Colts vs. Cowboys: NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 13)
On Sunday Night, the Colts will head to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. The Colts are playing a primetime game for the second straight week after losing at home to Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football last week. Dallas, on the other hand, is coming off a Thanksgiving win over the Giants.
With a spread on the game of Cowboys -10.5 and a total of 44.5, the books expect a big Cowboys win. I love the value offered on the three-leg parlay below, via Draftkings.
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Colts vs. Cowboys: NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 13)
Leg 1: Colts to lose a fumble (+110)
37-year-old QBs like Matt Ryan aren’t built to take hits from the Cowboys' pass rush. Ryan turns the ball over with frequency – his 13 fumbles on the season are the most in the NFL. This includes two fumbles against the Steelers last week, one of which was lost for a turnover.
The Cowboys’ defense is, by many measures, the best in the NFL. They own a 51% Pass Rush Win Rate, which is third in the NFL. This is due in large part to the stellar play of likely Defensive Player Of the Year Micah Parsons. The Colts, on the other hand, have a 48% Pass Block Win Rate – this ranks second-worst in the NFL.
In a game where the Colts will likely need to throw frequently, I expect Matt Ryan to take some hits. Dallas has forced 15 fumbles this year, second in the NFL. I think they'll force one or two more on Sunday night, and love the odds that they recover one of those given this price.
Leg 2: Ezekiel Elliott O49.5 Rush Yards (-140)
After Ezekiel Elliott's knee injury, he eased back into action in a blowout win over the Vikings in Week 11. He posted 15 carries for 42 yards. In Week 12 against the Giants, Zeke picked up steam, registering 92 yards on 16 carries. I expect him to get even more opportunities against the Colts this week.
While Tony Pollard appears to be the better back by most measures, the coaching staff and front office seem determined to show that their massive investment in Elliott was worth it. The Colts are a middle-of-the-league run defense, and in a game where Dallas could be up big, I expect them to give Zeke plenty of opportunities to post a big game.
If Elliott gets another 15 carries or so on Sunday, I think he'll go over 50 rushing yards. If he gets even more volume in a game where Dallas could be running for most of the second half, I think he smashes this line.
Leg 3: Dak Prescott U274.5 Pass Yards (-205)
The Colts have struggled this season, but one area where they've excelled is their pass defense. They allow 206 passing yards per game to opposing QBs, a top-five mark in the NFL.
Dak Prescott has played very well in recent weeks and has posted four straight games with over 250 passing yards. That said, I think he takes a step back statistically this week. The Cowboys prides themselves on having a balanced offense, and it's clear the running game is where they line up most favorably against the Colts on Sunday. There's also the possibility that they're up by enough late that they run disproportionately down the stretch.
I think Prescott plays a good game on Sunday, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it doesn't result in a huge fantasy day for the Cowboys QB. I'll take this under on the thesis of the Cowboys going run-first on Sunday night.
Parlay Odds: +400
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