Eagles vs. Packers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Wild Card Weekend)

Introducing the Wild Card Weekend edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Wild Card Weekend matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Eagles vs. Packers.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Wild Card Weekend Betting Primer>>

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Packers’ last four postseason games.
• Five of the Packers' six losses have come against playoff teams (Lions, Vikings, Eagles).
• GB is 1-4 ATS against playoff teams this season.
• Since 2023, the Packers have been 18-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 15-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-12 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
• The Packers have been the first to 15 points in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The Packers have won the first quarter in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The Packers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 21 games (57%).
• The Packers are 6-4 as road underdogs ATS (60%) over the last two seasons.
• The favorites have won 12 of the Packers' last 13 games.
• The Packers have won nine of their last 14 games.
• The Packers have covered the spread in the last nine of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
• The Packers are 9-10-1 ATS as home favorites (50%).
• Green Bay is 3-9 as a road favorite ATS (25%) and 12-11 on the money line.
• In six of the Packers' last seven games as favorites, the first score has been a Packers Touchdown.
• In the Eagles’ last three games, the first score has been an Eagles Touchdown.
• The Eagles have won 12 of their last 13 games.
• The Eagles have won 12 of their last 18 games as favorites (67%).
• The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in their last 13 games.
• The Eagles are 5-13-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
• They covered just five spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
• The Eagles were 15-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (67%).
• The Packers have a 21-point implied team total.
• The Eagles are 16-11 ATS as home favorites in their last 27 games (59%).
• The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 24 games.
• The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in their last 12 games.
• The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
• The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in 13 of the Eagles’ last 22 games.
• The Eagles have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
• The Eagles have lost six of their last 12 road games.

Totals:

• The Packers have scored first in 13 of their last 14 road games.
• Eleven of the Packers' last 15 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
• The Packers are 22-14 toward the over since the start of 2023.
• Fourteen of the Packers' last 25 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, 7 in Week 11, 17 in Week 12, 23 in Week 13, 7 in Week 14, 14 in Week 15 and 21 in Week 16. In week 17, they scored just three points in the first half. In Week 18, the Packers scored 13 in the first half.
• That's over 16 first-half points per game in Weeks 5-16, which would rank second in the NFL.
• Eleven of the Packers' last 19 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Green Bay is 3-6 O/U this season at home, averaging under 43.5 points per game.
• Thirteen of the Eagles' last 14 games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Eagles’ last eight games in January has gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Eagles are 1-7 toward the over at home this season (41.6 points per game).
• Each of the Eagles’ last five home games has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Eagles' last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Eagles are 15-20 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 7-12 toward the over on the road.
• The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-8 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023.
• Nine of the Eagles’ last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Packers are heading on the road to take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the first round of the NFL playoffs. But they are in rough shape. QB Jordan Love is banged up again after suffering a hand injury in Week 18 that kept him out of the second half. WR Christian Watson suffered a torn ACL injury.

The spread opened as Eagles -3.5 but immediately jumped to Eagles -4.5.

Green Bay has struggled mightily against top-tier competition this season, putting serious doubt in their upset potential on Sunday. Five of the Packers' six losses in 2024 have come against playoff teams (Lions, Vikings, Eagles). They are currently 1-4 ATS against playoff teams.

The "only" trend working in their favor in this matchup is their record ATS as road underdogs 6-4 (60%) and how quickly they can score at the start of games.

We know the Packers operate the best when they can establish a semblance of a rushing attack, and that is often accompanied by an early lead.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers offense led the NFL with a 49.4% called run play rate in the first half of games this season.

Even when accounting for game script and situational factors, the Packers were still the most run-heavy team in the first half of games, recording a +14.8% run rate over expected. At the full game level, the Packers ran the ball more than expected in all but one game this season (Week 4, vs MIN: -2.0%).

Given how Philly's offense can often start sluggish - especially after Jalen Hurts has missed the last two games - I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever to see the Pack jump out to an early lead (live betting opportunity on the Eagles’ side).

But Green Bay's postseason accolades from last season should also not be so easily forgotten. They were touchdown road underdogs or more against the Cowboys/49ers. They beat Dallas outright and lost to San Fran by three.

Ergo, the underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Packers’ last four postseason games.

I didn't think I would be siding with the Packers ATS before diving into the matchup, but I think that is the side I will settle on. Keep in mind that whether Philly covers the 4.5 spread is more dependent on their defense than offense.

If Green Bay scores 20-plus, it's likely accompanied by a cover from what we have seen from the Eagles defensively. The Love-led Packers offenses have scored at least 20 points in all but one game this season.

Although I don't think this will be an overly productive game for Love, I think he might be able to do enough as a passer against the Eagles blitz.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Eagles’ defense blitzed on 32.4% of the Packers team dropbacks in Week 1, their 3rd-highest blitz rate in a game this season.

Love was not sacked but completed just 6 of 12 passes against the blitz for 38 yards and a touchdown (3.2 YPA).

Love has recorded the 2nd-highest completion percentage (72.9%) and averaged the 9th-most yards per attempt (8.9) against the blitz following the Packers Week 10 bye.

As for the Packers defensively, they could also present some challenges for the Eagles. Keep in mind that the Eagles defense isn't the only strong unit playing. Vic Fangio's defense finished No.1 in DVOA this season, but the Packers weren't far behind at seventh overall.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers’ defense was able to hit opposing ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage on 48.8% of designed runs this season (4th-highest) and allowed just 0.6 yards before contact per designed run (3rd-fewest). The Eagles allowed the Packers to hit ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage on a season-high 58.1% of designed runs in Week 1 and gained just 13 rushing yards before contact.

The Packers’ defense allowed only 0.6 yards before contact per carry on designed runs between the tackles this season, the 2nd-fewest in the league.

They also only allowed an explosive gain (10+ yards) on 6.6% of runs directed between the tackles, the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

As for the total, I think you can probably guess where my lean is: Under at 45.5. I think this total line is sharp in what looks to me like a 23-20 or 24-20 type of game. Eagles home game hit heavy toward the under, which is par for the course of a team that wins with rushing/defense. The Packers are similar in that capacity.

But because I don't think the Eagles completely dominate this matchup, it's possible it just sneaks over. That's my biggest concern. Instead of a straight bet on the under, I also like a same-game teaser of Packers +10.5 and a game total under 50.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook).

Props:

Jordan Love has passed for under 227.5 passing yards in three straight games and five of his last seven games. All but two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels) have finished under their passing yards projection versus Philly's defense since their bye week. Love is also 3-7 toward his passing prop without Christian Watson over the last two seasons (1-6) on the road.

According to Next Gen Stats, Love averaged 7.3 yards per attempt against man coverage when Christian Watson was on the field compared to just 3.6 yards per attempt when he was off the field this season.

He also recorded a 17.5% explosive pass rate (15+ yards) against man coverage with Watson on the field, nearly five times his rate when Watson was off the field (3.6%).

No. 1 tight end Dallas Goedert also had a productive day, catching four passes for 55 yards on six targets. It was a strong showing for DG, given he only played 13 snaps (19% snap share). The Eagles TE was targeted on 67% of his routes run.

Seven of the last nine TEs the Packers have faced have gone for 36-plus receiving yards. According to Next Gen Stats, linebackers were the nearest defenders in coverage on 27.9% of total targets faced by the Packers defense this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

Packers linebackers have allowed the most receptions (117), most yards (1,193), and the 7th-most yards per target (8.0) as a unit.

Presuming Goedert is now fully back to health, he is in a sneaky production spot in the first round of the playoffs.

According to Next Gen Stats, Tucker Kraft totaled team-highs in targets (29), receptions (22), and yards (274) while tying for a team-high in touchdowns (3) against the blitz this season.

He accounted for just a 12.0% share of the Packers air yards against the blitz, the fourth-highest among Packers receivers trailing Dontayvion Wicks (29.7%), Romeo Doubs (21.0%), and Christian Watson (20.7%).

Kraft has gone over 35.5 receiving yards in three straight games and five of his last six. The Packers TE has surpassed his receiving yards prop in six straight games.

DeVonta Smith has played one game this season with a healthy A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert when he has gone over 5.5 receptions.

I talked about it in the overall breakdown of this game that this is a prime spot to scoop some value on Packers first TD odds as they look to shock the Eagles on the road. Josh Jacobs? Probably not. No team has allowed fewer TDs to RBs this season than the Eagles. So, let's make this bet on a Packers pass-catcher coming away with a TD.

Every single Packers receiver you can get at longer than 13-1 odds to score the first TD. Kraft (+1600) and Dontayvion Wicks (+1700) are the best options for both first and anytime TD bets. Kraft has been by far Love's most trusted and reliable red-zone target this season.

My Picks:

• Under 45.5
• Packers +4.5
• Jordan Love UNDER 226.5 passing yards
• Dallas Goedert OVER 33.5 receiving yards
• DeVonta Smith UNDER 5.5 receptions
• Tucker Kraft 1^st TD (+1600)
• Tucker Kraft OVER 34.5 receiving yards