Cotton Bowl: College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (USC vs. Tulane)
Here are Thor Nystrom’s best bets for the College Football Bowl Game: Cotton Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through January 1): 24-16-1 ATS (60.0%)
2022 combined: 106-82-4 ATS (56.4%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Cotton Bowl: College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (USC vs. Tulane)
Monday, January 2 | 12:00 PM
USC (-2) vs. Tulane | Total: 63.5
ATL: USC -2.1 | ATT: 70.5
Tulane
QB Justin Ibieta (Injury)
RB Cameron Carroll (Injury)
WR Dea Dea McDougle (Injury)
QB Ibieta and RB Carroll, both backups, are out for the season with shoulder and leg injuries, respectively. WR McDougle, a Maryland transfer, left the team last month, per HC Willie Fritz.
USC
QB Caleb Williams (Injury)
RB Travis Dye (Injury)
WR Michael Jackson III (Injury)
WR Jordan Addison (Injury)
C Brett Neilon (Injury)
OG Andrew Vorhees (Injury)
DT Kobe Pepe (Transfer portal)
EDGE Romello Height (Injury)
LB Ralen Goforth (Transfer portal)
LB Julien Simon (Transfer portal)
There were rumors early-on that USC QB Caleb Williams could sit with a hamstring injury. Williams has been emphatic with the media that he will play in the game if he’s physically able. I heard the same thing – that Williams will play if he’s healthy – shortly after this matchup was announced. Officially, Williams is considered probable.
RB Dye is out for the year with a knee injury suffered in November. Dye averaged 6.1 YPC over the first 10 games.
WR Addison, a Round 1 possibility in the spring, will miss the bowl game with his ankle injury, per HC Lincoln Riley. Addison, the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner, is expected to declare for the 2023 draft – and to be 100-percent healthy for the NFL Combine if so. Addison posted a 59-875-8 line in 11 games this season.
Starting OC Neillon and OG Vorhees both won’t play due to injury, per HC Riley. Both were fabulous in 2022, and both are of great interest to NFL scouts. Riley said Vorhees is rehabbing with an eye towards draft prep.
LB Goforth posted 43 tackles as part of the LB rotation, but he’s skipped town to join rival Washington. WR Jackson III is questionable with an undisclosed injury. EDGE Height was lost for the season in September with a shoulder issue. DT Pepe and LB Simon were rarely-used backups.
DL Tuli Tuipulotu, hasn’t made an announcement about whether if he will return to USC or declare for the NFL Draft, has said that he will play in this game. Tuipulotu led the nation with 12.5 sacks and was a consensus All-American.
Handicap
Tulane improved from 2-10 last season to 11-2 conference champion. USC also went 11-2, one year after going 4-8.
Tulane arrives at full-strength. The Green Wave are extremely balanced, with the No. 43 SP+ offense, No. 30 SP+ defense, and No. 65 SP+ special teams. The offense can both throw and run, while being both efficient (No. 47 success rate) and explosive (No. 19 isoPPP).
Tulane’s defense is similarly well-rounded from the tree-tops, ranking No. 30 in efficiency and No. 1 in explosive play rate allowed. Tulane has a very strong pass defense.
USC, by contrast, is a far more top-heavy team. The Trojans boast the No. 2 SP+ offense, but rank just No. 71 in defense and a ghastly No. 118 in special teams. USC’s defense allowed a dreadful 6.3 YPP through the first 13 games.
USC is not going to be able to slow Tulane RB Tyjae Spears on the ground. Spears, playing in his last collegiate game, has topped 120 rushing yards in seven-straight games. The Trojans haven’t stopped the run all year, ranking No. 120 in success rate and No. 116 in explosion. Take all Spears’ overs in the prop market.
The short-and-intermediate passing game should be open for Tulane QB Michael Pratt. The Trojans have done a better job taking away the deep-area of the field than almost anything else defensively.
The other thing USC does well is take away the ball, so Tulane simply must take care of it. USC ranks No. 6 in turnovers forced, and No. 1 in turnover margin. Tulane did rank top-30 in turnovers lost. All in all, the Mean Green offense matches up well.
On the other side, assuming USC QB Caleb Williams plays – he says he will – will he have any physical limitations moving around after gimping-through the second half a month-ago in the Pac-12 title game against Utah?
Williams at 100-percent can take over games and flip outcomes by himself. He threw for 4,075 yards with a 37/4 TD/INT rate and rushed for 372 yards and 10 TD through the first 13 games.
Williams will be playing a USC offensive line compromised by losses of OC Neillon and OG Vorhees, who are both off to the NFL. USC’s line was susceptible to giving up pressures and sacks in the fall. One fortunate thing, in this matchup, is Tulane doesn’t generate much heat – ranking No. 117 in sack rate, No. 127 in pressure rate, and No. 79 in blitz rate.
Tulane LB Dorian Williams will be crucial to the Mean Green’s efforts to address USC QB Caleb Williams on extended plays and muck-up throwing lanes. LB Williams ranks top-20 in the nation with 115 tackles and has chipped in 8.5 TFL, five sacks, and seven pass breakups.
Tulane has a very strong secondary. The Mean Green’s pass defense ranks No. 37 in success rate and No. 16 in explosion. USC will be without WR Addison.
USC has managed to run the ball well without RB Dye. Running lanes will be open. The one area where you can consistently nick the Mean Green: On the ground, where Tulane ranks a mere No. 72 in run defense success rate. But how will USC’s new-look offensive line fare in this area?
The margins are very close, here. Our number is basically smack-dab on Vegas’. We bet the Trojans a few weeks ago after bowl openings when the Trojans were a 1.5-point underdog. We don’t see much value on the side with where this line has moved.
Instead, we’re going to go over. Our system believes there’s value on the over, and our handicap certainly confirms that both offenses project to have success.
The pick: Over 63.5
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