Erickson’s NFL Conference Championship Round Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Erickson |
Jan 25, 2024

Welcome to Andrew Erickson's NFL CHAMPIONSHIP Weekend player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your NFL Playoff betting.

We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
Week 2 was a step back, going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big - as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do - with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
But Week 4 was rough, fam...Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London, and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
Four weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
But in Week 5, we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert's 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall, with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8), but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8, and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday, OBJ!
Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
In Week 11, we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7, including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble, and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
Thanksgiving day, we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props, and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.
But the highlight of Week 12 was the official player props from last week's article. Oh baby, did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI.
Week 13 brought some losses based on injuries, but we still came out in the green overall at 9-8. It was looking grim after Sunday, but a big game and anytime TD score from Evan Engram got us firmly in the winning column.
As for Week 14. It was a flat week. 9-9 straight up. But at least we hit on the Javonte Williams and Cade Otton anytime TDs.
Week 15...more of the same. 10-9. So far, no Christmas Gifts. The Ravens' passing game underwhelming hurt us badly.
Week 16 was generous during the holiday season. 10-5 straight up on the 15 props. YTLSI.
Week 17 was flat at 8-7.
But that was NOT the case in Week 18. Note to self. Don't bet on Week 18 player props in 2024. 7-6 overall on props, in a disappointing week.
Our overall record for Weeks 1-18 is 143-121-1 on official props (54%) this season. Heating up at the right time as the postseason props arrive.
New Year, New Me. Let's dominate these postseason player props.
And that's EXACTLY what we did, in the Wild Card Round. Domination folks. 8-7 overall with my 5-leg slip on the Browns/Texans game hitting on Prizepicks.
But better yet, we SMASHED the anytime TD market on Sunday/Monday. Chris Godwin, Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson, Puka Nacua and Dallas Goedert ALL hit paydirt.
In the Divisional Round, the anytime TDs continued to rain profits. 11-8 overall last week with TD scores by Tucker Kraft and Mike Evans.
Note that this is coming out earlier than normal, so I will go back and update with additional player props as I see fit, along with any injury-related news items.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won't make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

Eighteen-plus weeks of thrilling NFL action, and I can say I am fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let's turn the obsession into a profit with 3 games to GO.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson's NFL Conference Championship Weekend NFL Player Prop Bets

Isiah Pacheco over 14.5 rushing attempts (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting running back Isiah Pacheco rushed for nearly 100 yards (97) averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, long of 29 yards, while catching his lone target for 14 yards. He played 72% of the snaps last week.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 2 attempts, 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per attempt, long of 28 yards.

I expect Pacheco to keep getting fed as a rusher, so I am looking at the over on his 64.5 rushing yards prop this weekend. Pacheco has 89-plus rushing yards in three straight games and 60 or more in 6 of his last 8 games played.

Also love the over on Pacheco's 14.5 rushing attempts. Gone over in three straight games and 7 of his last 8 games. At +100 odds and with a projection in the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet set at 16 carries, you need to be all OVER this player prop.

The Ravens' run defense has hardly been a gauntlet. Since Week 6, they have allowed 93 rushing yards per game to RBs at the fourth-highest yards per carry (4.7). 6 of the last 8 RBs they have faced went over 55 rushing yards.

Lamar Jackson under 210.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

I am leaning heavily toward the under on Lamar Jackson's passing yardage set at 211.5 passing yards. The Chiefs' defense has held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to sub-200 yard passing yards the last two weeks. No QB their first team defense has faced in the last four weeks has gone for more than 200 yards through the air. 7 of the last 9 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards. Since Week 14 they have allowed one QB to go over 200 passing yards.

Lamar Jackson over 63.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Conversely, I want to take the over on Jackson's rushing yards prop set at 63.5 rushing yards. Heâ€™s gone over in three of his last five games.

The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season. They have also allowed 3 straight rushing OVERs to opposing QBs.

Christian McCaffrey under 19.5 rushing attempts (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

I "cheated" finding this prop. Christian McCaffrey under 19.5 rushing attempts. Per the BettingPros' Player Props Streak Tool, CMC has gone under 19.5 carries in seven straight games. And the matchup against an elite Lions run defense projects for an eighth straight under.

They have not allowed RB to surpass 70 yards against them ALL SEASON. Fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs this season (60.5). No RB they have faced has surpassed 20 carries against them all season.

Brock Purdy over 272.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Brock Purdy didn't play a great game in the Divisional Round. He completed 23 of 39 passes for 252 yards and threw another pass that should have been easily intercepted in rainy conditions.

Luckily for him and the 49ers' faithful, they made enough plays in the end to beat Green Bay en route to the NFC Championship game where they will face the Lions.

Detroit's pass defense keeps on bleeding yards to QBs. The Lions have allowed an absurd number of passing yards over their last five games. Nearly 375 passing yards per game. Detroit has also allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last two months. Purdy has at least 252 passing yards in every single game he has played at home this season.

Brandon Aiyuk over 79.5 receiving yards (-115 ESPN Bet)

Aiyuk made some critical plays last week but was unable to post strong overall receiving numbers with only 3 catches and 36 yards on 6 targets (17% target share).

He still played 100% of the snaps, and will likely be more involved if Deebo Samuel has to miss the next game. Considering it's a pain tolerance injury that Samuel will have to rehab by giving him 50/50 odds of playing the 49ers' offensive game plan will undoubtedly be more focused around their other core 3 players.

Therefore, let's pair Purdy with Brandon Aiyuk's receiving yards prop set at 79.5 receiving yards. Have to imagine a horrible Lions secondary is the BOOM spot for Aiyuk after a few down games. Aiyuk is the primary downfield and air yards threat for the 49ers offense. Regression is coming. The Lions rank 1st in air yards and second in ADOT faced this season. Aiyuk has 3 110-yard games in his last 6 while finishing with fewer than 40 yards in the other 3. Alternate this bad boy to 100-plus? You bet.

George Kittle over 59.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Also, take the easy over on George Kittle's receiving props in yardage. Kittle EATS with no Samuel, potentially more than any other 49ers' Big 3. Nearly 91 yards per game in Purdy starts without Deebo healthy including last week.

Kittle has also gone over 60 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games, including 7 of the 49ers' 8 home games played this season.

Jared Goff over 255.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The 49ers have allowed the 3rd-most completions this season to QBs. The 4 of the last 6 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. 8 of 12 have hit the over on their completions prop. You are going to see more passing volume across the board for Jared Goff, especially as road underdogs. Goff has gone for 257-plus yards in six straight games, with 270 or more in five of those contests. On a current streak of four straight overs at 263.5 passing yards.

Jared Goff under 1.5 rushing yards (-120 BetMGM)

I also love the UNDER on Goff's rushing yards. Went over last week, because he scrambled for 7 yards against a blitz-heavy defense. It was Goff's first scramble since Week 13. Given that the 49ers don't blitz (third-lowest blitz rate) this is an easy under to SMASH for the immobile Goff. Not to mention, the 7 of the last 9 QB SF has played have gone UNDER their rushing yards projection.

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 7.5 receptions (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Amon-Ra St. Brown had a "down" game, compiling just 77 yards on 8 catches and 14 targets (33% target share) with 1 TD score versus the Buccaneers.

But note that the 49ers have allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season. Even after the Sun God came up short in the yardage props last week, little doubt he won't hit his receptions prop in this spot. He has 7-plus catches in 5 of his last 6 games. Take the MORE THAN 7.5 receptions for Amon-Ra this weekend on Prizepicks.

Jameson Williams over 27.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jameson Williams saw four targets and 78 air yards, although he played fewer snaps (78% vs 58%) than Josh Reynolds (3 targets, 1 TD) against Tampa Bay. The second-year speedster continues to see up-and-down usage alongside Reynolds.

Still, he hit his receiving yards prop last week, and it's low again at 27.5 receiving yards this week. Going right back to the OVER on this number, given Williams' big-play ability. He has 40 or more yards in 6 of his last 8 games played.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 46.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

Take the OVER on Gibbs' rushing yards. He has at least 40 rushing yards in every single road game the Lions have played this season. Also gone over 46.5 yards in 7 of his last 9 games played this season.

David Montgomery under 46.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Still, the 49ers will be a much tougher defense to run on than pass on. Aaron Jones was the first player in the last 51 games to rush for 100 yards against the 49ers run defense. Would expect their run defense to settle in after being gashed by big explosive rushes by Jones in the Divisional Round. Before Jones' performance, the 49ers had allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards to 7 of the last 8 RBs they faced. And the only "over" by James Conner, came on an explosive rush.

That plays more into the strengths of Gibbs, who ranks 3rd in the NFL in breakaway rate at 38%, versus Montgomery, who has one rush of 15 yards since Week 13 (last 8 games). One in his last 110 carries (5%) and last 8 games.

Pound the LESS than on Montgomery's 48.5 rushing yards in the NFC Title Game. It's a Gibby week folks...not a Monty week.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for the NFL Playoffs.

Patrick Mahomes (+650/+3100) - Patrick Mahomes has STILL not scored yet this season. It's his first season that he has failed to score a TD during the regular season. Considering the lack of a supporting cast around the Chiefs QB, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do more on his own, as he often scrambles more in the postseason. In Week 16, he had a season-high 10 carries for 53 rushing yards. In the Wild Card Round, he came close to another rushing score on a red-zone rushing attempt. No player has more combined red-zone and attempts (14) than Mahomes does without a TD scored this season, per the FantasyPros 1st TD scorer report.

Mecole Hardman (+1200/+4700) - I'm not so sure how much more money I can lose on the Mecole Hardman anytime TD bets. He fumbled twice last week, and actually came extremely close to scoring before he ultimately fumbled in the end zone versus the Bills. He finished with 1 target (5%), 1 reception and 2 receiving yards. Also rushed inside the goal line and fumbled through the end zone for a touchback ruling. 5th in WR snaps (38%).

Even so, the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Research Tool has Hardman as the highest EV Bet this week (+35%) so I am going right back to it. The Ravens don't allow a lot of WR yards, but they bleed targets (2nd) and receptions (12th). They have also faced the most WR red-zone targets this season.

The Chiefs tied with SF for the most 1st passing TDs this season (6 to WRs).

Justice Hill (+330/+1800) - The second-highest EV bet per the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Research Tool is on Justice Hill at +330 to score. He ranks second among all RBs in total rushing yards since Week 6 to have not scored a rushing TD. Fresh off a game that saw Hill post a season-high in rushing yards (66) and tie his highest carry total (13) since Week 9, we could see the fifth-year man get more work. Even though Gus Edwards is the prototypical red zone back for Baltimore, Hill has seen seldom usage inside the red zone throughout the season. He has 15 red zone touches since Week 6, with one receiving TD. Since Keaton Mitchell's injury, Hill has seen at least 2 red-zone carries or a red-zone target in three straight games. The Ravens lead the NFL in first rushing TD scores (9), 6 of which have been by RBs.

Jahmyr Gibbs (+140/+950) - Gibbs has a 41% cover probability per the BettingPros Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tool to score against the 49ers. Note that the 49ers finished with the 4th-most passes to the red zone during the regular season while ranking 32nd in rushing red-zone carries faced. If DET is going to score inside the 20-yard line, it's going to be through the air. And who better than Gibbs to see the rock in the air, given his 7 red-zone targets this season. Josh Reynolds (+400/+2500) is also a nice longer shot bet as the Lions WR2/3 given he has 10 red-zone targets this season as one of Jared Goff's underrated weapons in that area of the field.

Brandon Aiyuk (-115/+800) - The Lions rank second in RZ touches and fourth in red-zone targets to WRs this season. Therefore, it's the perfect opportunity to buy the dip on Brandon Aiyuk and his anytime TD odds even at -110 odds. Aiyuk has had just 5 red-zone targets/attempts all season. He could see that total red-zone usage in this game alone, especially with Deebo Samuel iffy for Championship Sunday. If you want a bigger payout, bet the 1^st TD score for Aiyuk. The 49ers tied with KC for the most 1^st passing TDs this season (6 to WRs). Aiyuk has scored a 1^st thrice this season more than any other non-CMC 49ers player.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Erickson’s NFL Conference Championship Round Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

Erickson's NFL Conference Championship Weekend NFL Player Prop Bets

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

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