Copa America 2024 Odds & Picks: Friday (Venezuela vs. Canada)

We're onto the knockout round of Copa America. A trip to the semi-finals is up for grabs on Friday as Venezuela squares off against Canada. Venezuela won Group B courtesy of a perfect 3-0-0 record (+5 GD), while Canada posted a 1-1-1 mark (-1 GD), which was good enough for the runner-up spot in Group A. 

Below I'll dive into Friday's match from a sports betting perspective and provide my favorite bet for the contest. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, USA. 

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Friday’s Best Copa America Bets: Venezuela vs. Canada

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Venezuela (+155) vs. Canada (+210), DRAW (+200) | O/U 2.5 (+145/-185)

The oddsmakers aren't expecting a ton of scoring in Friday night's match, pricing the under 2.5 goals at -185. I don't anticipate much offensive success either, so I'll play the alternate under 2.0 goals at -105

We typically see defenses elevate their game when the stakes are the highest. I expect that to be the case in this do-or-die match. Venezuela has been in great defensive form, riding a two-match clean-sheet streak. They conceded just once during the group stage, allowing a goal in a 2-1 victory over Ecuador. 

As for Canada, they struggled offensively during their time in Group A. Jesse Marsch's bunch managed just one goal, which came in a 1-0 victory against Peru. They were shut out by both Argentina (2-0) and Chile (0-0). Defensively, Canada looked sharp, allowing only two goals to the top-ranked Argentinians. They're also riding a streak of two straight games with clean sheets. Their expected goals against (xGA) was a combined 1.3 over their two final matches, which is pretty impressive. 

Ultimately, neither of these teams has world-class offensive stars, so I give the upper hand to the defenses. Venezuela has seen two or fewer goals in six of its last nine competitive matches, while Canada has four consecutive competitive matches with two or fewer goals. Let's play the under. 

Bet: Under 2.0 (-105)

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