Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos Odds & Game Pick (2021)

by Ryan Newman |
Dec 10, 2021

The Detroit Lions finally got off the schneid last week, with a roller coaster win over the Vikings. Yet still holding the worst record in the NFL, Football Outsiders projects the Lions have a 49.4% chance to get the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. As for Denver, their playoff hopes are still alive, but took a significant hit last week (dropping 11% points) and sit at 18%.

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Ryan's Season Totals

Assigned Games: 16-16-1

Best Bets: 23-14, Up 1098%

Details

Opening Line: Denver -10
Current Line: Denver -8
Over/Under: 42

Location: Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO

Start Time: 4:05 PM EST, SUN 12/12
Last Meeting: Broncos, 27, Lions 17 at Denver in 2019

Overview

The 2021 Broncos have had a bit of an up-and-down vibe to the season, albeit a predictive one. With the addition of Teddy Bridgewater and a strong start to the year, fans had hope. That early-season performance was propped up by weak opponents, making their eventual backslide appear more like a "back to earthâ€ situation for a middle-of-the-road team. Then came upsets over two strong teams in the Cowboys and Chargers. Hence, its tough to truly pinpoint where this team is, sitting at a very mediocre 18th by DVOA.

The Lions did finally win a game last week, but they remain a dumpster fire. Any romanticizing of "the underdogs that fight hard for their coach" has worn off, and they are simply a team that has no incentive to win, and every incentive to continue to lose.

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Trends

Broncos are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six Broncos games.
The UNDER is 8-2 in the Lions last 10 games

Bottom Line

Teams that win their first game this late in the season with a first time coach have gone 0-4 (1-3 ATS) the following week. In other words, you can expect a bit of a dip in motivation the week after. Because of this, we have to back the Broncos (but not at this price).

Prediction: Broncos 20, Lions 12

The Picks: Lions +10, UNDER 42

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