EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix: NASCAR at COTA Odds, Picks & Predictions
A Change of pace - we can all use one from time to time. NASCAR is no different.
There's usually an air of excitement that comes with the first road course of the Cup Series season, and the feeling is only amplified this year. Spring is on the edge of sprung, just as right turns return to stockcar racing. The sport heads to Circuit of the Americas (COTA), a 20-turn, 3.426-mile racetrack on the outskirts of Austin, Texas.
Adding an extra wrinkle, NASCAR introduces a new road course tire package and eliminates stage breaks from road courses this season. 2016 was the last time we've seen a style race like this, which puts a bigger emphasis on pure speed.
With only two Cup Series races at COTA before, here's what data sets we're factoring in:
- 2022 COTA total speed rankings* & finishes
- 2022 overall road course total speed rankings* & finishes
- 2022 COTA fastest drivers late in a run*
- Recent performance (slightly)
- 2021 COTA finishes (slightly)
*via ifantasyrace.com
Our overall card walked away positive from Atlanta, but thanks to some superspeedway bad luck, our featured wagers went 1-2. Let's change the tides with this week's best bets for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix.
EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix: NASCAR at COTA Odds, Picks & Predictions
All bet recommendations are for 1u.
Top 5: Tyler Reddick (+185 via Barstool Sportsbook)
Tyler Reddick struggled to begin his first season with 23XI racing. However, he’s reeled off two T5s in a row and is heading to where he’s most dangerous; road courses. Reddick’s overall total speed ranking on road courses was second-best. Same with his total speed ranking at COTA specifically.
Additionally, Reddick has the fourth-best average finish here (7.0), a product of his NASCAR-leading average starting position (2.5) at COTA, plus his eighth-fastest speed late in a run here last year.
The biggest question surrounding Reddick coming in is if the switch from Chevy to Toyota will hurt him on road courses. Toyota’s certainly had their struggles away from ovals last season, but Kurt Busch was fast here early last season in this No. 45 car before getting off track. In addition, Reddick was courted by Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan, in part, to fix Toyota’s road course program. I think the 27-year-old does just that Sunday.
Top 10: Ryan Blaney (+100 via Barstool Sportsbook)
By the time you’re reading this, there’s a chance this number isn’t available anymore at such a reasonable price tag. Either way, a T10 for Ryan Blaney should be in the cards. Like Reddick, I expect Blaney to qualify well, coming into COTA sporting the second-best average starting position (5.0) at the track. Blaney should also be quick in the closing laps, as he had top-five speed late in a run last year.
His total speed ranking was also fourth here at COTA last year and 10th on all road courses. The No. 12 team has three T10s in five races this season. Time to get in on the action.
Matchup: AJ Allmendinger (+100) vs. William Byron (-120) via DraftKings Sportsbook
The only way I can see William Byron beating AJ Allmendinger head-to-head on Sunday is if the No. 24 unloads as a rocket. Byron’s best finish at COTA is 11th, and his 2022 total speed ranking here lists him 12th. These are solid metrics from a decent road course racer.
AJ Allmendinger, on the other hand, is a road course ringer. His two career Cup Series victories are on road courses, which is a big reason why he’s driving the No. 16 car full-time this season. He walked away from COTA with a T5 in 2021. Last year, he was third in total speed ranking and the third-fastest car late in a run before getting caught up in late-race chaos. Don’t be surprised to hear Allmendinger’s name making a late-race charge on Sunday, possibly even for the win.
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Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.