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Daytona 500: NASCAR Best Odds, Bets & Picks (2023)

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A mix of nostalgia and the smell of motor oil will fill the Florida air Sunday afternoon as the 2023 Daytona 500 gets underway at 2:30 pm. ET on Fox.

This weekend begins the 75th chapter of NASCAR professional stock car racing - a sport that’s always pushed the boundaries. There’s no better example of this than The Great American Race. Drivers run their cars wide open, risking it all for a shot to win NASCAR’s crown jewel. It’s a circuit that created heroes of the sport and also took some from us way too soon.

Although I certainly hope all race fans can soak in the moment, we should also be careful not to get swept away, making ill-advised wagers in celebration of the sport’s return. This is a white-knuckle track, and anything can happen. Just flash back to the Fall’s Coke Zero 400 here. A wet corner took out a majority of the heavy favorites, leaving us with the most-unlikeliest cars competing for the win. Among them were Cody Ware and B.J. Mcleod, who both finished well within the top 10. Their odds to repeat that? +1500 apiece.

So, let’s appreciate the gravity of this race and cash some tickets while also remembering not to deplete our bankroll. We have a long season ahead.

2023 Daytona 500: NASCAR Best Odds, Bets & Picks

All bet recommendations are for 1u.

Top 5: Bubba Wallace (+200 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Daytona has become one of Bubba Wallace’s signature tracks as he enters his sixth full-time season in the Cup Series. He has the best average finish (12.4) here by a fair margin among active drivers with at least 10 career stats. He also has just two DNFs here - an impressive feat for such a volatile track.

Wallace just has a feel for this tri-oval, evident in his eye-catching 36.3% top-5 finish rate. He finished second in last year’s 500 and then 11th in the fall, leading laps in both races. Thursday night’s Bluegreen Vacation Duels was more of the same as Wallace had a late push to launch his Toyota technical alliance teammate Christopher Bell into second place. I’m riding with Wallace’s consistency in the top-5 market while these generous odds remain available.

Top 10: Jimmie Johnson (+140 via Caesars Sportsbook)

I’m wasting no-time betting on the seven-time champion in his return to the sport after retiring in November 2020. Before singing his initial swan song, Johnson finished in the top 10 at Daytona in five out of his last eight races. One of those times that he didn’t crack the top 10, he finished 11th.

Additionally, Johnson’s career average finish of 18.3 at Daytona is in the same ball-park as race favorite Joey Logano’s 18.0 (+1000). It’s even better than the 19.0 average finish of Kyle Busch, who’s tied for the third shortest odds to win.

Some gamblers will be scared off of Johnson’s lack of experience in NASCAR’s Next-Gen car, introduced last year. But he was testing the car recently in Phoenix and looked competitive in qualifying and his Duel. I’m trusting the veteran to be patient and hang in the back, avoiding “the big one” and then emerging late.

Matchup: Chase Elliott (+100) vs. Kyle Larson (-120) via DraftKings Sportsbook

Look, I get that Chase Elliott hasn’t had the best Speedweeks and that Kyle Larson is starting on the front row. But to find Elliott at plus-money in this matchup was surprising. For one of the sport’s elites, Larson performs comically poorly at its most well-known track. He’s never had a top-5 finish here in his 17 starts. His average finish here of 22.6 is also worse than the aforementioned Ware and McLeod.

Additionally, the No. 9 just beat Larson in their Duel, finishing third to Larson’s sixth. Before the controversy-riddled fall race, here Elliott had a string of four straight top-10 finishes, including two second-place finishes.

Anything can happen at Daytona. Yet that anything usually includes Larson getting caught up in trouble rather early. I’ll gladly back NASCAR’s most popular driver against him at the favorable price tag.

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Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis with a hint of feel-good lifestyle advice from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

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