Colts vs. Cowboys: NFL Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 13)
Why didn’t the NFL flex out of this game? Do they really want to torture us through another Matt Ryan primetime game?
Those are my initial thoughts regarding this week’s Sunday Night Football showdown. But I guess that’s why they invented gambling; to make games involving the washed-up Matt Ryan more interesting.
On paper, the Cowboys should trounce the Jeff Saturday-led Colts. But can we really lay the heavy number with Dallas? Let’s break down this Sunday night showdown.
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Colts vs. Cowboys: NFL Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 13)
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) | Total 44
Cowboys led by elite defense
After a breakout 2021 campaign, many (including myself) expected regression for the Dallas Cowboys defense. But if we learned anything this season, it’s that Dallas’ defense is legitimate and this team’s strength.
The Dallas defense is tops in the league in DVOA, ranking first in pass defense and 10th against the run. The Cowboys are also fifth in yards per play allowed and lead the league by a wide margin with 45 sacks.
If there’s an area where teams can exploit the Cowboys’ defense, it’s on the ground. Dallas is just 17th in defensive line adjusted line yards allowed and is below average in both stuff rate and power success rate. That could play into Indianapolis’ hands, as the Colts will be content to shorten the game and keep the offense ahead of the chains with Jonathan Taylor and the ground game.
Offensively, Dallas is also hitting its stride with Dak Prescott healthy. Dallas has put up at least 24 points in all five of Prescott’s starts since he returned from injury. The backfield tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard has found its stride, as Dallas ranks sixth in rushing DVOA. The Cowboys’ offensive line is pushing piles, too, ranking seventh in adjusted line yards, first in power success, and fifth in stuff rate.
Colts held back by Matt Ryan and terrible line play
When the Indianapolis Colts acquired Matt Ryan in the offseason, it was viewed as a win-now addition of a veteran quarterback who was held back by a terrible situation. Well, it turns out Matt Ryan was actually completely washed up. Ryan ranks 25th in the league in quarterback rating and appears scared to throw downfield, averaging just 6.8 yards per pass attempt.
We didn’t expect Indianapolis’ offensive line to completely erode seemingly overnight. The Colts rank 30th in adjusted line yards and have given up the most sacks in the league to this point. The Colts’ offensive line could be the Achilles’ heel once more against this ferocious Cowboys pass rush.
Defensively, Indianapolis is respectable, ranking sixth in opponent yards per play and 13th in DVOA. Indy can stuff the run, ranking fourth in adjusted line yards allowed, and has racked up 31 sacks on the year. The Colts are also respectable on the back end, with Stephon Gilmore and Kenny Moore in the secondary.
Game Pick & Prediction
The Cowboys are clearly the better team, but I’m squeamish, laying double digits with them in a non-conference game. This Colts game also marks a lull point in Dallas’ schedule, with two more AFC South opponents on deck after this game. I could see the Cowboys showing a little less offensively than they normally would as they set their sights on a Christmas Eve date with Philadelphia.
Because of that, I’m more interested in the total. I don’t see how Indianapolis will move the ball against a Dallas front seven that should dominate this matchup. However, the Indy defense is still playing hard and could limit Elliott and Pollard from the backfield.
As I said above, this game should’ve been flexed out of the primetime slot. And I think we’ll be treated to an ugly conclusion to Week 13.
The pick: Under 44 (-105)
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