6 Eagles Sports Betting Trends To Know for Super Bowl LIX (2025)

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Underdogs Have Had Success in Recent Super Bowls

Since 2020, underdogs are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) and 3-1 straight up (SU) in the Super Bowl. And in looking at it from the bigger picture taking every Super Bowl into account, underdogs are over .500 against the spread (29-27-2) and have won 22 of the 58 games (37.9%) outright. The Eagles face a Chiefs team that is 4-2 SU and ATS all-time in the Super Bowl, but 3-0 SU with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

This game is also bound to kick off as the 31st Super Bowl with a point spread of six or fewer points. The outright winner has covered the spread in 29 of the previous 30 games, while 15 underdogs and 15 favorites have each won outright.

Lastly, each of the last 14 Super Bowls had point spreads of five points or fewer. In those games, the underdogs went 9-5 SU, as Super Bowl XLIX between New England and Seattle closed as a pick’em. Underdogs are also 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls and covered 10 of the previous 12.

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Better Playoff Seeding Doesn't Mean Wins or Covers in the Super Bowl

For those that might be wondering why the Chiefs are small 1.5-point favorites despite only losing one meaningful game in which their starters played all season, the simple answer might be that No. 1 seed Kansas City has played 12 games (including playoffs) decided by one score this season, while the No. 2 seed Eagles out of the NFC had a much better point differential in the regular season (+160 compared to Kansas City’s +59).

However, the higher-seeded team in the Super Bowl has covered the spread in just 11.1% of the last 27 Super Bowls (2-16-2 ATS). In addition, the team with the better record (Kansas City is 15-2 compared to Philadelphia’s 14-3 record) is 2-12 SU in the last 14 Super Bowls and has covered just once in the last 17 since 2004.

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A Dominant Conference Championship Win Doesn’t Necessarily Translate to Super Bowl Success

Philadelphia’s 55 points in the NFC Championship Game were the most in a Conference Championship since the round was created in 1970. The Eagles used a dominant rushing attack to score most of those points. Their 39 rushing touchdowns (including the playoffs) are the second-most in NFL history, trailing only the 2022 Eagles (42).

The two other teams to score 45+ points in a Conference Championship, outside of the Eagles this year, were eventual Super Bowl losers (1990-91 Bills and 2015-16 Panthers).

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History is For and Against the Eagles

It has been well-documented that the Chiefs are aiming to become the first-ever three-peat Super Bowl champions in NFL history. While that figures to help Philadelphia’s chances, two key historical trends are working against the Eagles.

This is the second time in NFL history that the same two teams are meeting in a Super Bowl in three years. In the first such instance, the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills both times. In addition, Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni become the fifth pair of head coaches to rematch in a Super Bowl. In the previous four such instances, the coach who won the first matchup also won the second.

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Mahomes’ Success Against Vic Fangio Defenses

This is the ninth time Patrick Mahomes is facing a Vic Fangio-coached defense. Kansas City has won all of the previous eight meetings and covered the spread on six of those occasions. In addition, Mahomes has completed 64% of his passes and recorded a 10:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio against Fangio’s defenses.

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Proximity to the Super Bowl Matters

Super Bowl LIX is set in New Orleans, Louisiana. In terms of distance, the Chiefs will be the team closer to the Super Bowl site vs. the Eagles. In Super Bowl history, the team closer to the site of the game is 34-24 SU. When Kansas City beat San Francisco in Las Vegas last year, it broke a streak of six consecutive Super Bowl winners that were closer to the site of the game. The Super Bowl winner has been closer to the site of the game in seven of the last nine and 15 of the last 19 Super Bowls dating back to 2006.

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