Early Week 12 NFL Lines and Predicted Movement

by Mike Spector |
Nov 19, 2019

In Week 11, favorites went back to exerting their dominance. Entering Monday night, favorites were 11-2 SU and 8-4-1 ATS. Many of the games were blowouts, as just three of the 13 games were decided by seven points or less.

Week 12 has some very enticing matchups, with two games against first-place teams (Colts-Texans, Cowboys-Patriots) as well as a game that could determine home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs (Packers-49ers). When analyzing lines and predicting how they may move throughout the week, keep in mind scheduling advantages some teams may have over others. For example, three teams (Browns, Eagles, 49ers) will be playing their third-consecutive home games. Also, three west coast teams (Broncos, Raiders, Seahawks) travel to the east coast for 1:00 kickoffs.

Here is a look at the early NFL Week 12 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

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Thursday, November 21st â€“ 8:20 PM EST

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

O/U 46.5

Predicted Movement: The Colts and Texans both played in blowouts in Week 11. The Colts won their divisional matchup over the Jaguars by 20, while the Texans were routed by 34 in Baltimore. The winner of this game will take over sole possession of first place in the AFC South. These teams met in Week 7, with the Colts winning at home 30-23. The Texans are the home favorites in this contest, as they are 4-1 SU at home. Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has yet to throw an interception in a home contest. The Colts will likely be without running back Marlon Mack in this one, as he fractured his hand last week. That is a key injury and one that will likely keep the spread north of three in favor of Houston all week long.

Sunday, November 24th â€“ 1:00 PM EST

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

O/U 47

Predicted Movement: What in the world happened to Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen? He started his career on fire, going 4-0 SU and ATS. However, he and the Panthers have lost three of their last four games, the latest an embarrassing 29-3 home loss to the Falcons. In contrast, the Saints righted the ship with a dominant 34-17 win at Tampa Bay. Their sixth-ranked rushing defense will look to slow down Christian McCaffrey. These are two teams headed in opposite directions, and this number should rise to double digits by the end of the week.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-5)

O/U 36.5

Predicted Movement: The Denver Broncos made history last week, the wrong kind. They became the first team in the last 100 games to lose after leading by 20+ points at halftime. After blowing a 20-0 halftime lead against the Vikings, they still had two chances inside Minnesota's five to win late, but they threw two straight incompletions. Meanwhile, the Bills did what they needed to do, taking care of business in Miami 37-20. This is by far the lowest total on the board. Provided that there is not a blizzard in Buffalo this weekend, this total can only come up as lowering it would move it into historically low categories.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Washington Redskins

O/U 41.5

Predicted Movement: The Lions have lost three straight games, and they just received more bad news. The back injury that has kept Matthew Stafford out the last two games will likely sideline him the rest of the regular season. The good news is that they were able to move the ball against Dallas' defense, scoring 27 points and not committing any turnovers. Redskins quarterback Dwayne Haskins finally threw his first pair of touchdowns last week, but the defense was gashed in a 34-17 loss to the Jets. Oddsmakers made Washington favorites in last week's game, but they now drop to 0-5 at home and 1-9 on the season. The Lions did give up 509 total yards to the Cowboys, so there are some concerns about their defense. Since neither defense is playing well at the moment, this total should rise some by the end of the week.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-11)

O/U 44.5

Predicted Movement: The Browns will be playing in their first game since the brawl that marred last Thursday's win over Pittsburgh. Putting that unfortunate incident aside, the Browns have two consecutive impressive wins over the Bills and Steelers. They will be playing in their third straight home game, which is always a nice scheduling advantage. The Dolphins came back down to earth after a two-game winning streak, losing 37-20 to the Bills. This is the lone double-digit spread of the week. Double-digit underdogs have been kind to bettors of late, as all three (Broncos, Cardinals, Bengals) covered large spreads in Week 11. Because of recency bias, don't be surprised to see bettors respect Miami, potentially moving this line closer to -10.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6.5)

O/U 40.5

Predicted Movement: The biggest question surrounding the Bearsâ€™ latest 17-7 loss to the Rams is if Mitchell Trubisky really has a hip injury, or if he got benched late. Coach Matt Nagy said Trubisky suffered a hip pointer injury in the second quarter, which only got worse as the game went on. Now we will wait and see about his status for Sunday. If he cannot go, Chase Daniel will replace him. Trubisky and the Bears once again wasted a solid defensive effort, as they could only generate 267 yards of total offense. The Giants are coming off of a bye and are currently on a six-game losing streak. Keep an eye on the injury status of Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram, among others. As poorly as Trubisky has played, this line would likely climb north of a touchdown if he were cleared as opposed to Daniel having to start.

Oakland Raiders (-3.5) at New York Jets

O/U 47.5

Predicted Movement: It was not pretty, but the Raiders won their third straight game, holding off the Bengals 17-10. The Jets have found an offensive resurgence of late, posting back-to-back 34 point totals in wins over the Giants and Redskins. They will look to keep their offensive momentum against the Raiders defense that ranks 21st in PPG allowed with 25.0 PPG. Bettors should also keep in mind the Raiders are traveling from the west coast to play a 1:00 EST game. The Raiders have not been great historically in this spot, and the spread should not rise much accordingly.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

O/U 39.5

Predicted Movement: The Steelers are also in their first game action since Thursday night's brawl with Cleveland. That loss ended a four-game winning streak. While Pittsburgh's offense has floundered of late, their defense has been outstanding, not allowing more than 24 points in their last five games. Ryan Finley and the Bengals don't exactly have the offense to light up this stout defense, but they are capable of keeping games close. Half of their ten losses have been decided by one score. The Steelers will miss the talent and the leadership of center Maurkice Pouncey as he was suspended three games for his role in last week's fight. I expect the already low total to come down even more given that the Steelersâ€™ offensive line will be compromised, while their defense continues to play at an elite level.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-2)

O/U 49

Predicted Movement: It is never going to be pretty facing the Patriots defense, but the Eagles could only muster 255 total yards and ten points at home last week. Carson Wentz is struggling without his top playmakers, as DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Jordan Howard all did not play. Perhaps the biggest injury came during the game when right tackle Lane Johnson left with a concussion. The Seahawks are coming off a bye, but the Eagles deserve to be favorites since Seattle is traveling across the country for an early start. The biggest move for the week should be in the total, as it will drop significantly if many of the Eaglesâ€™ playmakers are once again ruled out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

O/U 53

Predicted Movement: The Falcons can make a case that they are the most impressive team in football through the last two weeks. They have gone two consecutive weeks without allowing a touchdown to division rivals, and they get their chance at a third against the Bucs. Atlanta beat New Orleans and Carolina by an average of 21.5 points. Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston struggled mightily again last week, throwing four more interceptions. As a result of Atlanta's resurgence, the spread may tick up another point or so. However, the biggest move should be in the over/under. Given Atlanta's two straight weeks of defensive dominance, this over/under should kick off closer to 50.

Sunday, November 24th â€“ 4:05 PM EST

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)

O/U 41.5

Predicted Movement: The Jaguars have lost back-to-back games by an average of 21.5 points to division opponents. They face their third straight division opponent this week in Tennessee. Nick Foles looked OK in his return from injury, but the Jaguarsâ€™ best chance for success is more of a balanced offense. Against the Colts, they threw 47 times and attempted just nine runs. Tennessee's last three games have all reached a total of 50 points. This may lead bettors to wonder why the over/under is so low. However, their two games against divisional opponents have totaled just 36 and 27 points, respectively. It would take a ton of money on either side to move this spread off the key number of three. I don't see support for the Jaguars coming off of two blowout losses, but this spread may rise to -3.5 since the Titans are off a bye.

Sunday, November 24th â€“ 4:25 PM EST

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6)

O/U 46

Predicted Movement: This is the worst the Patriots offense has looked in quite some time, yet they still stand at 9-1. They welcome the Cowboys to Foxborough in a matchup of two first-place teams. Dallas has won three of their last four games. However, none of their six wins have come against teams with a winning record. There will always be public support on the Cowboys, but that stat is alarming. Sharp money may pick up on that and move the line closer to a touchdown.

Sunday, November 24th â€“ 8:20 PM EST

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

O/U 45.5

Predicted Movement: The 49ers avoided disaster last week, using a late fourth-quarter comeback to knock off division rival Arizona. This matchup should go a long way in determining home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Green Bay can tie San Francisco for best overall record in the NFC with a win while being able to hold the all-important head-to-head tiebreak in the process. That said, there is a bit of a scheduling quirk to sort through in this matchup. The Packers come off a bye while the 49ers are playing their third straight home game. The spread shouldn't move off the key number of three. However, the over/under could tick up some given bettors' respect for Aaron Rodgers.

Monday, November 25th â€“ 8:15 PM EST

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams

O/U 48

Predicted Movement: While Russell Wilson was on a bye last week, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson may have just moved ahead of him in the MVP race. He threw for four more touchdowns and ran for 86 yards in a 41-7 rout of the previously first-place Texans. The Ravens are on a six-game winning streak, beating opponents by an average of 18.3 PPG. The Rams won an uninspiring 17-7 win over the Bears in a game their offense didn't need to do much. The silver lining is they found their ground game again. Todd Gurley received a season-high 28 touches and amassed 133 total yards. The Ravens are too hot and too much in the public eye for this line to come down any. If anything, their electric offense would be the reason why the over/under may tick up slightly before kickoff.