Erickson’s NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Erickson |
Jan 18, 2024

Welcome to Andrew Erickson's NFL Divisional Weekend player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your NFL Playoff betting.

We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
Week 2 was a step back, going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big - as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do - with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
But Week 4 was rough, fam...Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London, and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
Four weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
But in Week 5, we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert's 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall, with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8), but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8, and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday, OBJ!
Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
In Week 11, we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7, including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble, and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
Thanksgiving day, we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props, and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.
But the highlight of Week 12 was the official player props from last week's article. Oh baby, did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI.
Week 13 brought some losses based on injuries, but we still came out in the green overall at 9-8. It was looking grim after Sunday, but a big game and anytime TD score from Evan Engram got us firmly in the winning column.
As for Week 14. It was a flat week. 9-9 straight up. But at least we hit on the Javonte Williams and Cade Otton anytime TDs.
Week 15...more of the same. 10-9. So far, no Christmas Gifts. The Ravensâ€™ passing game underwhelming hurt us badly.
Week 16 was generous during the holiday season. 10-5 straight up on the 15 props. YTLSI.
Week 17 was flat at 8-7.
But that was NOT the case in Week 18. Note to self. Donâ€™t bet on Week 18 player props in 2024. 7-6 overall on props, in a disappointing week.
Our overall record for Weeks 1-18 is 143-121-1 on official props (54%) this season. Heating up at the right time as the postseason props arrive.
New Year, New Me. Letâ€™s dominate these postseason player props.
And thatâ€™s EXACTLY what we did, in the Wild Card Round. Domination folks. 8-7 overall with my 5-leg slip on the Browns/Texans game hitting on Prizepicks.
But better yet, we SMASHED the anytime TD market on Sunday/Monday. Chris Godwin, Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson, Puka Nacua and Dallas Goedert ALL hit paydirt.
Note that this is coming out earlier than normal, so I will go back and update with additional player props as I see fit, along with any injury-related news items.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won't make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

Eighteen-plus weeks of thrilling NFL action, and I can say I am fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let's turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson's NFL Divisional Weekend NFL Player Prop Bets

Devin Singletary over 54.5 rushing yards (-120 ESPNBET)

Devin Singletary once again spearheaded the Texans backfield in the wildcard round, rushing 13 times for 66 yards and 1 TD (had another big run called back due to holding). He logged 72% of the snaps. Dameon Pierce had 3 carries and played just 13% of the snaps. Singletary's stranglehold on the RB1 job in Houston has not budged.

I am leaning toward the OVER on Singletary's rushing line prop set at 54.5 rushing yards this week. He's gone over in 5 of his last 6 games. And the Ravens' run defense has hardly been a gauntlet. Since Week 6, they have allowed nearly 100 rushing yards per game to RBs at the second-highest yards per carry (4.8). 6 of the last 7 RBs they have faced went over 55 rushing yards.

Isaiah Likely over 43.5 receiving yards (Prizepicks)

If Mark Andrews doesn't play, we should see another massive game for tight end Isaiah Likely. The Texans are allowing the most receiving yards to tight ends this season (65). Take the over on Likely's 43.5 receiving yards prop. He has 40 or more yards in 5 straight games as the starter.

C.J. Stroud over 240.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I like the over in Texans/Ravens, along with the over on C.J. Stroud's 240.5 passing prop. Gone OVER in back-to-back games. The Ravens' first-team defense has allowed 240-plus yards to 3 of the last 4 QBs they have faced. In Stroud's first game in the NFL, he threw for 242 against the Ravens on the road despite a totally depleted offensive line.

Dalton Schultz under 36.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Dalton Schultz played the most tight end snaps in the Wildcard Round and scored on his lone catch for a 37-yard touchdown. The impending free agent dropped his other target. Brevin Jordan took his one catch 76 yards to the house. Jordan's a YAC monster who also played 50% of the snaps. Would be leaning toward the under on Schultz's receiving prop this week. Just not involved enough consistently in the offense, and the matchup is tough versus Baltimore. Gone under his prop in three straight games and under in 5 of his last 7 games with Jordan playing. He has stark receiving splits with Jordan active in the lineup.

Gus Edwards under 51.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

Take the under on Gus Edward's 51.5 rushing yards. Still somewhat in a committee with Justice Hill. And since Week 8, just three RBs have surpassed their rushing totals against Houstonâ€™s stonewall run defense. 8 of the last 10 RBs have finished UNDER their projected rushing yardage. Three have hit 50 yards.

George Kittle over 52.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Packers bleed big gains to tight ends (second-highest yards per reception allowed) ranking 26th in DVOA against the position. We saw this 49ers offense take on Joe Brady's Green Bay defense twice back in 2021, with tight end George Kittle being the constant threat that was very productive. He went over 52 yards in both games against this Packers defense.

He has also gone over 52.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including 6 of the 49ers' 7 home games played this season. Kittleâ€™s +145 anytime TD prop is one of the highest EV bets per the BettingPros Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tool. 35% cover probability. The Packers have faced the third-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season.

Christian McCaffrey over 89.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Again, it is very much a "pick your flavor" when it comes to chasing the "MORE THANS/OVERS" on 49ers players. The over on Christian McCaffrey's rushing yardage at 88.5 yards might be the obvious/safest wager to make. Gone over in 6 of his last 8 games played. In one game he didn't finish because of an injury. The Packers can easily be run on, and I'd expect a full workload for CMC off two weeks of rest. Six of the last 10 RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

Jordan Love over 247.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

On the other side of this SF-GB matchup, I would expect another high-octane and volume passing effort from Jordan Love. The 49ers have allowed the 3rd-most completions this season to QBs. The 4 of the last 5 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. 8 of 11 have hit the over on their completions prop.

You are going to see more volume across the board for all the Packers quarterback. Love has gone for 255-plus yards in 8 of his last 10 games played (80%). Love pairing Love with his No. 1 WR as well in the same game parlays.

Jayden Reed over 3.5 receptions (-130 ESPNBET)

Jayden Reed was not needed, going 0-for-3 on his targets in the wild-card round. Still ranked third in snaps from the slot (46%) and just 11 routes overall with the Packers winning with efficiency, not volume, in their passing attack. Expect him to bounce big in a big way as the Packers' best WR. Note that the 49ers have allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season. Reed is the quick-read slot option for Love, who should look to his rookie frequently in this spot.

Before last week, Reed had gone for at least 4 receptions in eight straight games. Over 3.5 receptions for Reed is this week's stone-cold lock of the week.

Luke Musgrave under 21.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tucker Kraft over 24.5 receiving yards (-122 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Also would opt for the UNDER on Luke Musgrave's 24.5 receiving yards prop. The 49ers rank 4th in DVOA against tight ends. Still, they have allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to tight ends since Week 10. Therefore I'll take the MORE than on Kraft's 24.5 receiving yards prop given he is the starting tight end in the offense.

Jared Goff over 270.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Because we love the over in this matchup, you should be betting on player props aggressively.

Given the pass-funnel nature of the Buccaneers' defense (5th-highest pass rate faced) lock-and-load over on Jared Goff's passing yards prop at 270.5 passing yards. He has 270-plus yards in four of his last 5 games. At home, he has gone over in four of his last 5 games at Ford Field aka the Coors Field of the NFL. He also threw for 350 when he faced this defense earlier this season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 89.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Who better to pair Goffâ€™s passing yards prop than with the SUN GOD himself, as he continues to be on an absolute heater, posting bonkers numbers.

Amon-Ra has gone for 95 or more receiving yards in 7 of his 8 games played at home this season. No fewer than 77 receiving yards in any home game this season. St Brown also has 90-plus receiving yards in 4 straight games. Amon-Ra went for 124 yards when these teams played earlier this season. We trusted the sun god last week, and he didn't let us down. Rinse and repeat.

Baker Mayfield over 253.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)

Baker Mayfield cooked the Eagles like a Thanksgiving Turkey in the first round of the NFL playoffs. 337 passing yards and 3 TDs.

The yardage won't stop this week.

The Lions have allowed an absurd number of passing yards over their last four games. Nearly 380 passing yards per game. Detroit has also allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last 6 weeks. Mayfield has gone over this number in four of his last five games.

Mike Evans over 64.5 receiving yards (Prizepicks)

Letâ€™s pair Mayfield with Mike Evans. Have to imagine a horrible Lions secondary is the BOOM spot for Evans after a few down games. Evans has 265 air yards in the last two weeks, but 70 actual yards. Regression is coming. Earned 10 targets last time he played the Lions with 127 air yards. The Lions rank 1st in air yards and second in ADOT faced this season. Evans has 70-plus yards in four of his last 8 games played.

Chris Godwin over 59.5 receiving yards (-120 ESPNBET)

The Lions have allowed most fantasy points to slot WRs since Week 9.

Last week, Chris Godwin caught 4 balls for 45 yards on 5 targets with a TD score (14% Target share). In the previous DET-TB matchup, Godwin led the team in receiving, with 6 receptions for 77 yards (7 targets, 19% Target share). Godwin has hit the over on his receiving projection in five of his last 6 games played.

Jameson Williams over 31.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Josh Reynolds also had a "revenge game" boost last week. 5 catches for 80 yards on 7 targets (27% Target share). Played well ahead of Jameson Williams coming off his injury while tying the Sun God in routes run. Williams was an utter failure yet again, catching just 2 balls for 19 yards (2 targets). Only ran three fewer routes than the other two WRs. I'd be wary of trusting Reynolds in back-to-back weeks even in a plus-matchup. Would likely go back to the over on Jamo at a suppressed number (31.5 receiving yards). Williams caught 2 passes for 53 yards and 1 TD in just his second game back from suspension, when facing Tampa Bay back in Week 6. He has 40 or more yards in 5 of his last 7 games played.

Rachaad White under 55.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

The Lions' defense is ELITE versus the run. They have not allowed RB to surpass 70 yards against them ALL SEASON. Fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs this season (60.5). Rachaad White has gone under 55.5 rushing yards in two of his last four games, both of which came in tougher matchups.

Josh Allen over 9.5 rushing attempts (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Josh Allen has been running wild as a mobile QB. He's gone over 10+ carries in three of his last six games. At Plus Money, I like the over on Allen's 9.5 rushing attempts prop (8.5 on FanDuel). His career average rushing attempts per game versus the Chiefs (10.3) is the highest against any opponent he has played more than once.

The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for the NFL Playoffs.

Robert Woods (+500/+2000) - The Ravens don't allow a lot of WR yards, but they bleed targets (2nd) and receptions (12th). They have also faced the most WR red-zone targets this season. Ergo, chances are a Texans WR finds the end zone this weekend. Nico Collins is the low-hanging fruit option, but note that Baltimore has done an excellent job stopping WRs from scoring in the red zone, despite all the RZ targets they have faced. Would imagine their defense hones in on Collins, forcing Stroud to look elsewhere. That leaves Robert Woods and John Metchie as the top secondary options. Woods has 11 red-zone targets this season, but 1 TD only. Metchie should see an expanded role with Noah Brown out, but heâ€™s never been a featured piece in the red-zone offense. Given that Woods leads all Texans WRs in snaps inside the red zone, he is the longshot anytime TD. The BettingPros Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tool agrees, giving this bet a +4% EV rating (third-highest on the week) with a 17% cover probability. If Woods canâ€™t go â€“ dealing with an injury â€“ Iâ€™d gladly pivot to Metchie (also on the injury report).

Rashod Bateman (+390/+1600) - The Texans have allowed the passing TDs this season (17) despite allowing the 10th-most passing yards. TD Regression is coming and I like that in the form of Bateman scoring a TD in this matchup. The former first-rounder will likely get away from the Derek Stingley Jr. shadow coverage; presuming he follows Zay Flowers. Note that the last time we saw Bateman play with the normal starters, he low-key led the Ravens with 6 targets, catching four for 54 yards. 27% target share while leading the team in routes run. Batemanâ€™s anytime TD prop is one of the highest EV bets per the BettingPros Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tool with an 18% cover probability. A 1st TD score is not out of the question, given how the Ravens lead the NFL in 1st TD scores.

Tucker Kraft (+500/+4000) â€“ The Packers tight ends have the highest EV ratings in the BettingPros Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tool this weekend. 20% cover probability. Tucker Kraft came up just short of a designed TD pass last week in the red zone. Kraft has played a team-high 98% of the red-zone snaps for the Packers offense the last two weeks. The 49ers finished with the 4th-most passes to the red zone this season while ranking 32nd in rushing red-zone carries faced. If GB is going to score inside the 20-yard line, itâ€™s going to be through the air. And donâ€™t overlook their chances of scoring first with how great their offense has been in the first half of games during the second half of this season. The Packers have scored first in each of their last five road games. Through the first 9 weeks of the season, the Packers were averaging an ABSYMAL 4.1 points per game in the first halves of games. From Week 10 onward these are their first half-point totals: 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27. Average of 16.3 points per game in the first half. No. 2 in the league.

Mike Evans (+110/+1100) - The Lions rank second in RZ touches and fourth in red-zone targets to WRs this season. 45% cover probability per the BettingPros Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tool. He has had AMPLE opportunities for long TDs the last two weeks.

Patrick Mahomes (+600/+2000) - Patrick Mahomes has STILL not scored yet this season. It's his first season that he has failed to score a TD during the regular season. Considering the lack of a supporting cast around the Chiefs QB, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do more on his own, as he often scrambles more in the postseason. In Week 16, he had a season-high 10 carries for 53 rushing yards. Last week, he came close to another rushing score on a red-zone rushing attempt. His last rushing TD in the playoffs? Against the Buffalo Bills. No player has more combined red-zone and attempts (14) than Mahomes does without a TD scored this season, per the FantasyPros 1st TD scorer report. The Chiefs could easily strike first given they have scored first at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL this season. The Bills have allowed 2 1st TD rushing scores to opposing QBs this season.

Mecole Hardman (+750/+2800) - No other KC player had more than 3 targets (Mecole Hardman) besides Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce in the Wildcard Round. Hardman had 1 catch for 3 yards. But he also earned 59 air yards (21%) after being used as a frequent downfield target. He saw three downfield targets. Hardman only played 34% of the snaps. 4th among all WRs. Justin Watson ranked second (64%), followed by Marquez Valdes-Scantling (41%). Hardman did run more routes than MVS.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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