Colorado State vs. Middle Tennessee State: College Football Week 4 Odds & Picks (2023)

Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s game: Colorado State vs. Middle Tennessee State.

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Top College Football Odds & Picks: Colorado State vs. Middle Tennessee State

Middle Tennessee was a cash-cow for us last year, because they were such a matchup-specific handicap. They’re looking very similar this fall.

Over the summer, we talked about how MTSU had arguably the CUSA’s best front-seven, but that its secondary could be problematic. Offensively, MTSU remains an extremely pass-happy outfit that gets the ball out super-quick and never throws down the field. The Blue Raiders’ run game is only used for get-you-over purposes.

MTSU QB1 Nicholas Vattiato is completing near 70% of his passes, but with only 5.5 adjusted air yards per attempt. He is the only qualified FBS quarterback who is averaging less than 2 seconds per dropback to throw (1.95).

If your defense can disrupt MTSU’s quick-hit passing game, and if your offense can put consistent pressure on MTSU’s poor secondary, you’re going to control the Blue Raiders from start-to-finish.

This is, in essence, what Colorado State is built to do. We are not backing the Rams because of their inspired performance last week against Colorado. Iin fact, that late-night double-OT affair is one of the few things that concerns us about this handicap… will CSU have similar energy one week later?

If they do, the Rams will win their first game of the season on Saturday. The Rams had a fabulous strategy for disrupting CU’s quick-hit passes last week. CSU plays man-coverage on a top-10 national percentage of its plays, its safeties are skilled at crashing down on the catch point for added support, and the Rams rank No. 6 in tackle rate – they tend to put out fires before they start.

The Buffs’ passing offense finally did break through last Saturday and ultimately stole the game in OT. But CSU won’t need to change its defensive strategy much this week against MTSU, a team that does a lot of the same kinds of things as the Buffaloes, just not as well.

MTSU also will be at a matchup disadvantage when CSU has the ball. The Rams utterly destroyed the Buffaloes last week with shallow-crosses and other short in-breaking route concepts, with WRs Tory Horton and Louis Brown both going ballistic.

MTSU’s defense has greatly underwhelmed so far, with the caveat that two of its three opponents have come from the SEC. But there has been one area where MTSU’s D has been advertised: Getting after the quarterback. MTSU’s pass-rush frustrated Mizzou’s offensive line so much that Tigers HC Eli Drinkowitz vowed to make changes after the game.

What’s the best thing to take away an opponent’s blitzing aggression? The short passing game! The pass-happy Colorado State offense currently ranks No. 5 in pressure rate in part because CSU’s offensive line is far better than it was last year, and in part because of the quick-hitting concepts.

CSU QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi went 20-for-22 on short-center throws against CU for 204 yards, 10 first downs and a TD. One of the incompletions was a drop. The other one was Shilo Sanders’ pick-six in the 1Q. This specific play was charted as a short-middle throw because the throw was just-inside the left hashmark. Even though Fowler-Nicolosi threw it from the opposite hashmark.

That concept – a four-yard comeback route from the slot receiver – was entirely different from the ones CSU would ultimately burn the Buffs with. It was both a poor play-call – a low-upside, minimal-gain concept where the first-read required the quarterback to fire to the opposite hash in time to beat a crashing-down defender – and a bad decision not to abort by Nicolosi, whose eyes never strayed from the intended target.

CSU’s offense started humming when it started pounding the short in-breaking concepts over the true middle of the field. These were freebie completions that came with YAC opportunities. Expect to see a ton more of that against an MTSU defense that will be vulnerable to it.

We’re also on the moneyline in this one. We don’t consider a Rams win to be an upset.

The pick: Colorado State +3 (play to pick ‘em)

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Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that’s it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it’s called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That’s it. The moneyline doesn’t use favorites or underdogs, it’s totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they’re weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don’t matter, they just need to win the game. But because it’s safer to take them straight-up without points, you’ll have to risk more when you make the bet — remember, they’re seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it’s a riskier bet — they’re seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog — +220 on the moneyline. You’d win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they’re also easy to understand. For major conferences, you’ll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It’s simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don’t vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they’re going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.

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