Dolphins vs. Bills: 2023 NFL AFC Wild Card Weekend Picks & Predictions (Sunday)
In preparation for their first playoff game since 2016, the No. 7 seed Miami Dolphins will start seventh-round draft selection Skylar Thompson at quarterback when they take on the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills on Sunday in Orchard Park, N.Y.
Tua Tagovailoa, who has been placed in concussion protocol multiple times this season, is still out. If there are no setbacks, Teddy Bridgewater might make a comeback this week from a dislocated pinkie finger on his throwing hand, according to Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel. However, all signs are pointing toward Thompson.
Let’s look at how this one might play out in the early Sunday slot.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Guide >>
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
2023 NFL AFC Wild Card Best Bets for Sunday: Dolphins vs. Bills
Details
- Opening Line: Bills -11 | O/U 43.5
- Current Line: Bills -13.5 | O/U 45.5
- Last meeting: December 17, 2022 – Dolphins 29, Bills 32
Overview
In last week’s 11-6 victory over the New York Jets, Thompson completed 20 of 31 passes for 152 yards, securing the Dolphins’ postseason spot. The win came on the heels of a lackluster finish to the season, with one touchdown and three interceptions over two starts.
The Bills, who have been Super Bowl favorites since the spring, had a standout season with the second-best scoring offense (28.4 points per game) and second-best scoring defense (17.9 points allowed). Josh Allen was the team’s second-leading rusher (762 yards) behind Devin Singletary and threw for 35 touchdowns while also scoring seven more times on the ground.
Before Tagovailoa’s head injuries limited his availability, the Dolphins, who hadn’t won a postseason game since 2000, opened the season 8-3 thanks to the signing of Tyreek Hill (119 receptions for 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns).
Buffalo finished the regular season on a seven-game winning streak and will be buoyed by the latest encouraging developments regarding safety Damar Hamlin, who had a cardiac event in a Week 17 game against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bills are eager to welcome Hamlin back whenever he feels prepared, according to Bills coach Sean McDermott.
Bottom Line
The Dolphins and Bills split their regular-season meetings, with Miami triumphing 21-19 at home in Week 3 and 32-29 in Buffalo in Week 15, respectively. Tagovailoa played in both contests for the Dolphins, though.
Allen threw for four touchdowns in the Week 15 win and had 400 passing yards in the loss to Miami. He has an 8-2 career record versus Miami, which had the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL this season.
Injury issues for Miami extend far beyond the quarterback position. Raheem Mostert (891 yards), the leading runner, has a broken thumb and missed practice Wednesday, along with offensive lineman Terron Armstead and a host of others
Though the best number is gone, I still like the Bills to win this one by more than two touchdowns.
Pick: Bills -13.5
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