Elite 8 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023 NCAA Tournament)
March Madness is here, which means itâs time for me to dust off the olâ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players Iâve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
Iâll be honest: I donât follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I donât take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a âmodelâ (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA menâs basketball tournament, and since then Iâve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 252-195, +44.31 units (Through Sweet 16 Thursday)
In addition to projecting players this year, Iâm also teaming up with some folks here behind the scenes to create official team forecasts for every NCAA tournament game.
Elite 8 Picks & Predictions
Elite 8 Same Game Parlay Picks
Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:
- Kansas State vs. Florida Atlantic: Elite 8 Best Bets
- Gonzaga vs. UConn: Elite 8 Best Bets
- NBA Player Prop Bet Rankings Picks & Predictions
- NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NHL Player Prop Bets Picks
- XFL Week 6 Best Bets
- UFC on ESPN 43 Picks & Predictions
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2023 March Madness Player Prop Bets
Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State
Florida Atlantic
Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
Alijah Martin Over 5.5 Rebounds | 122 | 1 | 1.22 | FD |
Nick Boyd Under 1.5 3Ps | 145 | 1 | 1.45 | DK |
Kansas State
Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
Desi Sills Under 1.5 Assists | 125 | 1 | 1.25 | MGM |
Markquis Nowell Under 8.5 Assists | -120 | 1.2 | 1 | FD |
UConn vs. Gonzaga
UConn
Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
Alex Karaban Over 7.5 Points | -135 | 1.35 | 1 | DK |
Gonzaga
Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
Malachi Smith Under 4.5 Rebounds | -132 | 1.32 | 1 | FD |
Get access to expert NCAA Tournament picks now >>
Hereâs what I expect to be my general flow for working and betting over the course of March Madness.
- Monitor our premium spread projections and total projections.
- Track any team-level bets I make in our BettingPros app. I donât plan to go too heavy into this market since this is my first year with NCAA game projections.
- Do player projections (points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made and free throws made).
- Publish a premium article for every game with all of my player projections and prop bets. Since I donât follow college basketball, I wonât provide any analysis with my picks, especially given the time crunch of March Madness. Just doesnât seem worth it.
- Post some of my favorite player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord.
If thereâs a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.
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More Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
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