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Erickson’s NFL Week 13 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 13 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 12 betting.

  • We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
  • Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
  • In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
  • All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
  • But Week 4 was rough fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
  • 4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
  • But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert’s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
  • Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
  • Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
  • However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
  • Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday OBJ!
  • Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
  • In Week 11 we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7 including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
  • Thanksgiving day we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.
  • But the highlight of Week 12, was the official player props from last week’s article. Oh baby did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI. We are now up to 91-77-1 on official props (54%) this season. Getting hot at the right time.

Let’s keep it rolling fam.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won’t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

12 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let’s turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson’s Week 13 NFL Player Prop Bets

Derrick Henry over 59.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Titans have averaged over 136 rushing yards per game at home this season (10th). The Colts run defense has been gashed since they lost Grover Stewart to a 6-game suspension. Since Week 7 they have faced 5 RBs who have all gone OVER their projected rushing totals. The last two have gone for 88-plus rushing yards.

Ride the Big Dog, Derrick Henry, for another week. Henry is NOTORIOUS for steamrolling defenses in early December. 5.5 career yards per carry in December for Henry – the highest mark in any month. He’s gone over this number in every single home game for the Titans this season. Ride Henry and the Titans as home underdogs.

Will Levis under 19.5 completions (-100 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Only 5 of 10 QBs to face the Colts have gone over their completions prop. 6 of the 7 last QBs they have faced have gone under, with only one surpassing 20 completions. Will Levis has completed over 19 passes in just one of his 5 starts this season in a game where he attempted 39 passes. His pass attempts prop this week is 31.5. That projection tells you all you need to know. Great correlation play with the Derrick Henry rushing yardage, and you can mix in several of the Colts WRs over against the bad Titans secondary for some optimal same-game parlay action.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 3.5 receptions (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Chargers are allowing the 2nd-most targets and 3rd-most receptions to RBs (6.4) this season. Sometimes it can be this simple. Also note that in Bailey Zappe’s games played in 2022, Stevenson averaged 4.5 catches per game, surpassing 3 catches in all but one of the four contests.

Joshua Kelley under 18.5 rushing yards (Prizepicks)

I’d opt for less than 18.5 rushing yards for Joshua Kelley in Week 13 versus the Patriots. Their defense is stout against RBs allowing the league’s second-lowest yards per carry (3.5). Kelley has also not surpassed more than 18 rushing yards in four straight games averaging just 4.2 carries per game.

I also like the under on Austin Ekeler at 51.5 rushing yards (53.5 on Prizepicks), given his sluggish play the last few games,  Ekeler has surpassed 51.5 rushing yards only twice since returning from injury in Week 6 (29% hit rate).

Kenny Pickett over 194.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kenny Pickett has gone over his passing yards prop in all but one game before his injury. And he hit the over last week after the team fired Matt Canada. Arizona is allowing nearly 240 passing yards per game. Correlate with all his pass-catchers for a massive payout. Arizona is allowing the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs this season. Diontae Johnson over 47.5 receiving yards, George Pickens over 43.5 receiving yards.

Bijan Robinson over 58.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

I teased some same-game parlay action in Jets-Falcons in my early Prizepicks article this week.

Here’s what I am looking at. Desmond Ridder under his passing yards. Fully expecting the Falcons – on the road – to hide Ridder and unleash Bijan Robinson against the Jets. New York is a run funnel.

The Jets defense is facing the league’s LOWEST pass play rate at 51%. Meanwhile, the Falcons want to run no matter what. Last week, the Falcons posted a pass rate over expectation of -16%. Ridder attempted just 21 passes.

The Jets are weaker against the run, allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game at over 100 yards to opposing RBs. Bijan Robinson’s usage has been on an upward trajectory, and he’s gone over 90 yards in back-to-back games. He will continue to roll against the run-funnel Jets defense.

Curtis Samuel over 3.5 receptions (-132 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Dolphins are bad against slot receivers. Per the FantasyPros Week 13 Primer, Miami has allowed the seventh-most receiving touchdowns (tied) and the 12th-highest passer rating to slot receivers this season. Samuel will run about 73% of his routes against Kader Kohou (84.6% catch rate and 129.8 passer rating). Take the over on his receptions prop. He caught 9 balls on 12 targets last week. And before he got injured in Week 10, he was on a streak of 6 games with 4-plus receptions. Easy over here.

Russell Wilson under 223.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Five of the Broncos’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.

But the defensive improvements have come at the cost of the offense that has turned Russell Wilson into an ultra-conservative game manager. The team has totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in six of 7 games.

Bryce Young over 32.5 passing attempts (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I’d like to think that Bryce Young can have some success against a weak secondary, specifically with how bad their defense is defending third downs.

This is an overall bizarre matchup with two teams “strengths” not matching the weaknesses of their opponents. This raises the question of whether or not either team will shake it’s own identity to expose a favorable matchup.

The Buccaneers have been pass-happy all year – but that has been more related to the matchup CALLING for pass-heavy game scripts. Their season-long pass rate over expectation is 0%.

But last week, it was -6% against a weaker Colts run defense. 5th-highest rush rate on early downs among teams in Week 12.

Carolina had +5% pass rate over expectation with Thomas Brown calling plays from Weeks 8-10. 4th-highest pass play rate on early downs at 64%. Young had 31 or more pass attempts in each of the three games. He’s gone over that number in 70% of his games.

The last 2 weeks when Reich took back play calling? -9% PROE.

Weeks 1-7 before he gave up play calling the first time: -3% PROE. 49% pass play rate on early downs under neutral game script conditions.

Based on these findings, I’m confident both teams will attack their defense’s weaknesses, even if it takes them out of what they have traditionally done this season.

That means we should see a heavy run-game approach from the Buccaneers and a pass-heavy approach from the Panthers. Tampa Bay is the ultimate pass funnel, so we should see Bryce Young chuck the ball.

10/11 QBs to play a full game versus Tampa Bay have gone OVER their passing yardage projection. 8/10 have gone over their pass attempts projection.

Take over Bryce Young’s passing yardage totals at 31.5 pass attempts. Been under this number just thrice this season.

Baker Mayfield under 233.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Correlate with the over on Rachaad White’s 57.7 rushing yards prop. Also, add in the Baker Mayfield UNDER his passing yardage prop.

9 of 10 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season. I prefer the yards versus both the completions and attempts for Mayfield (although the Draft Prop Cheat Sheet likes all the unders).

Miles Sanders under 8.5 rushing attempts (-102 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Take all the Miles Sanders unders you can find. He was signed as a veteran free agent by the coaching regime that just got canned. There’s a chance he is barely used in the wake of new coaches taking over. And when Thomas Brown (current play caller) was calling plays from Weeks 8-10, Sanders had rushing attempt totals of 2, 6 and 2. The only way this beats us, is if Sanders is made a straight healthy scratch before kickoff.

Lock of the week.

Cade Otton under 3.5 receptions (-130 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Panthers are allowing the second-fewest receptions to tight ends this season (3.6 per game).

Brandon Aiyuk over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

I love the player props in this game that should be a shootout. Again, these two defenses rank first and second respectively in pass play rate faced on defense. Buckle up.

Brandon Aiyuk made significant contributions with 50 receiving yards, including a 28-yard touchdown on 4 targets on Thanksgiving. Aiyuk’s uber efficiency allows him to be a fantasy star even when the volume is coming his way. Behind CMC, he’s by far the best fantasy asset on the 49ers. And the schedule is juicy for him to have some epic spike weeks down the stretch. You better take his receiving yards more than. Prizepicks has him at an egregious 60 yards earlier this week. And its’ barely moved.

But after games in which he totaled 60 or fewer yards, Aiyuk has posted no less than 76 receiving yards the following week. Projections have him close to 75 yards against the Eagles defense that ranks bottom-5 in yards per game allowed to WRs. Ladder bet? Might be.

Correlate Aiyuk with Brock Purdy with MORE than 250.5 passing yards (line varies by sportsbook). The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 255.7 while facing the NFL’s highest pass rate. Extra time to prepare for the Eagles overrated defense will have the 49ers aerial attack at full throttle.

And for a fatter pay day? Go for the anytime TD (+180) or 1st TD score for Aiyuk (+1200). The 49ers have scored first in 9 of 11 games this season. No team has allowed more receiving TDs to WRs this season than the Eagles defense. The Anytime TD tool on BettingPros also likes the value on the Aiyuk TD prop.

Matthew Stafford under 232.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)

For props: This one comes courtesy of the Prizepicks Cheat Sheet. I mentioned the Matthew Stafford less than on his passing yards last week, and it came through with flying colors. Take less than Stafford’s bloated passing yards prop at 239.5 passing yards – a number he hasn’t hit in six straight games. The Browns defense ranks first in fewest passing yards allowed per game this season at 142 yards…Even with the defensive injuries, I think Stafford goes under this number.

Tyler Higbee under 26.5 receiving yards (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tyler Higbee has gone over this number just twice in 7 games since Cooper Kupp returned from injury to start the season. The Browns defense is allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends this season at just 20.6.

Christian Watson under 3.5 receptions (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Do not be a prisoner of the moment. Christian Watson has one game this season (last week) with 4-plus catches. This 3.5 line is way too high for a WR with a 12.5% over hit rate on his receptions prop. KC is also allowing the league’s second-lowest completion rate to WRs (55.6%) and the 7th-fewest catches overall.

Love spreads the ball too much between all his receivers to be confident enough to back the over on Watson. Yardage he can get there on one ball. But for him to catch 4 balls, he must be peppered with more targets. And the downfield looks he gets tend to not translate into many receptions.

Last week was the perfect spot for him, and he delivered on the splash play for the first time all year. But as alluded to the Chiefs’ defense will be tougher for him to play against, especially with Love’s tendency to spread the targets to all his receivers.

Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions (+105 BetMGM)

Evan Engram had 5 receptions from 8 targets with a Team-high 22% target share in Week 12 contributing 49 yards. He remains steady as they come, but still has not scored based on his ugly red-zone role. That hurts in fantasy, but not for hitting his projected betting number. Engram came through with MORE than in this last matchup, so let’s go right back to him.

Especially in Week 13 against the Bengals, who just got shredded by the Steelers’ tight ends. More than 42.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks for Engram in Week 13. Cincy is allowing the second-most receiving yards and second-most receptions to tight ends this season.

Bet the over on his 4.5 receptions at plus money. He’s hit the over on 5-plus catches in 8 of his 11 games played this season. He has zero games with fewer than four catches. The most recent games came against tough tight end matchups. That is not the case in Week 13.

I also think this could be the game where Engram FINALLY scores a TD at +230. Had a red-zone target last week, but Trevor Lawrence missed him in the end zone.

Has the most receiving yards (532) among all players without a score this season. Regression is going to happen. And it makes sense that it would take place in a dream matchup versus the Bengals.

And apparently, Trevor Lawrence knows that the two have not connected on a TD yet. That changes Monday night. Don’t hate the 9-to-1 odds on the 1st TD score either. The Jaguars have scored first in 8 games this season.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 12. 

Pat Freiermuth (+270/+1400) – Pat Freiermuth (Target Share: 34%) led the receiving group with 9 catches for 120 yards, averaging 13.3 yards per reception (11 targets) in Week 12. The Steelers’ burly tight end saw over 100 air yards, a rare feat for a tight end. He also only ran a route on 67% of dropbacks on a 59% snap share. There’s room for growth here for Patty F to be a fantasy tight end difference-maker down the stretch if this offense improves. His salary on DK skyrocketed from $2,900 last week to $4,300 this week. We could easily have him find the end zone this week versus the Cardinals. Since Week 8, they have allowed 6 receiving TDs to tight ends. On the year, they have faced the 5th-most red-zone touches to tight ends. The Steelers tight end already has two TDs this season in just 6 games played. 24% cover probability per the BettingPros Anytime TD tool.

And the Cardinals are tied with the Jets for the most 1st passing TDs allowed (8).

Brevin Jordan (+380/+1900) – The Broncos are horrible guarding tight ends, ranking dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. First in yards allowed and TDs. That would make this a solid spot for Dalton Schultz, but he has missed practice this week with a hamstring injury. That explains his bizarre usage in Week 12. Schultz only had two targets as his usage was very bad with Brevin Jordan in the lineup. The two split routes nearly 50/50. Jordan played a season-high 43% snap share, while Schultz played just 48% of the snaps. More importantly, Jordan played the most tight end snaps in red zone. Take the longshot odds for him to score in a dream matchup.

Josh Downs (+250/+1400) – Downs saw significant action with 13 targets (33% target share) in Week 12, resulting in 5 catches for 43 yards. He also had 3 red-zone targets but couldn’t find the end zone. The Titans have allowed the 3rd-most 1st passing TDs this season, while allowing the 1st score overall in 73% of their games. 24% cover probability per the BettingPros Anytime TD tool.

Juwan Johnson (+350/+2000) – Johnson led with 7 targets catching 4 balls (19% target share) in Week 12. Johnson played the most snaps (74%) of the skill players and ran the most routes (85% route participation). Could see an expanded role as the Saints deal with a ton of injuries. 21% cover probability per the BettingPros Anytime TD tool.

For longer odds, I also like +475 odds on A.T. Perry to score. He’s a big WR that scored back in Week 10. The Lions also rank 1st in red-zone targets allowed to WRs this season.

Tommy Tremble (+650/+2600) –Tremble is still undervalued by the market. Playing the most snaps as the TE1 on the offense. Tremble has scored in 2 of his last 5 games. Hayden Hurst is likely to miss the game with a concussion. Tampa Bay ranks first in red-zone targets to tight ends this season. Also have allowed the first TD scored in 9 games this season. Update: Tremble and Hurst are both out. That means Stephen Sullivan will draw the start at tight end for the Cardiac Cats. He had 5 targets in Week 9. +850 for an anytime TD.

Javonte Williams – (+110/+800) – The Texans are allowing the league’s highest rushing TD rate. Javonte Williams has zero rushing TDs this season. Only Alexander Mattison has fewer rushing yards without a rushing TD. In fact, Williams has rushed for 742 yards without at TD dating back to last season…Regression is coming. Houston ranks 6th in most rushing TDs ALLOWED (13). Just 11 passing TDs allowed this season (30th). 37% cover probability per the BettingPros Anytime TD tool.

The Broncos lead the NFL in most 1st TDs scored by RBs (5). The Texans are tied for the league lead in most 1st TDs allowed to RBs rushing.

Evan Engram  (+230/+900)  – See analysis above.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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