Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds & Game Pick (2021)

One of several divisional matchups around the NFL in Week 16 is a key AFC West battle between the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. There is certainly no love lost between these longtime rivals. Adding to the stakes in what will already be a contentious affair is that both teams are desperate for a win to stay alive in the AFC playoff race. The NFL betting odds are predicting a very close game. Along with a low point total, current odds have this Broncos vs. Raiders showdown listed as a close game.

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Details

Opening Lines: Pick'em; O/U 41.5
Current Lines: Denver -1; O/U 41
Location: Allegiant Stadium - Paradise, NV
Start Time: 4:25 p.m. EDT
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: October 17, 2021 - The Raiders defeated the Broncos 34-24 in Denver.

Overview

The Broncos have to feel like they let a win slip away last week. Denver ultimately came up short in a low-scoring slugfest against the Cincinnati Bengals despite a superb effort by the defense. A fumble in the red zone by Drew Lock on a potential game-winning drive in the fourth quarter proved to be extremely costly. Of course, the former Missouri signal-caller was only in the game due to a scary-looking head injury suffered by starting QB Teddy Bridgewater. Lock is now in line to start Sunday's key NFL betting divisional matchup as Bridgewater remains in concussion protocols. While he does possess the bigger arm, one has to believe that the Broncos will continue to lean on the RB tandem of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.

Following a surprising loss to the Raiders back in the first matchup between the teams in October, the Broncos' defense has flipped a switch. Perhaps trading away veteran linebacker Von Miller was a good thing. Since allowing 34 points in that October 17th defeat, Vic Fangio's defense has held six of eight opponents to 17 points or less. Safety Justin Simmons is quietly rising the ranks as one of the best defensive players in the NFL today. Of course, a loaded secondary around him certainly helps as well. Denver figures to have a massive advantage on that side of the ball on Sunday. The major concern is whether or not Lock and the offense can hold up their end of the bargain.

It took a late field goal by Daniel Carlson just for the Raiders to get past the virus-protocol-depleted Cleveland Browns last week. Although the win kept Las Vegas in the hunt for an AFC Wild Card berth, it did come at a cost. An already thin defensive secondary suffered two more massive blows in the aftermath of Monday's game as safety Johnathan Abram and corner Trayvon Mullen were both placed on season-ending IR. Generating a pass rush and gearing up to stop Denver's rushing attack will be vital to the Raiders' chances in this Week 16 NFL betting contest. 

While the Broncos' defense has improved dramatically since the first head-to-head meeting between these teams, the Raiders' offense has primarily trended in the opposite direction. While Las Vegas has topped the 30-point threshold twice since scoring 34 in Denver, they have failed to muster 20 points in each of their six other games. The 16 points scored in last week's win marked the Raiders' highest offensive output in the previous three games. Injuries have depleted Derek Carr's arsenal as the season has progressed. Most notably, star tight end Darren Waller has missed three straight games with a knee injury. The fact that he has yet to practice this week is a bad sign ahead of Sunday's NFL betting matchup. The Raiders will lean heavily on running back Josh Jacobs in both phases of the game regardless of Waller's availability.

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Trends

• The total has gone under in seven of the Broncos' last eight games.
• Raiders are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
• Broncos are 8-1-1 ATS in their last ten games against opponents who had a turnover differential of -2 or worse in their previous game.
• Raiders are 0-10 ATS in their last ten games following an outright win of three points or less.
• Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five head-to-head matchups against the Broncos at home.

Bottom Line

There is an argument to be made that Drew Lock is not a downgrade at all from Teddy Bridgewater. In fact, his big-play ability and willingness to take risks might benefit the Broncos' offense. Regardless, the Denver defense will be the best unit on the field by far in this matchup. After getting embarrassed by the Raiders in the first meeting between these teams, look for the Broncos to make a statement. 

While this game opened at pick'em, the Raiders were small favorites for a time earlier in the week. Of course, it has since been bet back down, and the Broncos remain the preferred play here. In all honesty, bettors should have no qualms betting Denver so long as the spread stays under a full three points in their favor. The potential for a plus-money return on the moneyline is also worth searching for. 

Picks: Broncos ML (-110) and/or ATS

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.