Cure Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets (Troy vs. UTSA)
Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for Cure Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the weekend.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.â€
Cure Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets
Cure Bowl | Orlando, FL
Friday, December 16 | 2:00 PM
Troy (-1.5) vs. UTSA | Total: 55.5
ATL: Troy -0.8 | ATT: 48.5
Troy
WR Jabre Barber (Injury)
WR Marcus Rogers (Injury)
WRs Barber and Rogers both missed the Sun Belt Championship. Barber has been out since October but remains No. 4 on the team in receptions. The bowl statuses for each are unclear.
UTSA
RB Brenden Brady (Injury)
WR De’Corian Clark (Injury)
RB Brady missed the CUSA title game with an arm injury suffered in the finale against UTEP. Part of the RB rotation, Brady has rushed for 699 yards this season. RB Kevorian Barnes shredded North Texas for 175 yards and a TD over 28 carries with the increased usage. WR Clark was knocked out for the year in October.
Handicap
Both teams are 11-2 conference champions that come in on heaters – each started 1-2 before ripping off 10-straight wins. They have nearly identical strengths of schedule and resume rankings. It’s no surprise this line is essentially a pick ‘em.
Despite qualitative similarities and spread-the-field predilections on offense, these teams are constructed in opposite ways. UTSA has an awesome offense (No. 15 SP+) and a bad defense (No. 92). Troy has a bad offense (No. 101) but an awesome defense (No. 10).
To beat UTSA, you need to have a good secondary, and you need to be able to tackle in space. If you aren’t equipped to do both, dual-threat UTSA QB Frank Harris will get the ball into the open field and abuse you. Against a poor strength of schedule, UTSA averaged 38.7 PPG.
Fortunately for Troy, it checks both boxes. Troy’s secondary is led by CB Reddy Steward, one of the nation’s best cover men. Steward ranks No. 5 out of 947 qualifying CBs in PFF grade. Targeted 80 times this season, Steward allowed a mere 4.2 yards per target while intercepting three passes, breaking up seven more, and allowing only one touchdown.
Steward should put the clamps on star UTSA WR1 Zakhari Franklin. That’ll make Harris’ life a lot more difficult. Especially with UTSA WR Clark out for the year, which turned UTSA’s three-headed monster at receiver into a two-man show.
Troy’s defense ranks No. 9 in tackling success rate. It is led by undersized banshee LB Carlton Martial, who has already broken the FBS’ all-time record for tackles. Martial and crew will ensure UTSA’s run game and Harris’ scrambles don’t turn into brush fires with the field spread.
Flipping the field, Troy’s offense is inefficient (No. 78 success rate), but super-explosive (SP+ No. 4 marginal explosiveness). I think UTSA’s strong run defense can address a surging Troy run game – RB Kimani Vidal averaged 137.4 YPG rushing over the last five games.
But the Roadrunners’ tackling issues (No. 123 tackle success rate) and back-end issues concern in a matchup like this. These are the reasons UTSA’s defense ranked No. 122 in explosiveness, an issue likely to come to the fore against Troy.
The pick: Troy -1.5
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