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Commanders vs. Falcons: NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Commanders vs. Falcons.

NFL Betting Primer: Commanders vs. Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (ATL -2.5) vs. Washington Commanders

We zigged while others zagged last week right to the bank. Everybody was ready to write off Desmond Ridder after an abysmal performance in London. But he responded in a big way at home in Week 5, throwing for a career-high 329 yards! He threw one touchdown pass and didn’t record any interceptions.

Ridder has still yet to lose a game at home in his professional and college career, so I’ll continue to back the Falcons when they are at home in the dome.

That’s been evident this year, with the Dirty Birds 3-0 averaging 23.3 points per game in Atlanta versus their 0-2 record on the road, where they have averaged 6.5 points per game.

If Ridder isn’t pressured, he can get the Falcons offense moving. Now the Commanders actually do have a better pass rush than Houston – 2nd best in the league in pressure rate (27%) – but it has not slowed down any offenses considering they have allowed 33-plus points scored in four straight games.

Atlanta’s offense should be efficient enough to win a close game, which has been the Falcons’ calling card this season. Unlike the Vikings (pour many out), the Falcons have been on the positive side of regression in one-score games. Last year, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 one-possession games.

This year? 2-0 in one-possession games including last week’s win. Regression to the mean at its finest.

I also think their defense can make a play or two to get the edge over the Commanders’ offense.

The Falcons’ defense is not the same rollover unit it has been for some many years. They rank first in expected points added on run defense. Atlanta gives up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to the RB position. They have allowed the fewest receiving yards to RBs.

Atlanta has also allowed the second-fewest yards after catch; they rank 11th in pressure rate and second in quarterback knockdowns.

And unlike the Commanders’ last two opponents, Atlanta actually has a secondary that can complement its pass rush up front, sixth in lowest yards per attempt allowed and in 7th fewest passing yards allowed per game.

A.J. Terrell is playing like a shut-down cornerback. Jeff Okudah has been playing up to his 1st-round draft capital the last three weeks. Safety Jessie Bates has been earning his contract as PFF’s second-highest-graded safety.

The closest defense to the Falcons that Washington has played this season is the Bills. And Buffalo completely overwhelmed Washington and their sack machine QB, Sam Howell.

The Commanders’ offense has been productive under Howell – scoring at least 20 points in all their games outside the loss to Buffalo. Still, the matchup suggests this might be a “down” game for the Commanders’ offense.

And as we say play out last week, turnovers almost always dictate whether or not the Commanders cover. When they have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 2 games they have covered, 0 turnovers on offense.

Considering Atlanta only has generated one turnover on defense since Week 1 – despite playing great statistically across the board – I’d bet they are overdue for some positive turnover regression.

They rank dead last in sack percentage, despite consistently generating pressure on opposing QBs. Could see a massive game from them versus the sack king himself. Howell is on pace to break the all-time sack record…

Back the Falcons as 2.5-point favorites at home.

From a totals perspective, I am likely looking toward the under. When Atlanta dictates the pace of play, they run the football. Also 4-1 toward the under this season. And I’ve alluded to his being a tough spot for the Commanders’ offense against one of the better defenses they have faced.

When these teams met last season, it was a 19-13 barnburner (under) in favor of the Commanders.

For props, you want to target the middle of the Falcons defense. Their biggest weakness is their slot CB, Dee Alford, which could lead to a highly involved day for Curtis Samuel.

Also, Commanders tight end Logan Thomas is set up extremely nicely in this matchup.

LT continues to be super involved in the passing game, leading with a team-high 11 targets (23%) for 9 catches, 77 yards and 1 TD in Week 5. Ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks. Atlanta is allowing the second-most fantasy points to TEs this season.

The Falcons’ defense is also horrible versus slot WRs…so Curtis Samuel’s 3.5 receptions prop at plus money is music to my ears. 6-plus catches in back-to-back games and no fewer than 3 receptions in any game this season.

Terry McLaurin, I like the under. He’s gone over 56.5 receiving yards just one time this season. Falcons are allowing the 4th-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs this season.

I also like the Drake London over 45 receiving yards. He has 6-plus targets in four straight games and has gone over this number in five of his last 6 home games. The Commanders have allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs this season and at least 100 yards to a single WR in their last four games.

My Picks:

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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