Erickson’s NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 11 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 11 betting.

• We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
• Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
• In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
• All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
• But Week 4 was rough fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
• 4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
• But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert’s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
• Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
• Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
• However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
• Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday OBJ!
• Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
• We are now up to 65-63-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green. And the boosts from the anytime TD bets have been a godsend. Rashod Bateman came through for us on Thursday night.

Let’s keep it rolling fam.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won’t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

10 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let’s turn the obsession into a profit.

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Erickson’s Week 11 NFL Player Prop Bets

Darrell Henderson Jr. under 41.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Darrell Henderson Jr. is viewed as the Rams starting RB. But that might not be the case based on the usage when we saw the Rams last play in Week 9. In the first half, Henderson led the Rams backfield with 10 carries for 19 yards. Royce Freeman had 18 yards on 5 carries. Henderson had zero second-half carries (just 2 targets). While Freeman saw all 7. There’s enough of a split to confidently back the under against a defense that has held RBs in check almost all season, allowing fewer than 60 rushing yards to all but two RBs this season. Henderson has also FLOWN under this number in back-to-back games, failing to surpass 31 yards.

Matthew Stafford under 256.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Seattle’s pass defense has also improved dramatically since the start of the year, with their cornerbacks healthy on the outside. After allowing 300-plus passing yards in three straight games to open the year…they have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in five of their last six games. Bet the under on Matthew Stafford’s bloated 255.5 passing yards prop – a number he hasn’t hit in four straight games.

Tyler Higbee under 28.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

Tyler Higbee will also likely fall short of expectations. He’s gone over his projected receiving total once since Cooper Kupp has returned to the lineup.

Mike Evans over 55.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM)

The 49ers defense has allowed 60-plus receiving yards to 8 different WRs over the last 6 games. The over has hit in 7/9 of games for opposing No. 1 WRs facing the 49ers, including four straight games with 100 yards-plus allowed. Mike Evans has gone over 55.5 yards in 6 of 9 games played this season (67%), hitting the over in 3 of his last four. Projections have him slated for nearly 66 receiving yards. Makes sense to pair it with the Baker Mayfield prop set at 231.5 passing yards. He’s gone over in four straight games.

Both teams between SF/TB should face a lot of raw passing attempts, with both units facing top-5 pass rates on defense this season.

Cade Otton under 26.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bet the under on Cade Otton. The 49ers are allowing the second-fewest receiving yards per game to TEs (33.4).

Brock Purdy over 254.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Brock Purdy passing yardage prop has been HAMMERED toward the over since it opened at 237.5 passing yards on Prizepicks. I’ll be featuring more early lines from Prizepricks in the coming weeks so stay tuned for that. As for the prop at the current number, I still like the over – just acknowledge the value has been sapped since it moved. Tampa Bay is the ultimate pass funnel, and SF is not afraid to unleash Purdy’s arm when the matchup calls for it. 8/9 QBs to play a full game versus Tampa Bay have gone OVER their passing yardage projection. I think my favorite way to play this prop is a single-game parlay, where I pair Purdy at 200-plus yards with Brandon Aiyuk OVER 67.5 receiving yards. Again, be hammered to the over since it opened at 58.5 But that doesn’t mean it’s wrong if it hits, considering the Buccaneers have allowed the 4th-most receiving yards per game to WRs this season. Following a game with 60 or fewer yards, Aiyuk has gone over 100 yards in 3 of his last four games. Ladder bet? I think that’s they play with Aiyuk as is betting on him with an anytime TD (+160) or 1st TD prop. SF ranks third in 1st TD scored this season (5 by passing TDs). The Buccaneers rank second in most first TDs allowed (4 by passing TDs to WRs).

Bryce Young over 10.5 rushing yards/over 2.5 rushing attempts (-110 BetMGM)

I am going straight to Bryce Young’s rushing totals. He’s gone over in three straight games, and the fierce Dallas pass rush foreshadows more scrambles coming in the rookie’s future. 7 of the 9 QBs Dallas has faced this season have gone over their projected rushing totals. They are allowing on average 27.3 rushing yards per game to QBs and the second-most attempts (5.8). The Cowboys play man coverage at a top-3 rate, which invites more QB runs. If you want to max your payout, bet the over on Young’ rushing attempts as well which is set egregiously low at 2.5 attempts at plus money on DraftKings Sportsbook. He has 3-plus attempts in three straight games. Easy over.

Dalton Schultz under 4.5 receptions/50.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)

This number is too high for a tight end who doesn’t create his yards after the catch. He has gone over the in four of his last 5 games, but the matchup against Arizona does not project for him to continue his hot streak of play. Arizona has allowed one tight end to surpass 50 receiving yards this season. They have allowed just 38 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. With Nico Collins also returning, I’d suspect that Schultz doesn’t see nearly the same volume either. Ergo, I also love the under on Schultz’s receptions prop at 4.5. Another number that is way too high. He has surpassed this number twice in nine games played. Arizona is allowing just 3.7 catches per game to opposing team tight ends. Only two tight ends they have played this season have finished with 5-plus catches.

Jordan Love over 226.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

We can pile into the yardage totals for Jordan Love. Every QB the Chargers have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards prop. Jordan Love has gone over 226.5 passing yards in three straight games and all four of his home games this season.

Luke Musgrave over 26.5 receiving yards (-120 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Pair the Love passing yards over with Luke Musgrave. The Chargers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season (68.3). Musgrave has gone over this number in four of his last five healthy games played.

Michael Mayer over 17.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)

The Dolphins have allowed 20-plus receiving yards to 11 different tight ends this season, at an average of 56.6 yards per game (11th). Last week, Mayer, with an 88% snap count, caught 3 passes for 19 yards, including a touchdown (20% Target share on 5 targets). Ran a route on 69% of the dropbacks. Since Week 5, Mayer has gone over 18 yards in four of six games, including two of the last three since the team fired HC Josh McDaniels.

Najee Harris under 42.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

For the props market, the plummeting total tells you all you need to know. Bet the Steelers unders. Najee Harris was held to 43 rushing yards on 10 carries the last time these two teams played each other. But that was also before Jaylen Warren started taking a larger chunk of the rushing share. In the 2nd half of last week’s game, Warren out-carried Harris 9 to 5. Warren played a season-high 51% snap share.

In the 5 home games Cleveland has played, they have allowed an average of 35 rushing yards per game to opposing No. 1 RBs.

Jerome Ford over 49.5 rushing yards (-120 BetMGM)

The only over I like is Jerome Ford’s rushing yardage. The Steelers have allowed 60-plus rushing yards to 5 different RBs over the last four games. Ford led the ground game last week with 17 carries for 107 yards, averaging an impressive 6.3 yards per carry with his longest run being 28 yards against a strong Ravens run defense. He earned 64% of the snaps. It was the first time Ford was efficient although it was somewhat bloated by a 28-yard run.

I’d bet the Browns feature A LOT of the ground game with a rookie QB under center.

Justin Fields over 28.5 passing attempts (-110 BetMGM)

With the total so high in DET/CHI, I love attacking some player prop overs. Justin Fields should FLY over 28.5 pass attempts. Gone over in all but one of his healthy games played this season. The Lions are facing on average 35 passing attempts per game.

Pair it with D.J. Moore over 63.5 receiving yards and Darnell Mooney over 26.5 receiving yards correlated player props. Moore has gone under every single week without Justin Fields. He’s due for a bounce-back versus the Lions, who have allowed 8/9 WR1s to go OVER their projected receiving props.

I also love Mooney in this spot as the Bears’ primary slot receiver. Detroit is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season.

The FantasyPros Week 11 Primer loves the Bears WRs in this matchup.

Will Levis over 212.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured). The Jaguars’ defense ranks third in pass rate faced on defense. The Jaguars are also allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing perimeter WRs. Will Levis OVER 212.5 passing yards- a number he has hit in 2 of his last three games. And he would have easily hit this last week if he had connected on just one more of his 8 passes of 20-plus air yards.

Correlate it with the over on DeAndre Hopkins at 56.5 receiving yards.

Gabe Davis under 2.5 receptions (+115 BetMGM)

Death, taxes and Gabe Davis under versus the Jets. The Bills inconsistent WR has 2-plus catches in just 50% of his games played this season, but he’s gone over that number once in his last four games. The team is involving Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid more in the offense, leaving scraps for Davis. He was held to just 2 catches against the Jets back in Week 1 and averaged 2.5 catches against the Jets in two games in 2022. Considering the Jets rank 3rd in the fewest catches allowed to opposing WRs per game, I’ll easily back the under at plus money on duck hands Gabe Davis.

Javonte Williams under 68.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Juggernaut Javonte Williams has been on a heater, but I think he cools off against the Vikings’ defense. Only one RB they have faced all season has gone over 65 yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2. Over their 5-game win streak, only one RB has surpassed their projected rushing total against Minnesota. Take the under.

DeVonta Smith over 54.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

I think the move on Monday Night Football is to attack DeVonta Smith  OVERs. The books have yet to adjust their numbers in the wake of the Dallas Goedert injury. I expect him to see an uptick in receiving usage as a result.

Last season after DG got hurt, Smith went on a tear posting 8 of 10 games played with 60-plus receiving yards.

D’Andre Swift over 13.5 carries (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

As I noted in the Week 11 BettingPros Primer, the Chiefs’ weakness on defense is against the run. 20th in rush defense DVOA.

I think we will see a heavy run game plan by the Eagles to expose the Chiefs’ weaker run defense. They have shown the ability to run the ball at times this season, and there’s no better time to unleash D’Andre Swift fresh off a bye week

Since Week 2 after he took over the starting RB1 role, Swift has failed to hit 13.5 carries in just one game this season.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 11. 

• Darnell Mooney (+470/+3100) – 3rd in receiving yards with just 1 TD score. Zero TDs on 4 red-zone targets this season. Lions allowing 4th-most receiving TDs to WRs this season and have faced the second-most RZ targets to WRs. Mooney hasn’t scored since Week 1. The Lions rank 31st in DVOA against No. 2 WRs this season. Love Mooney in all facets this week for betting, TD props and DFS.
• DK Metcalf (+155/+950) – Metcalf is tied for 3rd in the NFL in red-zone targets but has not scored since Week 4. He also scored against the Rams back in Week 1. Metcalf has 3 TDs under expectation this season. And if I want to dive DEEP. Seahawks tight end, Colby Parkinson. Leads the Seahawks tight end carousel in red-zone targets and red-zone snaps. The Rams defense has allowed the third-most receiving TDs to tight ends this season. +700 anytime TD. +3000 for the first TD. The Rams have allowed a 1st TD score a tight end twice this season.
• Donald Parham Jr. (+440/+2200) – Lock in DPJ to score as the team’s No. 1 red-zone option with Gerald Everett extremely banged up. The Chargers have scored first in 7 of 9 games this season and the Packers are one of the worst-scoring offenses in the first halves of games. LAC is going to strike first – love the first-half spread for LA this week – and I think it will be with a DPJ TD. He is our first TD king.
• Tony Pollard (-115/+490) – I know I said last week, that if it doesn’t happen this week, it’s not happening. But he came so CLOSE to scoring again last week. So do as I say, not as I do. Tony Pollard ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone touches. He hasn’t scored since Week 2. Regression is going to happen, and I think it could be in a MASSIVE way versus the Panthers. They have allowed the NFL’s third-highest rushing TD rate and ranks 32nd in red-zone defense. No team has allowed more first rushing TDs scores this season than the Panthers (5). Not only do I recommend the Pollard first TD bet, but I think we could see the regression BLOW-UP game happen at once. +2000 to 3+TDs.
• Davante Adams (+1800/+215) – Tied for the lead of the NFL in red-zone targets but has not scored since Week 3. Odds shouldn’t be this long. The Raiders – despite how dysfunctional they have been on offense – have scored the 1st TD in 8 of their 9 games played. The Miami defense has allowed a 1st TD score in 6 of 9 games played. They also have the league’s 5th-worst red-zone defense. I’ll also say the at 10-1 odds I think throwing a few bucks on Josh Jacobs’ 1st TD is enticing as well.
• Tommy Tremble – (+650/+4100) Tremble is still undervalued by the market. Playing the most snaps as the TE1 on the offense. Dallas has allowed the second-most receiving TDs to tight ends this season. Tremble has scored in 2 of his last 5 games. Hayden Hurst is likely to miss the game with a concussion, and Panthers No. 3 tight end, Stephen Sullivan is also hurt.
• Daniel Bellinger (+800/+3100) – He plays all the snaps for the Giants and the Commanders’ defense is horrible. Especially against tight ends. They are allowing the league’s most RZ touches and targets to the position. If Big Blue can get into the red zone, Bellinger could be the top option to hit paydirt.
• T.J. Hockenson (+295/+1500) – Easily my favorite bet for Sunday Night. Odds make zero sense. Denver is the worst defense this season in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Hockenson has 27 targets over the last 2 weeks with Josh Dobbs at QB, and Justin Jefferson is not expected to return. Great value on both the anytime TD and 1st TD scoring market.
• Mecole Hardman Jr. (+1000/+3900) – He’s been back on the roster for a few weeks and saw a season-high in targets (3) back in Week 9.  He scored four red-zone TDs in 8 games last season. KC has scored first in 7 games of 9 games this year. The Eagles are also allowing the most receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs.

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