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Commanders vs. Eagles Picks & Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football

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As we march further into November, the NFL season is heating up, and Week 11 brings us a crucial NFC East showdown under the Thursday night lights! I'm Andrew Erickson, here to guide you through every angle of this prime-time clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Commanders, with the division lead on the line.

The stakes are high in this classic NFC East rivalry as both teams battle to take control of the division. The Eagles have soared through the season with precision, but the Commanders are ready to play spoiler in front of the Philly Faithful. With cooler weather and playoff dreams intensifying, this game promises to bring fierce competition, strategic maneuvers, and plenty of drama in the heart of autumn.

I'll be diving into expert insights on the spread, total, and standout player props for this pivotal showdown. Whether you're crafting the perfect same-game parlay or looking for top prop bets, I've got you covered for this high-stakes NFC East face-off.

Get ready for a game that's sure to thrill fans and bettors alike. So, grab a warm drink, settle in, and prepare to place your bets on this Thursday night showdown for the division lead. This is just a taste of what's to come when the full BettingPros Week 11 Primer drops later this week!

NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sides

  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 11 of the Eagles’ last 14 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 16 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 11 games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 4-12-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 22 games - 12-10 ATS as home favorites
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last nine road games.
  • Philadelphia ATS on the road: 7-12-1.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 16 games. They are 7-2 ATS and straight up in their last nine games.
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last 12 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 13 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games against teams with winning records.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in four of their last five games.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in seven of their last eight games.

Totals:

  • The Eagles are 13-14 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 5-11 toward the over on the road.
  • Eight of the Eagles’ last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-3 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 1-2 toward the over at home this season (43.3 points per game).
  • Six of the Commanders' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Commanders' last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Commanders’ last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 6-3 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 15-3 toward the OVER.
  • The Eagles have a 26-point implied team total.
  • The Commanders are 3-2 toward the under at home, averaging over 42 points per game.

Overall:

We've got a rare treat this Thursday night, with an NFC East clash on deck.  The Eagles opened as three-point home favorites, but the line moved to Eagles -3.5.  I don't love the steam coming on Philly to win by more than a field goal, but the trends suggest backing Philly. Not because they are so elite at home (although they are better ATS at home than on the road) but because the Commanders have continued to come up short in these more high-profile matchups.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games against teams with a winning record.

They are 1-2 in those games this season, but they should be 0-3 ATS, and overall, have not been for the Hail Mary play against the Chicago Bears.

The Eagles defense has been playing lights out since bye week, allowing just 13 points per game.

Sure, it’s been against Deshaun Watson/Daniel Jones/Trevor Lawrence/Cooper Rush, so it's not overly impressive. But just 17 points against Joe Burrow? Now you have my attention (insert eye emojis).

The Commanders’ defense is another story. I believed in them playing effectively last week, and they let me down. Even though they limited Russell Wilson to under 200 passing yards and forced five punts, Pittsburgh wasn't impeded dramatically by Washington's defense. The Steelers could have scored another touchdown had Jaylen Warren not fumbled through the end zone.

I also feel confident that this Washington defense is much worse on the road than at home, and they might struggle to stop the run.

On the road this season, the Commanders rank 10th in points allowed and fifth in yards allowed per game. As such, eight of the Commanders’ last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Nine of the last 11 RBs that Washington has faced have gone over their rushing yards projection this season. They rank fifth in rushing yards allowed per game on defense.

And no team wants to run the ball more than the Eagles. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles offense has run the ball on a league-high 63.0% of their offensive plays, up from 45.3% before the bye (Next Gen Stats).  The Eagles have run the ball +12.5% more often given situational factors over the last five weeks (highest in NFL), including on 60.7% of their snaps when trailing. Only one other team has run the ball over half the time when trailing over the past five weeks (Lions, 52.1%).

According to Next Gen Stats, the Commanders have recorded an 88.5% tackle efficiency this season (6th-highest in the NFL) but have converted on just 58.4% of their first tackle opportunities (16th). The Commanders have allowed 6.4 extra yards per missed tackle this season, the 9th-most in the NFL.

Saquon Barkley ranks fifth in the NFL in yards after contact.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Eagles have also been more successful rushing with Dallas Goedert on the field this season, recording a full yard more before contact per carry with Goedert on the field than off the field, along with a +9.1% higher rushing success rate. DG is expected to play Thursday night despite an ankle injury.

I don't strongly lean toward picking sides, although if forced, I'd go toward Philadelphia winning the game based on better matchups on offense and defense. I think I might experiment with some live betting on Philly. I hope they get down to start and then get them at a better number, given how they traditionally start slow.

My favorite play is to take the under on the 48.5-point total because I don't think the Eagles’ defense is getting enough credit. I also expect Philadelphia to have a run-heavy game script, further pushing this game under the bloated total on a Thursday night (which typically shades toward the under).

My matchup-based analysis does sightly go against the trends of Eagles home overs/Commanders road overs, so just keep that in mind. I don't think this game totally duds out from a points perspective, but it comes up just short of 48.5. The Eagles are 1-2 toward the over at home this season, with only one home prime-time game going under the total (Falcons-Eagles in Week 2).

The best bet of this game might just be on Jalen Hurts' passing attempts at 28.5. Five straight unders since the Eagles have revved up the run game. One QB Washington has faced all season had gone over 30 pass attempts.

Props:

DeVonta Smith has scored a touchdown in seven of the Eagles’ last eight games at Lincoln Financial Field. DeVonta Smith has recorded 64+ receiving yards in six of the Eagles’ last seven games at Lincoln Financial Field.

Per Next Gen Stats, DeVonta Smith has run over half his routes from the slot this season (53.7%), doubling his slot usage from his first three seasons (2021-23: 24.3%).

Smith's slot route usage has coincided with A.J. Brown's availability, where in Weeks 2-4, Smith ran 38.5% of his routes from aligned in the slot. With Brown back on the field (Weeks 1 & 5-10), that mark jumped to 60.3%. Smith has caught 13 of his 18 targets out of the slot for 187 yards and three touchdowns this season. The Commanders have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season.

A.J. Brown has 82.5 receiving yards or more in all five of his healthy games played this season.

The Commanders have allowed the 7th-fewest catches to TEs this season. Goedert has only gone over 3.5 catches in three of six games this season. Only one game came with both Smith/Brown active in the lineup.

Noah Brown is the Commanders’ No.2 WR, but he has been very boom-or-bust. Only twice has he gone over 3.5 catches this season. The Eagles defense ranks 4th in the fewest yards to opposing No. 2 WRs this season and No. 1 in DVOA.

Brian Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 10 road appearances. He is set to play on Thursday night. The Commanders lead the NFL in rushing TD %, while the Eagles rank 10th in rushing TD % on defense. B-Rob is Washington’s red-zone back, and we are getting a discount on his TD prop because he has missed the last two weeks. I like him as a sneaky 1st TD bet, given how slow the Eagles start compared to how the Commanders can start fast.

Per Next Gen Stats, Quinyon Mitchell has been targeted on 13.9% of snaps since the Eagles Week 5 bye, allowing 0.6 yards per coverage snap over that span.

Prior to the bye, Mitchell was targeted on 19.4% of snaps and allowed 1.4 yards per coverage snap. The rookie cornerback has not allowed more than 25 yards as the nearest defender in any of his past five games. Terry McLaurin has aligned as a left outside receiver on a league-high 75.8% of his offensive snaps this season, doing so as an isolated receiver on 97 of those snaps (26.5%, Next Gen Stats).

Mitchell has aligned as the right outside cornerback on 97.8% of his defensive snaps this season and is projected to match up against McLaurin. According to Next Gen Stats, McLaurin has been pressed on 31.5% of his routes this season, recording a league-high +4.1 receptions over expected against press. When pressed, McLaurin has run a go route on 30 of his 79 routes (38.0%). Mitchell has pressed more often since the Week 5 bye, pressing on 34.0% of snaps, compared to 2.1% of snaps prior to the Eagles bye.

Eagles CB Cooper DeJean has recorded the highest coverage success rate among slot cornerbacks since his return in Week 6 (73.9%, min 10 targets). DeJean has allowed -12.6 target EPA over that period, the 2nd-fewest among slot cornerbacks.

The Eagles have recorded a league-low 26.8% success rate on opening drives this season, the lowest rate by an offense in any season since 2019.

The Eagles have recorded a 46.0% success rate after their opening drive, the 8th-highest in the NFL.

My Picks:

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