Early NFL Week 17 Lines and Predicted Movement (2021)
With Week 17 of the NFL slate upon us, we bid adieu to Thursday Night Football. That means a Sunday slate chock-full of betting opportunities. Odds this week are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Sunday, January 2 - 1:00 p.m. EDT
Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Los Angeles Chargers
O/U 50
Predicted movement: The Chiefs have asserted themselves as the cream of the crop in the AFC. The trend showing the Chiefs as a supreme defensive team has now been consistent for multiple months. The early-season concerns of their inconsistencies offensively were alleviated definitively when Patrick Mahomes torched the Steelers with no Travis Kelce and a COVID-impacted Tyreek Hill on Sunday. When it comes to the question of the AFC representative for the Super Bowl, it’s all over but the crying for all non-Chiefs teams.
KC’s toughest task that stands in the way of securing the playoff bye week in the AFC comes this week against the red-hot Bengals. Joes Burrow is living his best life, dropping dimes to his trio of talented receivers; Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Defensively, the Bengals aren’t as secure. This total has been on the move upward since it opened, a trend that should continue in the days and even hours leading up to the game. As for the spread, the Chiefs should be favored, but not by more points than the current five. Don’t overlook Burrow’s ability to keep this game close.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
O/U46.5
Predicted movement: What happened to this Ravens defense? The once-vaunted unit was on the wrong end of the Joe Burrow Experience in Week 16. That reality, coupled with the fact that they’ll have to oppose the Matthew Stafford-Cooper Kupp combo in Week 17, should send the total on a cloud toward 50 points in the days ahead. The Rams already moved from -2.5 to -3.5-point favorites since the line opened. The number should continue to push in that direction for another point or so in advance of the game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5) at New York Jets
O/U 45.5
Predicted movement: The name value discrepancy between Tom Brady and the New York Jets is going to send this line on a ladder into the sky. The Jets only opened as 10.5-point underdogs, but quickly saw the line move even further in favor of the Bucs. Is there a point at which the Jets become a value in their home stadium getting all these points? The better question: Who among us will be brave enough to take advantage if it happens?
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-14)
O/U 44
Predicted movement: Both the line and the total have held relatively steady early in the week for Falcons at Bills. The opening two-touchdown line is a significant barrier to entry for those trying to buoy the line even further toward the home team. But doesn’t this just feel like one of those classic obliteration games for Josh Allen? The Bills’ gunslinger is going nuclear. I think the betting public will start to ease into that mindset more firmly as the week develops, pushing the Bills even beyond the -14 line. The total might move slightly with it, just because it theoretically would have to if the Bills end up favored by a number higher than this one.
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
O/U 41
Predicted movement: Here’s a fascinating one with playoff implications. The Titans have the slightest of chances to earn the no. 1 overall seed in the AFC picture. They’re a game back of the Chiefs, but they do have the tiebreaker. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have followed up an early-season seven-game losing streak with a miraculous seven straight wins to climb back into the playoff picture. Miami has banked the bulk of their wins against weaker competition, so this test against the Titans will be the biggest one they’ve seen in some time.
Tennessee is projected to win an ugly one by the virtue of their getting this game at home. The point spread here shouldn’t stray too far from the home team as a field goal favorite, because these truly feel like two pretty evenly matched teams. Given the two tough defenses involved, the total might fall a point to 40.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-15.5)
O/U 42
Predicted movement: This game feels like it will go one of two ways. The previously dominant Patriots get their groove back after losing two tough games to two playoff-caliber opponents. They crush the Jaguars like the windshield bugs they are and we’ll be looking back saying there wasn’t a number in the world high enough for this point spread.
The other path is the knowledge that the Patriots offense isn’t the most consistent unit right now. If Mac Jones struggles again, this game could be closer than the number might indicate. The number opened closer to -16.5 in some spots but has held near the opening line at DraftKings. Given the massive number for a less-than-lethal offense, -15.5 might be where it tops out.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Football Team
O/U 46
Predicted movement: The Eagles should win this game easily, right? Miles Sanders is out, which hurts their rushing-centric offense, but Philly has been content to pound the ball on the ground regardless of their personnel this season. ‘Next Man Up’ mentality.
The mentality of the Washington Football Team last week was to… allow 42 points in the first half to a division rival. The embarrassment of that experience could whip them into shape this week. Or it could mean the Football Team just isn’t very good, and the Eagles are about to issue another reminder on that fact. Philly should be favored by more points by Sunday.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6)
O/U 37.5
Predicted movement: The Matt Nagy Redemption Tour rolls on! Chicago came back for an exciting win over the Seahawks last week. Now the Bears get another chance to win a game that doesn’t matter to convince themselves that Matt Nagy isn’t so bad after all when they take on the Giants this week. This is one of the lowest totals in recent memory. It’s for good reason. Two bad offenses, two adequate defenses. Points will be at a premium.
The line has moved already toward the Bears after opening at -4. It seems like -6.5 could be the ceiling simply because of the limited scoring expected in the game. The Bears are a better football team, though, so I would think covering a touchdown margin at home would be within their realm of possibility this week.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
O/U 44.5
Predicted movement: The early movement on this line has come as a result of the news that Colts QB Carson Wentz has been placed on the COVID list. With the new protocols in place, it’s theoretically possible that the unvaccinated gunslinger could clear the list in time to make this start. Nevertheless, the line has fallen from Colts -8 to Colts -6.5.
Regardless of who the Colts have behind center, Jonathan Taylor should be a menace in this one. And on the other side, the Raiders don’t boast any offensive pieces likely to make a difference in getting points on the board for Vegas. Indy allowed only 16 points to the Cardinals on Christmas night. Nothing Derek Carr does leads me to believe Las Vegas will fare any better than Kyler Murray did. Indy should be favored by a touchdown or more, but that likely won’t happen unless Wentz is cleared for action.
Sunday, January 2 - 4:05 p.m. EDT
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-13)
O/U 44.5
Predicted movement: What does it say about the Texans that they just beat the Chargers by 12 points, yet they’re still 13-point dogs to a team whose starting QB’s status is very much up-in-the-air at this point in the week? Well, the line opened even more in favor of the 49ers before the news of Jimmy Garoppolo’s thumb injury took hold. If it’s Trey Lance against the Houston defense this week, it’ll at least be a more manageable task than the rookie faced in his one previous start against the Cardinals earlier in the year.
Your view of the movement on the line probably depends on your level of comfort with Lance taking the reins. Personally, I trust the kid just as much as I do Jimmy G, so I view the movement toward the Texans as bonus points that I don’t have to lay to ride with San Francisco. But based on the early movement, confirmation of Jimmy G’s status–in or out–should send the line moving in one way or another between 1 and 2 points.
Sunday, January 2 - 4:25 p.m. EDT
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)
O/U 52
Predicted movement: The betting public’s belief in the Cowboys and in the scoring potential for this game has been climbing early in the week. Dallas opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 50 before those tallies both got a boost. These are two teams moving in opposite directions, so the Cowboys flying as far as -6.5 wouldn’t surprise me terribly.
I’m not sure I agree with the line movement of the over, as Dallas’ defense has been a force in recent weeks. Going against a struggling Cardinals offense that might not be able to get this game into the 50s, Dallas should come away with a healthy win.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
O/U 43
Predicted movement: The betting community sure doesn’t trust Pete Carroll! And why should it? The dude is running an antiquated system and his team is consistently underperforming, including when they blew a late lead against Chicago at home last week.
Seattle opened as 9-point favorites before dropping to -7 over the Lions for Week 17. The Lions are a scrappy bunch ripe for taking advantage of uninspired, meandering opponents like the Seahawks. I don’t know that the line should drop much further than it already has, but the movement we’ve seen so far has been appropriate. Seattle should come in around -6.5 to -7 by game time in what will likely be a low-scoring affair that struggles to get to the 43-point total.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
O/U 39
Predicted movement: The Saints were downright putrid with Ian Book at quarterback last week, so hopefully Taysom Hill is able to clear the COVID protocols prior to this Week 17 tilt with the Panthers. Even if he can’t, the Saints could probably win the game due to the sheer ineptitude of Matt Rhule’s squad. Regardless of whether it’s Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, or anybody else at QB for Carolina, the offense flat-out stinks.
The total of 39 is alarmingly low. It should move lower if the Saints get bad news about the health of their non-Book QBs heading into Sunday. If Hill makes the start, New Orleans should be bumped to favored by north of a touchdown.
Sunday, January 2 - 8:25 p.m. EDT
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5 at FanDuel)
O/U 47.5 (FanDuel)
Predicted movement: The total should be higher in what could be an exciting NFC North shootout. The Packers have displayed big-play ability on defense, but they still tend to allow their opponents to score into the 20s or better. The last time the Packers faced the Vikings, Kirk Cousins hung 34 points and defeated Green Bay.
That memory should probably haunt the Pack enough to ensure a win by at least a touchdown Sunday night. The total should probably hit 50, though. That line at FanDuel–the game is off the board at DK as of this writing, for some reason–feels like a real opportunity, at present.
Monday, January 3 - 8:15 p.m. EDT
Cleveland Browns (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
O/U 41
Predicted movement: Get ready for an ugly one in the AFC North. The Browns nearly found a way to upend the Packers on Christmas Day as a result of their strong running game and surprisingly gritty defense. Against the Pack, it wasn’t enough. Against the Steelers, those elements should be more than plenty to obliterate a washed-up Ben Roethlisberger.
Like, he’s really bad. And I get that there could be some sort of emotional appeal to ride the Steelers. It’s Ben’s final home start in front of the crowd at Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, sure. But if you 1. have seen Ben play this year and 2. Enjoy keeping your money, I do not suggest it. The Browns should have command of this game. The emotional aspect is the only possible reason they aren’t favored by a touchdown here.
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