Colorado State vs. Washington State: College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks (Saturday)
College football is back! The 2023 college football season kicked off with an exciting but small Week 0 slate. Now the rest of the teams get to join in on the fun with the start of Week 1. We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s Week 1 game: Colorado State vs. Washington State.
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Top College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks: Colorado State vs. Washington State
Another game where I disagree with the market on both teams. HC Jay Norvell's first season in Fort Collins was done in by cluster injuries that decimated his offensive line. The Rams should not be priced like a typical team coming off a 3-9 - improvement is guaranteed.
Playing behind a roughshod offensive line as a redshirt freshman, CSU QB Clay Millen completed 72.2% of his passes on 8.2 YPA. Millen will have his coming-out party this fall. CSU has one of the G5's best WR corps, led by future NFL WR Tory Horton.
That unit could pose a problem for a Wazzu defense that is guaranteed to fall off in 2023. Star LB Daiyan Henley was a R3 pick in April, and Wazzu additionally lost LB Francisco Mauigoa to Miami and LB Travion Brown to Arizona State. Only five starters return on a unit under the direction of a new DC.
CSU's defense, on the other hand, is likely to be better. That unit has quietly slashed its PPG allowed average from 35.8 to 28.3 to 26.9 the past two seasons. And with eight starters back, I think they'll cut that number once again.
Wazzu's offense was also hit hard by the portal - WSU lost 26 transfers and signed only 10 - with WR De'Zhaun Stribling going to Oklahoma State, WR Donovan Ollie transferring to Cincinnati, and OL Jarrett Kingston defecting to USC. And, of course, OC Eric Morris left for North Texas.
For Wazzu's offense not to lose ground, QB Cam Ward needs to be significantly better. You could say I'm pessimistic about those prospects. Last year, of the 87 FBS QBs who attempted at least 230 passes, Ward finished No. 83 in PFF passing grade. Among that group, Ward finished top-15 in PFF turnover-worthy throws and bottom-7 in big-time throws.
This is a prime opportunity for a much-improved Rams team to ambush a Power 5 opponent at home.
The pick: Colorado State +11.5
Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners
Game Total
Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.
ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42
tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.
Moneyline
The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.
For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.
ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)
tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.
Player Props
Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.
ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California? Over 250 or Under 250
tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.
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