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Erickson’s NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 10 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 10 betting.

  • We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
  • Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
  • In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
  • All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
  • But Week 4 was rough fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
  • 4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
  • But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert’s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
  • Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
  • Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
  • However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
  • Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday OBJ!
  • We are now up to 53-57-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green. And the boosts from the anytime TD bets have been a godsend.

Let’s keep it rolling fam.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won’t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

9 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let’s turn the obsession into a profit.

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Erickson’s Week 10 NFL Player Prop Bets

Joe Mixon under 68.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Joe Mixon has rushed for 68-plus yards twice in 2023. 75% of his game he has FLOWN under this rushing projection. The Texans are allowing the league’s third-lowest yards per carry (3.5) overall and just 3.3 yards per carry to RBs this season (77.3 per game). The projection has him listed for a meager 57.3 yards after he failed to hit 40 yards last week against a horrible Bills run defense. 16 carries per game at 3.3 ypc won’t get Mixon anywhere close to this rushing yardage total.

Austin Ekeler under 51.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Austin Ekeler has struggled to run the football this year. He has finished under 51.5 rushing yards in four straight games since returning from his injury. And Week 10 doesn’t seem to be much better. Lions are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (57.6) to opposing RBs. Only two RBs they have faced this year have surpassed 60 yards on the ground against them.

Jared Goff over 33.5 passing attempts (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Every QB the Chargers have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards prop. 5 of 7 have gone over their passing attempts prop. I like the overs for both on Jared Goff against a pass-funnel Los Angeles defense. He’s gone over 33 attempts in three straight games and is projected for 36 throws in Week 10. Like pairing it will the Sun God – of course – and Jameson Williams’s receiving yards prop at a meager 15.5 yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook).

Jalen Reagor under 21.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bet the under on Jalen Reagor’s receiving yards prop? You bet. Three straight unders when he has played the last few weeks. After an abysmal showing on Sunday, I’d be shocked if his snaps on offense were not reduced.

George Pickens under 3.5 receptions (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)

George Pickens will finish with UNDER 3.5 receptions in Week 10. Last week, he ended with just 2 receptions on 5 targets for -1 yards (17% Target share). Came close to scoring but was ruled out of bounds (2 red-zone targets). He remains tough to trust with Diontae Johnson the alpha target earner in the offense. Fantasy finishes with DJ in the lineup: WR51, WR19, WR45 and WR103. 17% target share averaging 3.25 catches per contest. The Packers are a tougher matchup for opposing WRs. 7th-best versus perimeter WRs this season and overall. Pickens owns the third-worst catch rate (53%) and the 6th-worst catchable target rate this season (67%). He is also bad against zone coverage. Per PFF, he ranks 65th among all WRs in fantasy points per route run versus zone, which GB runs at a top-10 rate this season. Take the under.

Jaylen Warren over 7.5 rushing attempts (-125 FanDuel Sportsbook)

It’s time to ride the Jaylen Warren train. Over on 7.5 rushing attempts against a defense that ranks third in run rate faced this season. Warren saw a season-high 11 carries last week as the team looks to get him more involved. He is projected for nine carries in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Christian Watson over 36.5 receiving yards  (-120 BetMGM)

Bet the over on Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop which is set at an egregiously low number of 36.5. The Steelers are allowing the league’s second-highest explosive pass play rate. Watson caught a deep ball last week and was the air yards leader but only drew 2 targets. He suffered an injury during the game but should be fine for Week 10. It is hard to argue with the potential blow-up spot he’s against a beatable Steelers secondary.

Rashid Shaheed over 30.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Rashid Shaheed leads the team in fantasy points per route run versus zone coverage per PFF. He’s their primary zone beater. Vikings run mostly zone coverage (top-10 rate). Vikings rank third in yards per game to opposing No. 3 WRs. 4th in targets. Also, in the last two games Shaheed has gone off. Road games in a dome after failing to post 30 yards receiving. Rinse and repeat. Ladder bet spot? You better believe it. Shaheed has either finished with under 35 yards or over 63 yards in his nine games played this season. Simply put, when he goes OVER, he goes WELL over. Shaheed is +340 for anytime TD in Week 10.

Lamar Jackson over 18.5 completions (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)

I want to call out Lamar Jackson’s completions prop at 18.5. Gone over in 6 of 9 games. He leads the NFL with a career-high 71.5% completion percentage.

Will Levis over 30.5 passing attempts (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This line has moved since the opening, but it’s still so good that I’ll still bet it at 30. 5 passing attempts. The Buccaneers are a pass-funnel defense facing 37.5 pass attempts per game, and the Titans have shown more willingness to throw the ball with Will Levis under center. 29 attempts in back-t0-back weeks, while going over on his pre-game passing prop.

DeAndre Hopkins over 4.5 receptions (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Pair the Levis prop with his No. 1 WR, DeAndre Hopkins. D-Hop only has 4 catches in back-to-back games, but he has commanded an elite 23.5% target share and 40% air yards share. The projection has him for 5.5 catches. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in yards allowed per game to WRs and 8th in targets per game to opposing No. 1s. Also as additional play, I like the over on Titans slot wide receiver, Kyle Philips. Over 2.5 receptions at plus money AND 19. 5 receiving yards. 4 catches in back-to-back games. Treylon Burks will likely miss the game with a concussion. Last two weeks, Philips boasts a 22% target rate per route run.

Cade Otton under 3.5 receptions (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Fade a fringe tight end at plus-money? Yes, please. The Titans have allowed just two opposing tight ends to catch four passes against them this season. Take the under.

Brock Purdy over 244.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I am backing overs in terms of the 49ers passing game against an elite run Jaguars defense. Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured). Brock Purdy has thrown for 244.5-plus passing yards in 62.5% of his game this season. Kyle Shanahan will know his offense’s best bet will be to attack the Jags through the air. Stack it up with the over on Brandon Aiyuk at 65.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook).

Trey McBride over 3.5 receptions (-160 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Trey McBride had 1 target and 1 catch for 12 yards in the first half of last week with Clayton Tune at QB. The second-year tight end ended with 3 for 22 on 5 targets (25% Target share). Ran a route on 63% of dropbacks while playing 69% of the snaps. Still showed strong target usage and he has a much better matchup versus the Falcons in Week 10. Falcons are allowing the most catches and second-most targets to TEs this season. Like McBride’s odds of scoring as well. +210 for anytime TD and 11-to-1 for the 1st TD score. Falcons have allowed 5 first TD scores through the air.

Bijan Robinson over 55.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

Aside from last week, the Cardinals had allowed a RB to rush for 59-plus yards in every single game. Bet the over on Bijan Robinson.

DK Metcalf over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)

9/9 WR1s have hit the over on their receiving yardage prop versus the Commanders. The DK Metcalf explosion game is coming. As bad as he has been, he’s gone over this number in 57% of his games, despite tough matchups and injuries. Conversely, I am strongly fading Tyler Lockett. The guy has been on the injury report all year with a hamstring injury. He’s gone over 59.5 receiving yards just twice this season (25%). Metcalf’s biggest totals have coincided with Lockett’s worst games this season.

Jakobi Meyers under 40.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

Jakobi Meyers was 2nd with 5 targets in Week 9 including a rushing TD. But he has yet to eclipse 40 yards in a game with Aidan O’Connell as his starting QB. Tough matchup versus the Jets. No.1 defense versus WRs this season. Take the under with targets eventually heading back toward Davante Adams.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 10. 

  • DK Metcalf (+145/+800) – See above. This is the eruption spot versus a defense that has allowed the second-most receiving TDs to WRs this season. Metcalf is tied for 4th in the NFL in red-zone targets but has not scored since Week 4.
  • Donald Parham Jr. (+410/+2500) – Lock in DPJ to score as the team’s No. 1 red-zone option. The Chargers have scored first in 7 of 8 games this season. Lions have allowed a TD to a tight end in nearly half their games this season. Parham narrowly missed on a TD score last week as Justin Herbert missed him in the end zone.
  • Demario Douglas (+230/+1300) â€“All. In. Saw 2 red-zone targets two weeks ago. Ranks second among all WRs in receiving yards without a TD (277). The Colts have allowed the 6th-most passing yards but just 19th in passing TDs. Regression is coming via the air. Mac Jones has the league’s second-highest passer rating in the red zone this season. 8 TDs and zero interceptions.
  • Jayden Reed (+550/+2500) – Stay away from the 1st TD score here – GB can’t score in the first half – nut sprinkle some anytime TDs at long-shot odds. The Steelers rank 4th in total yardage allowed to WRs but have allowed just 7 passing TDs. Reed is heavily used around the red zone (8 red-zone targets) and could score against an exploitable defense.
  • Tony Pollard (-150/+360) – If it doesn’t happen this week, it’s not happening. Pollard ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone touches. Giants have allowed the 1st TD score in 8 games played this season.
  • Davante Adams (+160/+1000) – Leads the NFL in red-zone targets but has not scored since Week 3. +240 Anytime TD, +1000 1st TD scorer. Odds shouldn’t be this long. The Raiders – despite how dysfunctional they have been on offense – have scored the 1st TD in 7 of their 9 games played. The Jets defense has allowed a 1st TD score in 7 of 8 games played.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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