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Erickson’s NFL Week 12 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 12 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 12 betting.

  • We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
  • Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
  • In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
  • All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
  • But Week 4 was rough fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
  • 4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
  • But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert’s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
  • Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
  • Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
  • However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
  • Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday OBJ!
  • Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
  • In Week 11 we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7 including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
  • Thanksgiving day we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.

Let’s keep it rolling fam.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won’t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

11 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let’s turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson’s Week 12 NFL Player Prop Bets

Derrick Henry over 69.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

The Titans play much better at home where their offense has not only scored points but posted monster yardage totals. The Titans have averaged over 150 rushing yards per game at home this season (3rd). Derrick Henry is NOTORIOUS for steamrolling defenses in late November/early December. He draws the Panthers’ atrocious run defense in Week 12.

Carolina boasts the league’s worst run defense in DVOA. The Panthers red-zone defense ranks 31st in the NFL, with them allowing the league’s fourth-highest rushing TD percentage. They have also faced the highest rushing rate in the NFL.

Take all the Derrick Henry rushing props and his TD props at +105 anytime TD and +450 first TD score.

Will Levis under 28.5 pass attempts (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

But also take the unders on Will Levis. 9 of 10 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season. Carolina is facing the second-fewest pass attempts per game this season (29.4).

David Njoku OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Love the over at 38.5 receiving yards. Because David Njoku has emerged as Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s favorite target. Last week, Njoku was heavily targeted, catching 7 passes for 56 yards on 15 targets! (37% Target share). In the rookie’s two starts, Njoku has a 28% target share, 22 targets, 13 catches and 102 receiving yards.

Njoku is a MUST-START in fantasy football next against Denver, a team that is BLEEDING production to tight ends this season. Most points allowed to TEs this season. 4th in catches, 4th in catch rate and first in receiving yards (72/game).

Russell Wilson under 198.5 passing yards (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Russell Wilson has hit over 200 yards once in his last 6 games played.  The Browns defense has allowed the fewest passing yards per game to opposing QBs this season at 166.5. Easy under.

Kenny Pickett over 192.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

There’s hope at the end of the tunnel with the team’s decision to move on from ex-offensive coordinator Matt Canada. After a 45-game streak of zero games with 400 yards on offense, we could see the Steelers’ offense finally boom against a vulnerable defense. Note the most points scored last year in any of Kenny Pickett’s starts (30) came against the Bengals.

The Bengals have allowed the most explosive plays on defense (highest average depth of target faced) this season including 50-plus receiving yards to 8 different opposing WRs over the last five games. The Bengals are one of the worst defenses versus tight ends, allowing 5.8 catches and 64 receiving yards per game to the position.

I think we could easily see Pickett SOAR over his 192.5 passing yards prop – a number he hit in five of six games before his injury in Week 8. The Bengals defense has allowed over 200 passing yards to all but 2 QBs they have faced this season (80%).

And I think Pickett takes a bunch of his skill players with him.

Think there’s a strong same-game parlay value with Pickett paired with his receivers and their egregiously player props. Diontae Johnson’s number is at 53.5 and George Pickens is at 44.5 receiving yards. The Pickens one I like the most, based on how often he is used downfield.

Jaylen Warren over 48.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

The Bengals defense cannot stop the run. 30th in run defense DVOA.

Take the over on Jaylen Warren’s rushing yardage prop. Gone over this number in three straight games.

Warren led the Steelers with an impressive 129 rushing yards and a touchdown on just nine carries, averaging a remarkable 14.3 yards per carry in Week 11. His longest run was a notable 74-yarder, and he caught all 3 passes for 16 yards on 3 targets (12% Target share). Najee Harris contributed just 35 yards on 12 carries. 2 targets. 5 carries in the first half.

Harris saw his snaps bounce back to 57% versus Warren’s 45%. But I’d pay less attention to the snaps when Warren would have played MORE had he not been ripping off chunk gains left and right. With the firing of Matt Canada, in favor of the RB coach taking over as the new offensive coordinator, I expect Warren’s touches to increase as the team’s No. 1 explosive playmaker.

Matthew Stafford UNDER 235.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

For props, bet the under on Matthew Stafford’s bloated passing yards prop – a number he hasn’t hit in five straight games. Cooper Kupp probably won’t play and Puka Nacua is banged up. Kyren Williams’ return also makes it less likely the Rams dial up a heavy passing attack.

Kyren Williams OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kyren Williams is coming off the IR, but I’d bet he will get back to his typical workload. Take the over on his suppressed rushing yards prop. Only 1 week have the Cardinals NOT allowed an RB to rush for 59-plus yards against them this season.

Josh Downs over 3.5 receptions (-160 BetMGM)

Take the over on Josh Downs’ receptions prop at 3.5 catches. The only reason he has been UNDER this number for the last two weeks is that he has been battling a knee injury. Weeks 2-8, he was over this prop in 6/7 games.

Tyler Allgeier UNDER 42.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tyler Allgeier contributed just 31 yards on 9 carries, while also seeing four red-zone carries before the Falcons’ bye week. But he also played a lower snap share of the season at just 27%. Cordarrelle Patterson out-snapped him (31%) for the first time all season.

If this trend of usage carries over into Week 12, he won’t see enough volume to hit 42.5 rushing yards – a number he has failed to hit in three straight games and in six of his last 8 games played.

Saquon Barkley under 73.5 rushing yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

With the game total likely going under – unless we get short fields created by turnovers – you’ll want to mix in some player prop unders as well. Giants RB Saquon Barkley was in negative yardage in the 1st half of last week’s game. 6 carries for -2 yards.

The Patriots are only allowing 80 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, with just two individuals hitting 80 yards – in games where the defense allowed 30 points on defense. That will not be the case on Sunday.

New England’s defense also ranks second in the NFL in the fewest yards per carry allowed to opposing RBs (3.5).

Evan Engram over 42.5 receiving yards (-135 BetMGM)

The Texans allow the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (63). Evan Engram has been under his prop in the last 2 weeks, but it was against two of the tougher tight end matchups. He went for 67 yards the last time he faced Houston as the team’s leading receiver with 7 catches on 8 targets. Also saw 6 targets last week.

DeVonta Smith over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

D’Andre Swift over 2.5 receptions (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I think the move is to rinse and repeat what we did last week. Attack DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift OVERs. The books have yet to fully adjust their numbers in the wake of the Dallas Goedert injury. I expect both guys to see an uptick in receiving usage as a result as we saw last week versus the Chiefs.

Swift caught 3 receptions for 31 yards, with a long of 20 yards. Smith led the Eagles receivers with 6 receptions on 8 targets (38% Target share), 99 yards, with a long catch of 41 yards

Last season after DG got hurt, Smith went on a tear posting 8 of 10 games played with 60-plus receiving yards. He’s on a new streak now.

Meanwhile Swift has at least 2 receptions in 7 straight games. With Philly potentially facing a negative game script in a potential back-and-forth contest like last week, I like Swift to get over 2-plus catches AGAIN with the vacated target share left by Goedert.

This game could be a prime spot for some same-game parlay madness.

Josh Jacobs over 63.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Take the over on Josh Jacobs’ rushing yards prop set at 62.5 yards. The last four RBs the Chiefs have played have gone over 75 rushing yards. His projection is for a whopping 72.5 rushing yards this week. He’s gone over in 2 of his last three games since the team fired Josh McDaniels. He’s also averaged 78 rushing yards per game in Aidan O’Connell’s 4 starts this season.

Aidan O’Connell under 199.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Bet the under on Aidan O’Connell’s passing yardage prop. 9/10 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected total.

Lamar Jackson OVER 19.5 pass completions (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Every QB the Chargers have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards prop. Every QB they have faced has gone over 20 completions against them as they have allowed the most completions per game on defense this season at 26.5 per game.

Projections have Jackson for nearly 22 completions in this contest. Love the Ravens QB in this prop to go over his 232.5-yardage prop.

Isaiah Likely OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Pair the Jackson passing yards prop with Isaiah Likely set at a meager 28.5 receiving yards. The Chargers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season (67.5).

Zay Flowers over 61.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
LA has also allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs this season. Back to the Zay Flowers OVERs that we got robbed of last week due to a bogus penalty.

Even so Flowers, with a 98% snap count, contributed 43 yards on 3 receptions. The team is going to have to lean on their talented rookie more than ever without Mark Andrews the rest of the way. Back in Week 1, Flowers commanded 10 targets, catching 9 for 78 yards.

Ty Chandler OVER 1.5 receptions (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Last week versus the Broncos, Alexander Mattison carried the ball 18 times, gaining 81 yards and averaging 4.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 15 yards. He also lost a fumble.

Ty Chandler also made a significant impact, rushing for 73 yards on 10 carries, including a long run of 31 yards. He had a massive rush on a fake punt in the 4th quarter.

Snaps were 65% for Mattison and 31% for Chandler. First-half carries were 6 for Chandler and 10 for Mattison.

Chandler caught 4 passes for 37 yards, Mattison was targeted twice but ended with negative yardage on his one reception. Mattison ran the most routes, but Chandler drew more targets (4 vs. 2). Mattison also dominated the red-zone carries with 5 attempts to Chandler’s 1.

The Bears’ biggest weakness is against pass-catching RBs, hence my lean toward Chandler and the OVER on his receiving yardage props. It’s a great matchup through the air for the RBs.

Alexander Mattison under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Bears have one of the league’s best run defenses allowing just 64 yards per game to opposing backs at a league-low 3.4 yards per carry. Mattison was limited to just 44 rushing yards the last time he faced the Bears, and it took him 18 carries to get there. With him splitting more time with the more explosive Ty Chandler, he won’t see the requisite volume to hit the over in this matchup.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 12. 

Demario Douglas (+330/+1200) â€“ Regression is coming. The rookie WR has the most receiving yards this season (361) without a TD score. The Giants rank 2nd in red-zone targets allowed to WRs and in red-zone touches to WRs. Douglas’ expected TDs this season are 1.9.

Nico Collins (+190/+1200) – In Week 11, Nico Collins contributed 65 yards on 7 receptions from 11 targets (Team-high 29% Target share, 88 air yards). He didn’t score, but C.J. Stroud was looking at him near paydirt as he commanded 4 red-zone targets. Despite missing one game, Collins also leads the Texans in targets inside the 10-yard line. Like his longer odds to score versus the Jaguars, who have allowed the 6th-highest passing TD rate this season.

Pat Freiermuth (+400/+1600) – Pat Freiermuth added 7 yards on his sole reception in his first game back. He played just 53% of the snaps in his return from IR. Expect his snaps to grow and his usage to increase in the red zone in a plus matchup. The Bengals are one of the worst defenses versus tight ends, allowing 5.8 catches and 64 receiving yards per game to the position. The Steelers tight end already has two TDs this season in just 5 games played.

David Njoku (+400/+1200) – See above for the great matchup on Njoku. Note that he dropped an easy TD catch last week. Njoku is tied for the 3rd-most tight end red-zone targets this season but only has two TDs. His expected TDs are 3.7.

Isiah Likely (+320/+1800) – Think this is just a misprice. Mark Andrews was the red-zone GUY for Lamar Jackson – 2nd among all TEs in red-zone targets – and we could see Likely emerge in that spot. When Likely has played over 50% of the snaps –5 games – he has scored in twice of them. Like his 1st TD odds a ton in this prime time spot. Baltimore has scored the first TD in 90% of their games this season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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