Creighton vs. Princeton: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks & Predictions (Friday)
The bottom half of the South Region features the Sweet 16 matchup everyone saw coming: Creighton against Princeton!
The Tigers are the last Cinderella standing after knocking off both Arizona and Missouri in shocking fashion. The 15th seed held the Wildcats to a season-low 55 points, then dominated the Tigers in a 15-point game that never felt close. Creighton’s run to Louisville has been similarly impressive, as the Bluejays took down both North Carolina State and Baylor.
Can Princeton follow up St. Peter’s and become the second 15 seed in a row to make the Elite Eight? Or does Creighton put an end to this incredible run? Let’s break down this Sweet 16 showdown.
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(6) Creighton Bluejays (-9.5) vs. (15) Princeton Tigers, Total 140.5
Can Princeton keep it up defensively?
Holding two offensive juggernauts like Arizona and Missouri to 118 combined points is insanely impressive, but it’s also not fluky. The Tigers rank 58th in effective field goal defense and held Missouri and Arizona to a combined 9-for-38 from 3-point range.
In both wins, Princeton also did two things really well: they kept their opponents off the foul line and limited second chances. Interestingly, Creighton ranks 272nd in offensive rebounding and 270th in free throw rate offensively, which plays right into Princeton’s hands.
Princeton’s 3-point defense will also be enormous against the Bluejays, who rank 65th in 3-point rate and hit 35.8% of their shots from deep. The Tigers are plenty capable of running opponents off the 3-point line, ranking 42nd in 3-point rate.
Defensively, Princeton’s biggest concern will be 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner. He serves as a major mismatch for the Tigers, who don’t play anyone taller than 6-foot-9. It will be interesting to see whether coach Mitch Henderson opts to double team Kalkbrenner down low and take the risk of exposing his defense to open perimeter shots. While the offense runs through Kalkbrenner, Trey Alexander, Ryan Nembhard and Baylor Scheierman each shoot better than 35% from deep.
Princeton faced a similar height disadvantage in the first round against Arizona. In that game, 6-foot-11 Azuolas Tubelis and 7-foot center Oumar Ballo combined for 35 of Arizona’s 55 points and shot 50% from the floor. The difference was Arizona’s erratic guards, who shot 2-for-14 from 3-point range. Princeton deserves credit for forcing missed shots, but can they bank on another off shooting day out of Creighton?
How does Princeton find offense?
Princeton’s offense is fascinating. The Tigers play through senior Tosan Evbuomwan, who might be good enough to play professionally. However, the Tigers have advanced to the Sweet 16 despite getting just 24 points from their star player in this tournament.
Princeton’s also managed to advance despite shooting just 16-of-58 from beyond the arc. The Tigers offense is predicated on taking threes, as they rank 78th in 3-point rate. However, Princeton doesn’t make a ton of them, ranking 203rd in 3-point shooting. Thanks to Evbuomwan’s presence, the Tigers have a top-50 interior offense.
The problem is Creighton’s defensive strengths make for a tough matchup. The Bluejays rank 25th in 2-point defense and are ninth in 3-point rate allowed. They clean up the glass and hardly ever foul, which limits Princeton’s scoring opportunities even further.
It will be interesting to see who coach Greg McDermott puts on Evbuomwan. My guess is sophomore Arthur Kaluma will get the responsibility, but we could see McDermott mix and match his defensive tactics against Princeton’s top player.
Prediction and best bet
This is a really difficult matchup for the Tigers on the offensive end, as the Bluejays can take away Princeton’s strengths. Anyone is susceptible to an off night, but I trust Creighton’s guards far more than I did Arizona’s. Kalkbrenner should be able to get whatever he wants on the interior, and if Princeton doubles him I’d expect McDermott to have his big man prepared to be more of a distributor Friday night.
Princeton’s run has been incredible, but this feels like the end of the road.
The pick: Creighton -9.5 (-110)
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