College Football Week 9 Rush Rate Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Oct 25, 2023

Going 4-4 ATS is not an ideal week by any measure, but the potential to really bust through was there.

Tennessee fell apart in the second half and Auburn could not find a way to get it done amidst numerous opportunities. We had several games on both ends of the spectrum. Army was just a bad process, taking 30-point underdogs regardless of identity is something you will probably never feel good about, especially if the talent disparity of the rosters is that obvious. New Mexico State and Rice were no doubters and provided little sweat into the second half.

This week there are fewer games than our normal eight because a decent amount of rush-oriented teams are on bye. Letâ€™s dive in into our College Football Week 9 Rush Rate picks!

College Football Week 9 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Record

ATS: 11-7 (+.90 units)
Parlay: 0-2 (-4.50 units)
Teaser: 1-1 (-2.10 units)
Overall: -5.10 units

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for:

Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt

UMASS @ Army

Army

3rd in RROE on Standard Downs (+22.3%)
48th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
2nd in RROE on Passing Downs (+29.7%)
97th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

UMASS

111th in Def Power Success Rate
131st in Def Stuff Rate
133rd in Def Line Yards
126th in Def Standard Downs Rate
129th in Def Rush Success Rate
60th in Def Rush IsoPPP
133rd in Def PFF Rush Grade
133rd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
104th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

I know Army burned us last week, but this is the perfect bounce-back situation. UMASS is bottom-30 in every single advanced rushing category outside of allowing explosiveness. Army could possibly not punt once in this game. I expect them to control the entire game script and have their best game of the season.

Bet: Army -10.0 (-110)

Tulsa @ SMU

Tulsa

7th in RROE on Standard Downs (+12.9%)
114th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
22nd in RROE on Passing Downs (+6.4%)
96th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

SMU

10th in Def Power Success Rate
27th in Def Stuff Rate
37th in Def Line Yards
25th in Def Standard Downs Rate
20th in Def Rush Success Rate
24th in Def Rush IsoPPP
26th in Def PFF Rush Grade
26th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
14th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

SMU is a heavy favorite in this game. I am normally weary of large favorites, but this game could easily get out of hand early. SMU has an elite rushing defense and forces Passing Downs at a substantial level. I can honestly say this game has the potential to be over by halftime; No need to overthink it.

Bet: SMU -20.5 (-110)

West Virginia @ UCF

West Virginia

11th in RROE on Standard Downs (+14.5%)
39th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
13th in RROE on Passing Downs (+11.9%)
50th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

UCF

104th in Def Power Success Rate
94th in Def Stuff Rate
127th in Def Line Yards
83rd in Def Standard Downs Rate
128th in Def Rush Success Rate
63rd in Def Rush IsoPPP
65th in Def PFF Rush Grade
95th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
125th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

We have a new team to the column, welcome in West Virginia. They have a solid RROE and are efficient on both Standard and Passing Downs. UCF is pretty abysmal when it comes to stopping the run. UCF ranks 127th in Def Line Yards and 128th in Def Rush Success Rate. These rankings are a recipe for disaster. West Virginia should be able to stay ahead of the chains and keep this game closer than the spread indicates.

Bet: West Virginia +7.0 (-110)

Oregon @ Utah

Utah

22nd in RROE on Standard Downs (+7.7%)
103rd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
4th in RROE on Passing Downs (+17.4%)
20th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Oregon

5th in Def Power Success Rate
68th in Def Stuff Rate
74th in Def Line Yards
76th in Def Standard Downs Rate
70th in Def Rush Success Rate
43rd in Def Rush IsoPPP
38th in Def PFF Rush Grade
77th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
38th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Normally, we would want defenses that we are facing to be bottom-30 in a litany of rush categories, but sometimes, we can find value in targeting high-profile defenses that are just average. Oregon is average to slightly above average against the run. This Utah team has the potential to end Oregonâ€™s playoff hopes. After playing spoiler last week against USC, they should be prepared to do the same.

Bet: Utah +6.5 (-108) + ML (+205)

UCONN @ Boston College

Boston College

29th in RROE on Standard Downs (+5.3%)
5th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
29th in RROE on Passing Downs (+5.6%)
39th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

UCONN

90th in Def Power Success Rate
34th in Def Stuff Rate
41st in Def Line Yards
100th in Def Standard Downs Rate
66th in Def Rush Success Rate
94th in Def Rush IsoPPP
25th in PFF Grade
79th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
64th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

On the surface, UCONN is decent against the run. What worries me is their inability to force passing downs. If Boston College is constantly in Standard Downs, this could be a long day for UCONN. I just do not see this defense holding up over the entirety of the game.

Bet: Boston College -14.5 (-108)

The Bets

Parlay

Army -10.0 (-110)
Utah +6.5 (-108)
West Virginia +7.0 (-110)

Parlay Odds: +581 for 1 unit

Teaser

Army -10.0 to -4.0
Utah +6.5 to 12.5
SMU -20.5 to -13.5

Teaser Odds: +176 for 2u

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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