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Colts vs. Jaguars: NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Colts vs. Jaguars.

NFL Betting Primer: Colts vs. Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC -4) vs. Indianapolis Colts

We have our first rematch of the 2023 season, with the Jaguars-Colts set to play for the second time since Week 1. That Week 1 contest was extremely profitable as we identified it as a great spot to bet the over with two defenses boasting suspect secondaries. The Jaguars secondary ranks 6th in passing yards allowed per game this season, and the Colts still have major issues in the backend. They currently rank 5th in passing yards allowed per game.

The Jaguars are coming off back-to-back victories in London, hoping to build on their momentum back on US soil. They obviously beat the Colts 31-21 in Week 1 (also covered), but the game was closer than the final score. Should have been 31-28 had rookie QB Anthony Richardson not been stuffed at the goal line at the tail end of the game.

Richardson won’t play in this game – slating Garnder Minshew to make his second start this year. Minshew is 3-0 straight up in games he has played significant snaps in so far in 2023. Although the two games he has played the Colts QB has orchestrated slightly more conservative game plans that have resulted in the Colts’ only unders this season (Weeks 3 + 5). Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 3-1 toward the under at home (including both games in London).

Two divisional opponents that know each other have me leaning heavily toward the under at 46.5 especially with Minshew drawing the start for Indianapolis.

Jacksonville should also limit the Colts’ ground game. Top-5 in fewest rushing yards per game and 8th in expected points added in run defense. Their pass rush is also solid, which should give Indianapolis some fits.

As much fun as it is to back Minshew as underdog against his old team, I think we are going to see the Jaguars hit their stride both offensively and defensively to cover the four-point spread at home. They have 400-plus yards of offense in two of their last 3 games.

On the props side, you need to bet the over on Christian Kirk. Zay Jones will probably miss this game, and we have seen Kirk’s production and involvement boom as a result in recent weeks. He’s gone over this number in 3 of his last 5 games (4/5 on closing line number) and the Colts’ defense has been gashed from the slot since blanking Kirk back in Week 1. 7th-most fantasy points per game allowed to slot WRs.

For the Colts, under on Zack Moss‘ rushing prop is too easy. First of all, he is going to split more carries with Jonathan Taylor. Ergo, carries and volume are not on his side. Second, the matchup is brutal. The Jaguars are top-5 in fewest rushing yards per game and 8th in expected points added in run defense.

Love the overs on both Colts WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Pittman has owned the Jags in his last two matchups posting 97-plus yards. Downs has gone over 42.5 yards in two of his last three games.

Downs has been more productive in the games that Minshew has played than with Anthony Richardson. The same goes for Pittman. Both guys should be viewed in higher regard with Minshew.

The targets have been extremely concentrated between the two WRs anyway. Pittman has a 29% Target share this season. Downs owned a 25% Target share in Week 5. This year, it’s 20%.

Jacksonville is allowing the 9th-most receiving yards and fourth-highest yards per catch this season to opposing WRs.

My Picks:

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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