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Erickson’s NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s NFL Super Wild Card Weekend player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 18 betting.

  • We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
  • Week 2 was a step back, going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
  • In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
  • All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
  • But Week 4 was rough, fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London, and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
  • Four weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
  • But in Week 5, we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert’s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall, with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
  • Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8), but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
  • Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
  • However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8, and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
  • Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday, OBJ!
  • Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
  • In Week 11, we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7, including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble, and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
  • Thanksgiving day, we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props, and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.
  • But the highlight of Week 12 was the official player props from last week’s article. Oh baby, did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI.
  • Week 13 brought some losses based on injuries, but we still came out in the green overall at 9-8. It was looking grim after Sunday, but a big game and anytime TD score from Evan Engram got us firmly in the winning column.
  • As for Week 14. It was a flat week. 9-9 straight up. But at least we hit on the Javonte Williams and Cade Otton anytime TDs.
  • Week 15…more of the same. 10-9. So far, no Christmas Gifts. The Ravens’ passing game underwhelming hurt us badly.
  • Week 16 was generous during the holiday season. 10-5 straight up on the 15 props. YTLSI.
  • Week 17 was flat at 8-7.
  • But that was NOT the case in Week 18. Note to self. Don’t bet on Week 18 player props in 2024. 7-6 overall on props, in a disappointing week.
  • Our overall record for Weeks 1-18 is 143-121-1 on official props (54%) this season. Heating up at the right time as the postseason props arrive.
  • New Year, New Me. Let’s dominate these postseason player props. Note that this is coming out earlier than normal, so I will go back and update with additional player props I like, along with any injury-related news items.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won’t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

Eighteen weeks into NFL action, and I can say I am fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let’s turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson’s Super Wild Card Weekend NFL Player Prop Bets

Devin Singletary over 63.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)

It’s Devin Singletary’s world, and we are just living in it. Well, it’s his backfield in Houston, at least. Singletary totaled 23 carries for 64 yards and one TD against the Colts, while Dameon Pierce didn’t log a single snap on offense. Singletary played 88% of the snaps and had three carries inside the 10-yard line.

I like the OVER on Singletary’s 59.5 rushing yards prop on PrizePicks this week. The Browns’ defense has been gashed on the road this season, allowing over 120 rushing yards per game. Although Singletary was held to just 44 yards the last time these teams played, he only had nine carries in a total blow-out loss. There was no C.J. Stroud in that game, either. Trust that in a tighter game, Singletary continues to feast as a rusher. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has Singletary projected for 73.4 rushing yards this weekend.

David Njoku over 54.5 receiving yards (-120 DraftKings)

This should be another big game for David Njoku. The Texans are allowing the 5th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (57.4). However, they have only allowed 5 receiving TDs. Regression is coming in terms of TDs allowed to tight ends. Sprinkle in some David Njoku anytime TD odds at +185.

The Browns’ tight end has been unlocked with Flacco as his QB. In Flacco’s five starts, Njoku has a 22% target share averaging nine targets per game and 17.1 expected points per game in half-point scoring. But even before Flacco got there, Njoku had been HEATING up. Weeks 7-17, Njoku ranked first in expected fantasy points per game at 16.8 among all tight ends.

Against Houston back in Week 16, Njoku went for six catches and 44 yards on nine targets. Love the MORE THAN on Njoku’s 54.5 receiving yards prop.

Jerome Ford under 41.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)

Take the under on Jerome Ford’s 41.5 rushing yards. Still in a committee that has three RBs being used between Ford, Kareem Hunt, and Pierre Strong. Ford has also gone UNDER 41.5 yards in more than half of his games with Flacco at QB. He was also held to just 25 yards the last time he faced the Texans in Week 16. Since Week 8, just three RBs have surpassed their rushing totals against Houston.

Mecole Hardman Jr. over 9.5 receiving yards (-120 ESPN BET)

The Chiefs rested anyone with a pulse on the offensive side of the ball in Week 18. Mecole Hardman, Justyn Ross and La’Mical Perine started. Hardman was heavily involved from the jump, seeing 11 targets (38% target share), catching six for 77 yards (83 air yards). Perhaps they have a bigger role for him in the normal offense. He played 100% of the snaps and finished second in weighted opportunity among all WRs in Week 18. Makes sense that after spending the start of the season with the New York Jets, the Chiefs look to get him more involved. Anything to get Marquez Valdes-Scantling fewer snaps (he was active but DNP).

In his last four games played before he was placed on IR in Week 11, Hardman had at least 10 receiving yards in all three games. Kadarius Toney also appears to not be 100% healthy, showing up on the injury report as limited to open the week.

If Hardman’s role does indeed expand, you can ladder bet his receiving yards at crazy long odds. Over 20.5 receiving yards is +200. 40 receiving yards is +600. 50 receiving yards is +1200 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mason Rudolph under 27.5 passing attempts (-120 DraftKings)

The weather in the Steelers-Bills matchup forecasts for less than favorable conditions conducive for passing games and overall scoring. AccuWeather is projecting a high of 24 degrees with 3.5 inches of snow and winds of 28 mph, including gusts of up to 50 mph. The “RealFeel” temperature for the game is zero degrees. Woof.

Mason Rudolph’s passing attempts at 27.5 seem like easy money, given he has not attempted more than 27 passes in any contest this season. Hardly think the Steelers want to establish the pass this weekend. This season, they rank 29th in pass attempts per game (29.8), posting a -6% pass rate over expectation. Last 3 weeks with Rudolph? -18% pass rate over expectation, averaging an NFL-low 23.7 pass attempts per game.

Makes sense to play it along with Najee Harris over 14.5 rushing attempts on BetMGM at -135 odds in same-game parlay action. Gone for 19-plus in 3 straight games.

Jaylen Warren over 3.5 receptions (+116 FanDuel)

The same goes for Jaylen Warren. Bad weather in a potential negative game script means dump-off passes to the 3rd-down back. Warren has 4-plus catches in five straight games.

Tony Pollard over 59.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)

Tony Pollard had 17 carries for 70 yards (4.1 average), one touchdown (5 red-zone touches), longest run of 12 yards on a 57% snap share. Led the backfield with 10 carries in the first half to Rico Dowdle’s solo carry.

Dallas will host Green Bay in the first round of the playoffs. The Packers’ defense has held up in back-to-back weeks against the Vikings/Bears. Dallas is a different animal. I think they might run wild against them.

Therefore, I am taking MORE than Pollard’s 57.5 rushing yards prop. Went over last week and in three of his last four home games. His BP projection has him FLYING over 57.5 yards at 65 projected rushing yards. Went for 100-plus yards last season against the Packers’ defense.

Jordan Love over 242.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)

Dallas is a tough place for the Packers to have to win a road game, but it won’t be for a lack of offensive firepower that GB falls short of the big upset.

Ergo, HAMMER the MORE THAN on Jordan Love’s passing yards prop this week at 232.5 passing yards. Gone for 255-plus yards in 7 of his last 9 games played. And in every game played in Dallas this season, the opposing offense has totaled at least 248 passing yards.

There’s also a chance that Christian Watson returns from his hamstring injury. The last time he faced the Cowboys? 4 catches for 107 yards and 3 TDs.

Puka Nacua over 73.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)
Cooper Kupp under 71.5 receiving yards (-115 ESPN BET)

The Lions have allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last five weeks (nearly 320 passing yards/game). They also rank LAST in yards to WRs in their last five games, allowing 228 yards per game to opposing wideouts.

Smells like a Puka Nacua OVER spot at 73.5 receiving yards. As a full-time player, he has gone over this in four of his last five games played, surpassing 80 yards in each contest. However, I will not be as bullish on his older teammate, Cooper Kupp. Only once all season has Nacua and Kupp both gone over their receiving yards prop the same week. Three of Cooper Kupp’s 40 games with 70-plus receiving yards have been accompanied by down Nacua games. The future is now, Kupp. And his name is Puka Nacua.

Kyren Williams under 19.5 rushing attempts (-108 FanDuel)

The Lions’ defense is ELITE versus the run. They have not allowed RB to surpass 70 yards against them ALL SEASON. Fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs this season (60.5). No RB they have faced has surpassed 20 carries against them all season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 88.5 receiving yards (-115 ESPNBET)
Jameson Williams over 36.5 receiving yards (-115 ESPNBET)

The Rams are also the 3rd-worst defense against slot WRs and are equally bleeding points to WRs.

From Weeks 14-17, the Rams have allowed the most fantasy points per game to WRs. (Lions are second). They flip-flop 1 and 2 in terms of allowing the most yardage.

Amon-Ra St. Brown. Come on down. He’s gone for 95 or more receiving yards in 6 of his 7 games played at home this season. No fewer than 77 receiving yards in any home game this season. He also has 90-plus receiving yards in 3 straight games.

The way that these defenses are beaten forecasts for a game that is heavy on passing yards and receiving numbers.

The highest +EV bet is on Lions WR Jameson Williams to go over his receiving yards prop set at 37.5 yards. Dan Campbell expects him to play after they missed him last week. He will be needed with tight end Sam LaPorta and WR/special teams ace Kalif Raymond likely out. He’s gone over 40 yards in three straight games. The Rams also play mostly zone coverage which JAMO has 17 of his 22 catches against this season.

David Montgomery under 54.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)

The Rams’ defense also has not allowed an RB to surpass 70 rushing yards since their Week 10 bye week. Only one RB they have faced since Week 6 has gone for 65 rushing yards or more.

Take the under on David Montgomery’s 55.5 rushing yards prop. Under in two of his last three games. His rushing attempts and overall touches have dropped in three straight games as the teams rely more on rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.

Chris Godwin over 55.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)

Mike Evans was the target leader in Week 18 with 8 looks, but he only caught 3 passes for 22 yards. However, he had a massive drop on what could have been a huge passing play. He will get a chance for redemption versus the Eagles in the playoffs. 117 air yards last week foreshadows him as a massive buy-low target. Philly has allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs this season.

Taking the over on Evans’ 66.5 receiving yards prop this week. Evans has 70-plus yards in four of his last 7 games played.

Same with going more than with Chris Godwin, based on how bad the Eagles’ defense is at defending the slot (most fantasy points allowed). More than 55.5 receiving yards is too easy. 51 or more yards in 5 straight games with target totals of 11, 12, 11, 5, and 8.

Also love the odds that Godwin scores in this game at +250 odds. On 16 red-zone targets this season, Godwin has scored two TDs. He’s the only WR with 1,000 receiving yards and fewer than three TDs this season. The Eagles rank 4th this season in most 1st receiving TDs allowed to WRs this season. Second-most receiving TDs allowed to WRs this season and third-highest passing TD rate faced.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for the NFL Playoffs. 

Patrick Mahomes (+430/+2000) – Patrick Mahomes has not scored yet this season. It’s his first season that he has failed to score a TD during the regular season. Considering the lack of a supporting cast around the Chiefs QB, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do more on his own, as he often scrambles more in the postseason. In Week 16, he had a season-high 10 carries for 53 rushing yards.  No player has more combined red-zone and attempts (13) than Mahomes does without a TD scored this season, per the FantasyPros 1st TD scorer report.

Mecole Hardman (+800/+2800) – Chiefs WR Richie James Jr. has the highest EV rating in the BettingPros Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tool. But as I alluded to above, I am buying Hardman’s big Week 18 performance to jump-start his usage in the postseason. With Jerick McKinnon on IR, I think Hardman slides into that gadget role around the goal line. For both Chiefs props, look for them in the 1st TD market. KC finished third this season in most 1st TDs scored. They finished second in 1st passing TDs. Miami has allowed more 1st passing TDs to WRs than any other position.

Dalton Kincaid (+360/+1400) – Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid also had a notable contribution with 84 receiving yards on seven catches (22% target share, 8 targets) in Week 18. Kincaid’s snaps remained low at 55% but ran a route on 71% of dropbacks. Usage has bounced back to 7-plus targets in back-to-back games. The Steelers have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to slot TEs this season. The Steelers have faced the 7th-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season, including the most (7) over the last five weeks. Pittsburgh has also allowed the 3rd-most 1st TD scores – 10 of which have come by passing TDs.  21% cover probability per the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Research Tool. Kincaid only has 1 TD score on eight red-zone targets this season. His 673 receiving yards, 90 targets and 73 catches are the most among any tight end with fewer than three TDs this season.

Leonard Fournette (+650/+2500) – Fournette (if active) gets red zone carries on a high-powered offense that will be playing in a very windy game. It’s as simple as that. Playoff Lenny is back. Last week, Leonard Fournette added 20 yards on 7 carries (1 red zone carry). He played 21% of the snaps.

Jake Ferguson (+185/+1100) – The Packers have faced the third-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season. 35% cover probability per the BettingPros Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tool. Dallas TEs have scored the 1st TD thrice this season. Tied with the Lions for the most in the NFL.

James Mitchell (+750/+2800) – Sam LaPorta is expected to miss the first round of the playoffs. Therefore, expect an expanded role from James Mitchell. He had one catch for 24 yards and finished 3rd in routes run in Week 18 after LaPorta got hurt. Also played 81% of the snaps and 100% of the snaps in the red zone. He is $2,800 on DraftKings this week versus the 29th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends. No team has allowed more receiving TDs to tight ends than the Rams this season (8) that remains in the postseason. Three have been the 1st TD in the game. Lions TEs have scored the 1st TD thrice this season. Tied with Dallas for the most in the NFL.

Puka Nacua (+125/+1100) – The Lions rank second in RZ touches and fourth in red-zone targets to WRs this season. The Lions also rank 7th in the NFL in red-zone touches faced by tight ends. If Tyler Higbee misses, take a dart throw on rookie Davis Allen’s anytime TD odds at +600.

Dallas Goedert (+245 /+1300) – Tampa Bay ranks 5th this season in most 1st receiving TDs allowed to WRs this season. Fourth in receiving yards allowed but just 16th in TDs allowed. Also, the second-most red zone targets allowed to tight ends (21). Only Kincaid and Tyler Conklin have scored fewer TDs this season than Goedert among tight ends with at least 80 targets.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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