Early Look at Super Bowl LVI: Breaking Down Rams vs. Bengals
The Super Bowl LVI matchup is officially set. The Cincinnati Bengals will travel to SoFi Stadium to battle the “home†team Los Angeles Rams.
Both teams won their respective conference championship games in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion. The Bengals seemed left for dead down 21-3 at half before dominating the final 30 minutes. Meanwhile, the Rams exorcised their demons by defeating the San Francisco 49ers.
Now, the Rams will be the second straight team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, which is a crazy feat in itself. And it’s the Rams who opened as 4-point favorites shortly after the conclusion of the NFC title game.
And now we wait. I always feel the two weeks between conference title weekend and the Super Bowl are two of the longest weeks of the year. But like the participating teams, bettors can also take advantage of the extra week to prepare.
From a betting perspective, here’s an early look at the Super Bowl LVI matchup.
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Can the Rams dominate the trenches?
My initial thought as the final seconds of the NFC Championship Game wrapped up was this: Oh boy, Aaron Donald and Von Miller get to go up against this Bengals offensive line.
The Rams could have an enormous advantage along the line of scrimmage. Los Angeles’ defensive line finished sixth in adjusted line yards, and L.A. recorded the third-most sacks in the NFL. You probably know this by now, but Cincinnati’s pass blocking is the team’s greatest weakness.
Obviously, Cincinnati knows this. And the Bengals devised a gameplan to help Burrow get the ball out fast. The second-year QB was sacked just once and hit only four times against the Chiefs in the AFC title game. But going up against Donald and Miller is an entirely different story. And unlike Kansas City, Los Angeles has a shutdown cornerback who can lock up Ja’Marr Chase.
These defensive lines ranked top 10 in adjusted line yards, so taking the under on rushing totals for Joe Mixon and Cam Akers could be worth a bet.
Jalen Ramsey vs. Ja’Marr Chase could decide the game
Of all the matchups we’ll dissect in Super Bowl LVI, the potential showdown between Ramsey and Chase will be the most pivotal. Ramsey is one of the few corners in the league who could contain Chase 1-on-1, and that is a massive advantage for the Rams.
We saw the Chiefs double-teaming and providing safety help for Chase throughout Sunday’s AFC title game. And that strategy generally worked, as Chase was held to just six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. But allocating safety allowed Tee Higgins to thrive with less attention on him.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Rams handle defending Chase. Will they shadow him with Ramsey, or mix up coverages? I suspect the Rams will give Ramsey this challenging assignment, and it wouldn’t stun me if the veteran wins this battle.
With that being said, I’ll be looking at Higgins and Tyler Boyd’s receiving totals, as I could see Burrow looking their way more often. I don’t think I can stomach betting a Chase under prop, but I’ll consider it.
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Matthew Stafford could thrive
The Bengals defense deserves all the credit in the world for dominating the Chiefs in the second half. But it felt more like poor execution from Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid than anything else. Mahomes threw for 275 yards and had three first-half touchdowns. And things won’t get much easier for Cincy against Stafford and the Rams.
Cincinnati ranks 24th in pass defense DVOA and gave up 6.3 net yards per pass attempt, the 12th highest mark in the league. They were particularly bad against tight ends, giving up the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most yards to opposing tight ends this season.
The problem is Rams starting tight end Tyler Higbee exited the game early with a knee injury and didn’t return. We’ll have to monitor Higbee’s health, but I might throw a few darts on some Kendall Blanton props if Higbee can’t go.
The Bengals will need Trey Hendrickson and their defensive line to make an impact against Stafford, but that’s easier said than done against a Rams offensive line that gave up the eighth-fewest sacks in the league.
Cooper Kupp could be in store for a big day, but Odell Beckham will be another player I’ll be tracking props on. The Chiefs don’t have a true No. 2 wide receiver behind Tyreek Hill, but Los Angeles has arguably the best receiving duo in the league with Beckham in town. It’ll be a tough task for the Bengals defense.
Early Super Bowl LVI Pick: Rams -4
Let me again remind everyone that I’m writing this roughly two hours after the Rams punched their ticket to the Super Bowl. Nothing’s an official play yet, but my early inclination is to lay the points with the Rams.
The Rams should do a better job of getting to and finishing sacks on Burrow, and they have a cornerback who can lock up his favorite target, Chase. I’ll be looking to fade the tailbacks on both teams, while looking at over props for Kupp, Beckham, Higbee and/or Blanton, Higgins and Boyd.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.