Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds and Game Pick (2021)

The sports world has been crazy this last week. Games are getting rescheduled or postponed, and multiple star players are sitting out because of COVID-19. That will be a factor that bettors must think about going into Week 16 of the NFL. Bettors need to make sure that they are considering player status before placing any bets because of all the recent roster changes. Try to be cautious, but take advantage of situations that can benefit from NFL players sitting out. There is plenty of betting value that bettors can take advantage of going into the final weeks of the NFL regular season. Let’s take a look at the value of this Week 16 matchup. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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Details

• Opening Lines: Atlanta Falcons -7.5, Total 49
• Current Lines: Atlanta Falcons -6.5, Total 42.5
• Last Game: October 25, 2020, Detroit 23-22
• Winning Streak: Detroit Lions (1)

Overview

The Atlanta Falcons are a rollercoaster ride this year. They are sitting at 6-8, but at times they have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. The truth is that statistically, the Falcons have been one of the worst defensive teams. They are the second-worst defensive team in the NFL after the New York Jets.  The defense allows 27.4 points per game and 377 total yards. Offensively, the Falcons have been streaky at best. They failed to score a touchdown three times this season. The only good news is that those games all came against the top defensive teams in the league. When playing the bottom half of NFL defenses, the Falcons average 30 points per game. That means the Falcons can score points against the Lions. 

The Lions are in the bottom half of defenses in the NFL. They are the #26 defense in the league and allow an average of 26.1 points per game. In five games, the opponent has scored over 34 points. The Falcons have proven they can score against bad defenses, and the Lions qualify. The offense might concern some this week.

Currently, Jared Goff is out due to COVID-19. There is still a chance Goff plays in this game if he tests negative before Sunday, but it appears he’s highly unlikely to suit up. That is where the betting value starts. Tim Boyle is a decent backup, and if he has to play, the Lions will still be able to score. Make sure to keep an eye on Goff's status.

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Bottom Line

These teams have gone over 42 points in most of their games. The defenses allow a lot of scoring. Offensively, both teams have proven they can score points against the bottom half of NFL defenses. Both of these teams are in that bottom half. In addition to that, these two teams have gone over 42 points every time they have played since 2012. Statistically, this game has a high probability of going over the total points. The line movement has changed by a touchdown, which adds additional value to betting on the over. When the line moves this much, betting value is created by betting against the line movement. This game is a great time to play the betting value of that line moving. 

Pick:  Total Over 42.5 (-110)

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Cameron Lynch is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Cameron, check out his archive and follow him @captron26.