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Dolphins vs. Jets: NFL Black Friday Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Week 12)

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Let’s make some money so you can spend some money on Black Friday deals. Here are our best bets for Friday’s NFL special: Dolphins vs. Jets.

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Black Friday Special: Week 12

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (-9.5)

The line opened at Dolphins -8, and then it was announced that Zach Wilson would not be the starting quarterback. It will be Tim Boyle drawing the start for Gang Green after he saw some limited work last week. The line has since moved to -9.5/-10. Not sure I buy that line movement considering how bad Wilson has been playing quarterback.

Boyle started three games in 2021 for an injured Jared Goff with the Lions. 2-1 ATS. 0-3 straight up. Yet, he fueled Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2 games to 90-plus receiving yards

Miami is 4-1 ATS at home this season, winning by no less than two TDs in any contest except for last week. But they have not been nearly as great on the road. Just 2-3 ATS and straight up.

The Raiders are a feisty bunch and losing De'Von Achane/Tyreek Hill for parts of the game put a damper on the Dolphins' ability to cover the near double-TD spread at home. Still, I believe - as does the market – Miami can mostly overwhelm bad teams and fail to beat good teams. Think we see more of the same in Week 12. Although, the fact that it's a road game for the Dolphins is important.

Defensively for the Dolphins, the inexperienced Boyle is going to run into MAJOR issues against the Miami defense, which has played extremely well in their last three games before they went on a bye week. Just 285 total yards allowed per game. 2 straight unders.

Every game played in Miami has reached at least 47 points besides last week. 3-2 toward the over against bad offenses like the Patriots, Panthers and Giants. But on the road...it's been back-to-back unders. The offense hasn't posted more than 300 yards in either contest.

I am going to start to tail this recent trend. The Dolphins defense is starting to emerge while the offense has taken a backseat.

Against a strong Jets defense, I think we see this game be uglier than what we have been more accustomed to when it comes to the Dolphins at home. Again, even before the Jets got blown out by the Bills, their defense was keeping them in it. They held Buffalo to three straight field goals to open the game. Gang Green's defense is 5th in pass defense DVOA compared to 18th in run defense DVOA.

The Jets are 7-3 toward the under this season (on a streak of 5 straight unders). They will feed Breece Hall with Boyle at quarterback. Great for ball control and grinding out wins. Projections have him pegged for 15 carries.

But not for consistently hitting overs. I expect them to heavily lean into the rushing attack versus Miami's run defense which is their bigger weakness.

And although Boyle is not viewed as an "upgrade" by the market, I'll take any QB over Wilson to get the Jets to cover the double-digit home spread. As home underdogs, the Jets are 3-2 ATS.

As for the total, under is the must-play in this spot. I know I talk about Ford Field being the Coors Field of the NFL. Well, MetLife Stadium is the total opposite. 8-1 toward the under between the Jets/Giants.

Props: Tyreek Hill over 5.5 receptions. 80% hit rate this season. Don’t care that it’s the Jets. -125 on DraftKings. Also, Hill’s receiving yards prop is CRAZY low this week. I saw it as high as 90.5 receiving yards, but it flipped to 72.5 at some point Tuesday late afternoon. 70% hit rate. -115 BetMGM.

My Picks

  • Under 41
  • Jets +9.5

My Props

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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