread is as large as it is and has grown since it opened at -9. The status of Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King is still up in the air, and too many bettors are not aware the Yellow Jackets are good this season.
A solid quarterback can make a bad offense good and a good one great. Haynes is not good enough to make this offense great, but he is enough to make it above average. He is more dynamic than his backup, Zach Pyron. Haynes is a much better passer and the team’s second-leading rusher. Without him, the offense suffers, as was evident last week when Haynes missed the Notre Dame game.
However, even if Haynes is out, Pyron is a capable game manager. He will not win the game for GT, but he will not be the reason they lose. Georgia Tech’s run game (even minus Haynes) is good enough to carry the offense against the Hokies.
The Hokies struggle to throw the ball but are a good run team. However, their lack of flexibility will hurt them against a solid Georgia Tech run defense.
Pick: Georgia Tech Moneyline (+285)
With Haynes, the Yellow Jackets win this game outright. Without him, the rest of the team is good enough to beat Virginia Tech, but taking the points is a better bet.