Creighton vs. San Diego State: 2023 NCAA Tournament South Region Elite Eight Preview

Let’s take a look at our top picks and predictions for Sunday’s Elite 8 showdown: Creighton vs. San Diego State.

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Creighton Bluejays vs. San Diego State Aztecs Game Info

Creighton Bluejays (24-12, 14-6 Big East) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (30-6, 15-3 Mountain West)

• Date: Sunday, Mar. 26, 2023
• Start Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• Location: KFC Yum! Center - Louisville, KY
• Coverage: CBS
• Last Meeting: March 17, 2022 - Creighton defeated San Diego State 72-69 in Fort Worth.

Creighton Bluejays vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

• Moneyline: CREI: (-128) | SDST: (+106)
• Point Spread: CREI: -1.5 (-115) | SDST: -1.5 (-105)
• Total: 133.5 - Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Betting Trends

• Creighton 2022-23 Betting Trends: 19-17 ATS; 17-18-1 to the Over
• San Diego State 2022-23 Betting Trends: 18-15-2 ATS; 14-21 to the Over
• Creighton is 5-0 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games.
• Creighton is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games.
• The Over is 4-1 in Creighton’s last five NCAA Tournament games.
• San Diego State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.
• San Diego State is 7-3 ATS in its last ten NCAA Tournament games.
• The Under is 14-3 in San Diego State’s last 17 games following a SU win.

Overview

This matchup between the No. 5 seed San Diego State Aztecs and the No. 6 seed Creighton Bluejays is the first 5-6 matchup in 13 years when Michigan State beat Tennessee in 2010. It is also the second straight year these two teams have met in the NCAA Tournament, as No. 9 seed Creighton beat No. 8 seed San Diego State in an overtime thriller in the opening round last year. San Diego State is playing in its first-ever Elite Eight, and both teams are looking for their first Final Four berths in school history.

Creighton Bluejays Betting Preview

Creighton has come a long way since a 9-8 start through 17 games, which also included a six-game losing streak from November 23 to December 16. Before the Bluejays’ 82-60 loss to Xavier in the Big East semifinals (their worst loss of the season), they had lost six of their 11 games by five or fewer points. Creighton and Princeton’s 90 combined first-half points in the Sweet 16 were the most combined points in the first half in this year’s Men’s NCAA Tournament. The Bluejays are 17-14 ATS as favorites this season and have covered nine of their 14 non-conference games. 

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview

San Diego State has won 13 of 14 games entering this matchup, and its seven-game winning streak is the fourth-longest active winning streak in the country. The Aztecs played three NCAA Tournament teams in the non-conference portion of their schedule, losing by 17 to Arizona, four in overtime against Arkansas, and seven against Saint Mary’s. Head coach Brian Dutcher is 149-46 (.764) in his sixth season as Aztecs head coach.

Creighton Bluejays vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Pick and Prediction

Creighton was a preseason top-ten team and is getting a lot of love in this matchup, as it is playing to that potential. However, San Diego State’s familiarity with the Bluejays should come in handy on Sunday, and that could be the difference.

In last year’s Round of 64 matchup, the Aztecs pressured the Bluejays into 20 turnovers and held them to 2-of-14 shooting from beyond the arc. Creighton point guard Ryan Nembhard did not play in that game, but we also expect a better performance from Aztecs forward Nathan Mensah, who was scoreless and fouled out after playing 13 minutes.

San Diego State imposed its will on an Alabama team that had won 14 games by at least 20 points this season. Most impressive was the way it competed on the backboards. Alabama ranks first in D-I with 44.6 rebounds per game and seventh in rebounding differential (+7.2). However, the Aztecs held tough on the glass against the Crimson Tide, securing 17 offensive rebounds and 48 rebounds in total.

San Diego State is more experienced than Creighton (21st compared to 158th in D-I experience) and has a much deeper bench (31st in bench minutes compared to the BlueJays, who rank 351st). We expect Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher to use that to his advantage with just one day off between games, and San Diego State has covered both of its games following a one-day layoff. As a result, we are passing on the +1.5 points on the spread and opting for more value with the Aztecs as moneyline underdogs.

Pick: San Diego State ML (+110 at Caesars)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.