Erickson’s NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome to Andrew Erickson's Week 14 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 14 betting.

  • We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
  • Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
  • In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big - as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do - with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
  • All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
  • But Week 4 was rough fam...Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
  • 4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
  • But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert's 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
  • Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
  • Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
  • However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
  • Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday OBJ!
  • Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
  • In Week 11 we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7 including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
  • Thanksgiving day we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.
  • But the highlight of Week 12, was the official player props from last week's article. Oh baby did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI.
  • Week 13 brought some losses based on injuries, but we still came out in the green overall at 9-8. It was looking grim after Sunday, but a big game and anytime TD score from Evan Engram got us firmly in the winning column.
  • We are now up to 99-85-1 on official props (54%) this season. Getting hot at the right time. Let’s ride this into the back end of the NFL season.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won't make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

12 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let's turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

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Erickson's Week 14 NFL Player Prop Bets

Josh Jacobs under 76.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

It's the tough rushing matchup for the Las Vegas Raiders that I LOVE targeting in Week 14. Minnesota has allowed just ONE running back to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2...

Take the easy under on Josh Jacobs' rushing yardage prop set at 71.5 rushing yards on most sportsbooks. You can get an even better number on FanDuel at 76.5 rushing yards. STONE-COLD LOCK OF THE WEEK.

The Raiders will continue to run into the Vikings’ brick wall defensive front given the team's overreliance on rushing. Last four games, they boast a -9% pass rate over expectation. 27th in overall pass rate on early downs (46%).

Kyren Williams over 15.5 rushing attempts (-130 DraftKings)

Baltimore projects for bad weather this weekend. That means we could see more carries for running back Kyren Williams if the Rams can’t find success throwing the ball. The carries line is set at 15.5 – a number Williams has skyrocketed past in his last two starts since he returned from IR.

Roschon Johnson over 14.5 rushing yards (-114 DraftKings Sportsbook)

On the Bears’ offense, the Roschon Johnson rushing prop is simply just too low. 14.5 yards? He’s gone over this number in 8 of his 10 games played this season. And before the bye week, Johnson dominated the touches and snaps over Khalil Herbert with D'Onta Foreman inactive. Johnson played 74% of the snaps to Herbert's 21% snap share as he ran 3x of the routes versus the veteran. Johnson out-touched Herbert 15 to 8 with 10 carries and 5 catches. Herbert had just 6 carries all night. After having 3 in the first half the team turned to a heavy dosage of Johnson in the second half, feeding him 8 carries.

Even with Foreman back this week, I think that will impact Herbert’s role…not RJ’s. Take the over on the extremely low rushing number for a rookie who should see a solid workload out of the bye week. Averaged 5 yards per carry for 30 yards the last time he played the Lions a few weeks ago.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 25.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

I love the OVER on Jahmyr Gibbs' receiving props.

Jahmyr Gibbs gained 60 rushing yards on 8 carries while backfield mate David Montgomery added 56 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 18 carries last week. Gibbs ran the ball down to the goal line on a big play and then Monty punched the score in. Montgomery out-carried Gibbs - 11 versus 6 - in the first half. He also earned the majority of red zone work (4 vs 3) while the duo split routes run 50/50. Montgomery played 62% of the snaps and Gibbs played 45% of the snaps.

Gibbs only saw 2 targets in the game. Montgomery also saw 2 targets. OUTLIER in a positive game script.

We could see more of a Gibbs-driven game against the Bears based on how bad they have been against running backs in the passing game this season. Most receiving yards allowed to RB this season. Gibbs also went for 6 catches for 59 yards the last time he faced the Bears. Potential bad weather also supports more short dump-offs to Gibbs.

D.J. Moore over 68.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)

D.J. Moore has been a stud with Justin Fields as his QB this season. He has over 4.5 receptions in his last 7 games with Fields. He’s also gone OVER 68.5 receiving yards in his last four games with Fields at QB. The Lions are a dream matchup that Moore already beat just a few weeks ago, to the turn of 7-96-1 on 9 targets. Over the last four games, Detroit has allowed over 13.5 receptions and over 190 yards per game to opposing WRs. Of the last 10 WR1s they have faced, nine have gone over their projected receiving yards while 7 have gone over their receptions prop.

Moore’s anytime TD props are also solid, given the Lions rank dead last in both red-zone targets and red-zone touches allowed to WRs this season.

Chuba Hubbard over 13.5 rushing attempts (-125 BetMGM)

It’s the run-heavy nature of this game that has me HAMMERING the over on Chuba Hubbard’s 12.5 rushing attempts. Gone over in the last two games. Gone over in 3 of the 4 games called by Thomas Brown as the team’s offensive coordinator. Not to mention, the Saints have been bad versus the run as of late. Per the FantasyPros Week 14 Primer, since Week 8, New Orleans has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the highest yards per carry-to-zone runs (Hubbard 58% zone).

Note that this line has been hammered up since it opened at 11.5. So if you take the bet – I got it at 12.5 carries – be aware that you are chasing steam and that you have lost some EV along the way.

Juwan Johnson under 2.5 receptions (-130 BetMGM)

Juwan Johnson was a total bust last week. Goose-egged on 3 targets. Zero in the second half. Dead last in receiving EPA in Week 13. He ran a route on 61% of dropbacks and played 57% of the snaps, a decline from the previous week when all the Saints WRs got hurt. Losing Rashid Shaheed wasn't enough to boost Johnson's involvement in the offense. I’d imagine that Week 14 will be no different.

The Panthers’ defense has also been elite versus tight ends, allowing the 2nd fewest catches allowed to tight ends this season. Johnson has gone over 2.5 catches just thrice in 8 games played this season. He was held to two catches for 13 yards when he last faced the Panthers earlier this season.

I don’t always bet unders. But when I do, it’s against the fringe fantasy tight ends that will almost certainly let you down.

C.J. Stroud over 9.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Stealing this player prop from BettingPros’ own, Chris Welsh. C.J. Stroud has gone OVER 9.5 rushing yards in four of his last 6 games. Meanwhile, the Jets defense has allowed an over to an opposing QB’s rushing yards in 8 of their last 10 games. On the season, the Jets have allowed the 7th-most rushing yards per game to QBs.

Nico Collins under 71.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Nico Collins had a standout game in Week 13, amassing 191 yards and a touchdown on 9 receptions from 12 targets (46% target share). 4-122 on 6 targets in the first half. Also commanded 3 red-zone targets. Nearly 150 air yards. 2nd among all WRs in weighted opportunity.

Still, he and Stroud will be tasked with a difficult matchup in Week 14 against the Jets air-tight defense. The Jets are allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. Only one QB they have faced this season has gone over 256 yards - which was Stroud's passing yards projection across books this week when the lines first opened. It's been heavily bet down to 217 passing yards across many sportsbooks based on the difficult matchup.

They have also allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs, ranking 3rd in fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs.

Stroud was mortal against the Broncos' defense at home this past, throwing for just 274 yards. His yardage numbers have dropped in 5 straight games. I think the trend continues with the tough matchup on deck where the focus will be more on the ground game. And if he goes UNDER his projected passing yardage, chances are he will bring his WR1 with him. Collins on the road this season has been held to 40 or fewer receiving yards in 3 of 4 road games.

Note that both props have been bet down slightly since they opened. That's where the "sharps" are pushing the number. Further fuel toward backing the game total going UNDER.

However, there is still some value in the under of Collins's receiving yards. The prop is listed between 69.5 and 72.5 yards across most books at the time of this writing.

Ja'Marr Chase over 67.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)

Ja’Marr Chase has played two starts with Jake Browning and gone OVER 67.5 receiving yards in both contests. He’s averaged 9 targets in those games, coming off a 12-target game in Week 13. He’s also a candidate to rip off a massive gain in one play and I love that for him versus the Colts defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in explosive plays allowed on defense. The last 3 No. 1 WRs they have faced have gone over 70 yards.

Zack Moss over 71.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Bengals rank 30th in run defense DVOA this season.

Zack Moss managed 51 yards on 19 carries last week, but with a modest 2.7 yards per attempt. He was targeted thrice for 2 catches and 6 yards. But more importantly, he played a whopping 94% of the snaps and totaled 9 touches in the red zone. Alas, no scores for Moss despite the best usage you could see for a running back.

Buy the discount with him in this great matchup. The Bengals have allowed over 99 rushing yards to Najee Harris and Devin Singletary at different points this season. Look for Moss – who has 70 rushing yards in all of his starts outside last week – to post a huge rushing total in Week 14.

Josh Downs over 41.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Bengals have been one of the worst defenses against tight ends this season, specifically versus the slot. The Colts don't have one tight end they use, so I think we get overlap for the inside matchup for Colts slot WR, Josh Downs. Downs drew 5 targets in Week 13 but finished with just 3 catches for 14 yards. Still ran a route on 79% of dropbacks. Buy low.

We just saw Christian Kirk and his rookie backup Parker Washington post strong numbers against the Bengals’ secondary operating from the slot. The last 9 most comparable WRs to Downs that have faced the Bengals, have also gone OVER their receiving yards prop, with all amassing 58 receiving yards or more.

Javonte Williams over 2.5 receptions (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Chargers have been much worse defending RBs in the passing game, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA against RBs. So back Javonte Williams to have a productive game as both a rusher/receiver. Williams has caught at least 3 passes in 5 of his last 6 games. Every RB that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER their receptions prop this season.

Gerald Everett over 29.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Gerald Everett contributed 44 yards on 5 targets (14% target share) last week. Commanded a team-high 4 targets in the first half.  He continues to see underwhelming usage with other tight ends, but at least he gets targeted on a semi-consistent basis. Great matchup for Everett this week against the Broncos' No. 32-ranked defense versus tight ends.

The last 9 tight ends they have faced have gone for at least 30 yards. Everett has gone OVER 40 yards in back-to-back games.

Cade Otton over 23.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tight end Cade Otton had his lone Week 13 target taken away due to an OPI penalty. He still played 98% of the snaps and ran a route on 30 of 32 Baker Mayfield dropbacks. Buy the dip versus the Falcons' defense which is horrible versus tight ends. $3,100 on DraftKings in Week 14. The cheapest tight-end DFS money can buy.

Atlanta is allowing the 6th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (59/game) and 4th-most catches (6.1).

Before last week, Otton was over 27 receiving yards in five of his last 6 games played. Caught 5 balls for 43 yards when he played Atlanta earlier this season. Also very much like Otton’s +440 odds to score in this game. The amount of yards and catches the Falcons have allowed to TEs has not matched TEs scoring. That will regress sooner rather than later.

Saquon Barkley over 15.5 rushing attempts (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Their offensive game plan in this game will be Saquon Barkley or Bust. The Packers own the 4th-highest run rate faced this season. This is the only way the Giants will be able to successfully move the ball. Expect Barkley to get fed on Monday night. The projections have him pegged for 17.2 rushing attempts. Over and out.

Tua Tagovailoa under 32.5 pass attempts (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)

He’s gone under in his last two games and in 7 of 12 games played this season. The Titans – despite how bad they have been against the pass – often don’t face a ton of passing volume. The Titans have faced the 3rd-highest run rate on the road this season and they will be without starting defensive lineman, DT Jeffery Simmons.
Last 10 QBs they have faced, 7 have gone under 32.5 pass attempts. Only two QBs they have faced all year have gone over 32 pass attempts against the Titans. One was last week, in a game that went into OT. Think we could see more running in a what could be another blowout game in South Beach.

Derrick Henry under 14.5 rushing attempts (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Derrick Henry under 56.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Derrick Henry has only played two games on the road this season where he was seen at 15 or more carries. It happened in Week 1 and back in Week 9. Those were the only games on the road where he has exceeded 45 rushing yards.

The Titans have a bad offensive line that doesn't travel well. Hence seven of the Titans’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

And the Dolphins defense is going to present major issues for them. Miami is the No. 3 best DST vs fantasy RBs over the last 4 games. They are also allowing the second-lowest explosive run rate at 5.8%. Tied with the Vikings for allowing the fewest rushes over 10 yards (16).

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 12. 

Brevin Jordan (+310/+1100) - The Jets are horrible at guarding tight ends, ranking first in TDs allowed to the position. That would make this a solid spot for Brevin Jordan who is slated to be the Texans TE1 with Dalton Schultz out another week. In spot start duty last week, Jordan contributed significantly with 64 yards on 3 catches (4 targets, 15%). Very strong usage at 77% route participation.  Take the longshot odds for him to score in a dream matchup.

Josh Downs (+275/+1500) - Josh Downs saw significant action with 13 targets (33% target share) in Week 12, resulting in 5 catches for 43 yards. He also had 3 red-zone targets but couldn't find the end zone. He’s overdue for a TD, and I think this is a great spot for him to score based on how badly the Bengals are defending the slot (as alluded to above).

Cade Otton (+350/+2200) - See analysis above. 

Cole Kmet (+250/+1300) - The Lions rank 5th in the NFL in red-zone touches faced by tight ends. The Bears rank 1st in that category. I like the TD odds both both Kmet and Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (+200/+1100) to score in this contest after neither scored in their first matchup head-to-head.

Javonte Williams - (+130/+750) - Javonte Williams has zero rushing TDs this season. Only Alexander Mattison has fewer rushing yards without a rushing TD. In fact, Williams has rushed for 788 yards without a TD dating back to last season...Regression is coming. 33% cover probability per the BettingPros Anytime TD tool. He also has the most red-zone touches (18) with just one TD score this season. The Chargers have allowed the 5th-most rushing yards – at nearly 5 yards per attempt – to RBs over the last four weeks.

Alexander Mattison (+165/+750) – His expected rushing TDs total is 5.2 on the season. He has zero rushing TDs. That should change versus the Raiders defense that has allowed the 5th-most rushing TDs to RBs this season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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