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Erickson’s NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 15 betting.

  • We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
  • Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
  • In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
  • All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
  • But Week 4 was rough fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
  • 4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
  • But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert’s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
  • Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
  • Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
  • However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
  • Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday OBJ!
  • Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
  • In Week 11 we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7 including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
  • Thanksgiving day we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.
  • But the highlight of Week 12, was the official player props from last week’s article. Oh baby did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI.
  • Week 13 brought some losses based on injuries, but we still came out in the green overall at 9-8. It was looking grim after Sunday, but a big game and anytime TD score from Evan Engram got us firmly in the winning column.
  • As for Week 14. It was a flat week. 9-9 straight up. But at least we hit on the Javonte Williams and Cade Otton anytime TDs.
  • We are still up to 108-94-1 on official props (54%) this season. Getting hot at the right time. Let’s ride this into the back end of the NFL season into the postseason.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won’t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

14 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let’s turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson’s Week 15 NFL Player Prop Bets

Joe Mixon under 55.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I LOVE targeting the tough rushing matchup for the Bengals in Week 14. Minnesota has allowed just ONE running back to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2. Just two RBs they have faced this season have gone for 55 yards or more this season.

As Joe Mixon continues to cede touches to rookie Chase Brown, the under on his rushing yards prop is the only way to go in this spot. His number opened at 64.5 rushing yards and has been bet down to 55.5 rushing yards.

Joe Mixon over 26.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Take the under on Mixon’s rushing, but the over on his receiving yards that opened at 26.5. Gone over in four straight games and 7 of his last 9.

Josh Downs over 42.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

For the Colts offense, you need to bet the over on Josh Downs. The Steelers are horrible versus slot WRs. Another buy-low opportunity for the Colts’ shifty slot receiver. Pittsburgh has allowed the 4th-most points per game to slot WRs compared to the 4th-fewest points per game to perimeter WRs.

Using the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, you’ll find that 9 of the last 10 most comparable WRs to Downs have gone OVER their projected receiving yards against the Steelers this season.

George Pickens under 3.5 receptions (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)

As for the Steelers WRs, it’s a solid matchup on paper versus the Colts secondary. But the QB situation hardly makes either Diontae Johnson or George Pickens safe bets for overs.

Johnson was a key target last Thursday night for Trubisky, receiving 7 targets (20% target share) and making 3 receptions for 57 yards, including a 25-yard touchdown in the first half. He also commanded 136 air yards – 49% air yard share. He scored twice in the last two games – both passes coming from Trubisky.

The target share was distributed across various receivers, with Johnson, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth being notable contributors. Freiermuth also had 7 targets (20% target share) and caught a 2-point conversion.

Pickens was targeted 6 times (17% target share), making 5 receptions for a total of 19 yards.

Freiermuth and Johnson were both on the field for 69% of the snaps. Freiermuth finally returned to the full-time role he had pre-injury, running a route on 83% of dropbacks. Top-tier usage that foreshadows stronger statical outputs and involvement down the stretch.

The Trubisky splits favoring Johnson over Pickens that I outlined last week came to fruition last week. You cannot play Pickens in fantasy football if Trubisky is the team’s starting QB. Johnson’s targets with Trubisky games in 2022: 12, 10, 11, 8, 10, 7. Pickens in those same games: 3, 2, 7, 3, 5, 6.

The Colts are allowing the 8th fewest receptions per game to WRs this season. Back to the under on Pickens’ 3.5 receptions prop. Gone under in 4 of 7 last games since Johnson returned to the lineup. And we all watched Trubisky play QB last Thursday night. You shouldn’t have much confidence in his wide receivers to deliver.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 BetMGM)

I love the matchup for the Lions RBs to be super productive in this spot on Saturday night. Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yardage prop opened at 43.5 yards and it was egregiously too LOW. Gone over in three straight games and led the team in rushing attempts last week over David Montgomery. Denver always has allowed the most rushing yards per to RBs this season. 8 of the last 10 RBs they have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

The projections have Gibbs flying over this number at 53.2 yards.

Derrick Henry OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

What’s more to say when it comes to the Big Dog’s rushing yardage props? He has gone over this number in all 6 of his home games played this season, rushing for no less than 76 yards in any game played in Nashville. Ride the Big Dog into the green in December against the Houston Texans.

Tucker Kraft over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Bucs are also allowing the 6th-most yards and 5th-most receptions per game to tight ends. Last week, Packers tight end Tucker Kraft had 64 yards on 4 catches on 4 targets (100% snap share). He had 37 yards the previous week. Take the over on his receiving yards props this week. And dabble in some +275 to score a TD. The Buccaneers are tied with the Colts for the most red-zone targets allowed to tight ends this season.

Bijan Robinson OVER 2.5 receptions (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Overs on Bijan Robinson rushing? You bet. Over 64.5 rushing yards. Or better yet, take the over on his 2.5 receptions prop. Gone over in 3 straight games. His average this season is 3.1 receptions per game. When he faced the Panthers back in Week 1, Robinson caught all 6 of his targets for 27 yards.

Robinson led with 6 carries and 5 targets in the first half of last week’s game. Robinson finished with 34 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts. The rookie contributed more to the receiving game with 54 yards on 5 receptions from 7 targets.

Bryce Young OVER 2.5 rushing attempts (EVEN BetMGM)

This one comes straight from the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. It’s the No. 1-rated +EV bet on the Sunday slate. And for good reason. Young has gone over 2.5 rushes in 5 of his last 7 games. Since the Panthers’ bye week, he has rushed at least twice in all but one game. Projections have him for 3.6 rushing attempts. The Falcons on average are facing 5 rushing attempts per game from opposing QBs.

Saquon Barkley over 67.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Giants can and will be able to run the ball with Saquon Barkley versus the New Orleans Saints. And that’s a key part of how the Giants can pull the upset against the Saints. +220 on the Giants ML.

The Saints have allowed the league’s most rushing yards to RBs over the last four weeks at 5.1 yards per carry. Given the Giants’ likely run-heavy approach, correlate the Barkley rushing with Tommy DeVito’s under passing attempts set at 27.5. He has not gone over this number at any point this season (last 5 starts).

Breece Hall under 43.5 rushing yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

For props, bet Breece Hall rushing unders at 43.5 yards. He has hit the under in his last five games (7 of the last 8) as the Jets cannot run the football on the ground effectively in any way. He got to just 25 yards the last time he faced the Dolphins. Note that last week, Dalvin Cook out-carried Hall 4 vs 5 in the first half. Hall ended with 10 carries and 40 rushing yards versus Cook’s 13 yards on 7 attempts. 62% snap rate to Cook’s 24% snap share.

The Dolphins’ defense is going to present major issues for the Jets’ rushing attack. Miami is the 5th best defense vs RBs over the last 4 games in terms of rushing yards allowed. They are also allowing the lowest explosive run rate at 5.3%. Allowing the fewest rushes over 10 yards (16).

Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 45.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Take the under on Chiefs RB rushing props. Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing line opened at 45.5 rushing yards. Against a horrible Bills run defense last week, he mustered just 39 yards in spot start duty with Isiah Pacheco out. Easy under play.

Joe Flacco under 237.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

For props, I love the under on Joe Flacco’s passing yards at 237.5 yards. 8 of the last 11 QBs facing the Bears have gone UNDER their yardage totals, including 6 of the last 7. The Bears’ pass defense has improved dramatically since a rocky start. 3rd lowest yards per attempt faced the last 3 weeks. They haven’t allowed more than 225 passing yards to any QB since Week 8 (Justin Herbert).

Demarcus Robinson under 3.5 receptions (-158 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The player props are mostly all-overs in Commanders-Rams as alluded to in this week’s BP Primer. Correlate them to your heart’s desire. Matthew Stafford’s passing yards and Puka Nacua’s receiving yards and/or receptions prop at plus money. But fade Demarcus Robinson into oblivion. It took him 10 targets last week to catch 3 passes. Also love the under on his receiving yards set at 36.5 yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook).

James Conner under 9.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)

James Conner has been losing out on targets in the passing game to the likes of Emeri Demercado and Michael Carter throughout the season. He’s no longer a locked-and-loaded three-down RB, with him ceding snaps on third downs to other Cardinals RBs. Conner has gone over 9.5 receiving yards ONCE this season. In 9 games played. EMPTY THE CLIP.

George Kittle under 3.5 receptions (+114 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the 4th-fewest receptions to tight ends this season. George Kittle has 3.5 or more receptions in just two games played this season alongside a healthy Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. With those guys both healthy in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals, he caught one pass for 9 yards.

Tony Pollard over 51.5 rushing yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I love the over on Tony Pollard’s rushing yards on the Cowboys’ offense. He has been on a heater after a slow start to the season. He’s gone OVER 51.5 rushing yards in 5 straight games and for 51-plus in 7 straight games. The Bills run defense is allowed the league’s 3rd-highest explosive run rate (12.8%).

Lamar Jackson over 215.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I love the over on Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop this week. 215.5 passing yards is too low. Lamar has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games. Also, the Jags have allowed 296 or more passing yards in 4 of their last 5 games. Like the correlation with Gus Edwards’ 31.5 rushing yards under. Gone under the rushing number in  3 of his last 4.  The Jaguars are facing the 3rd-fewest rushing attempts per game this season. Gus Bus has gone under his rushing attempts prop and yardage totals in his last 2 games as the team ramps up rookie Keaton Mitchell.

Odell Beckham Jr. over 38.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Correlate it with overs on Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ’s yardage prop is suppressed at a lowly 37.5 yards. He’s got 40-plus in four of his last 5 games. Last week, Beckham had 4 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown. He received 10 targets (25% target share, 41% air yards share, 218 air yards). OBJ only played 53% of the snaps, as the team monitors his workload. But it’s clear that when he is on the field, he is highly involved in the passing game.

The Jaguars are allowing the 6th-most receiving yards per game to WRs this season – including the most over the last four weeks at nearly 200 yards per game. OBJ’s anytime TD odds also seem very long at +285, given his involvement in the red zone this season.

Evan Engram over 47.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Evan Engram has gone over 47.5 yards in 8 of 13 games this season (62%) including three straight. Baltimore has allowed an over to an opposing tight end in 5 of their last 6 games, with four tight ends going over 50 yards.

With the loss of safety Kyle Hamilton, Engram should be peppered with targets over the middle of the field as Trevor Lawrence’s most reliable target. In Week 14, Engram, caught 11 passes for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, showing his significant role in the offense. Engram was targeted 12 times, giving him a target share of 24% (2 red-zone targets).

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 12. 

Josh Downs (+260/+1500) – Josh Downs saw significant action with 13 targets (33% target share) in Week 12, resulting in 5 catches for 43 yards. He also had 3 red-zone targets but couldn’t find the end zone. He’s overdue for a TD, and I think this is a great spot for him to score based on how badly the Pittsburgh Steelers are defending the slot (as alluded to above). Pittsburgh has also allowed the 2nd-most 1st TD scores – 8 of which have come by passing TDs. 1st TD bet. 

Pat Freiermuth (+270/+1800) – The Colts have faced the most red-zone targets to tight ends this season but have allowed just 2 TD scores. Regression to the mean is coming. Freiermuth also had 7 targets (20% target share) and caught a 2-point conversion last week. He finally returned to the full-time role he had pre-injury, running a route on 83% of dropbacks. Top-tier usage that foreshadows strong TD production down the stretch.

Jerry Jeudy (+220/+1500) – Jerry Jeudy left a lot of production on the table last week. I like his +220 odds at TD score versus the Lions, after he came up just short of scoring last week. And apparently, the Courtland Sutton TD was originally dialed up for Jeudy to score on. There’s no stopping Sutton from scoring his weekly TDs. Still, the facts strongly back Jeudy to be in a prime regression blow-up sport. He has the second-most receiving yards, catches and targets for a WR with only 1 TD this season. His expected TD output is 4 TDs. The Lions rank first in RZ touches to WRs this season. 25% cover probability in the BettingPros AnyTime TD report. The Broncos have scored 1st in 8 of their games this season. 1st TD bet.

Tyler Allgeier (+360/+1200) – No team has allowed more rushing TDs to RBs than the Panthers this season. The odds seem too short for a guy who sees plenty of second-half usage and occasional red-zone touches. Note that Tyler Allgeier is the rare player I would be on to score the LAST TD in a game, given his preferred usage in the 4th quarter to run out the clock (+1200 to score the last TD). 22% cover probability in the BettingPros AnyTime TD report. Last TD bet. 

Demario Douglas (+500/+2300) – Regression is coming. The rookie WR has the most receiving yards this season (410) without a TD score. The Giants rank 2nd in red-zone targets allowed to WRs and in red-zone touches to WRs. Douglas’ expected TDs this season are 2. 16% cover probability in the BettingPros AnyTime TD report. The report also loves JuJu Smith-Schuster at an absurd +850 odds to score against his old team. Don’t overestimate the revenge game narrative for Smith-Schuster.

Logan Thomas (+310/+1700) – No team has allowed more receiving TDs to tight ends than the Rams this season (7).

Darren Waller (+360/+1600– No team has allowed more receiving TDs to tight ends than the Saints this season (7). Waller is expected to play this week coming off the IR. He is not projected for a full workload. Ie. he will likely see snaps in the red zone.

Tommy DeVito (+500/+2200)  – Tommy DeVito hasn’t scored a rushing TD since Week 1. Since then, he has racked up over 140 rushing scoreless rushing yards. Given how bad the Saints are at defending mobile QBs, wouldn’t shock me to see DeVito sneak in a rushing score against their man-heavy scheme. 15% cover probability in the BettingPros AnyTime TD report.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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