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Erickson’s NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome to Andrew Erickson's Week 16 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 16 betting.

  • We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
  • Week 2 was a step back, going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
  • In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big - as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do - with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
  • All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
  • But Week 4 was rough, fam...Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
  • 4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
  • But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert's 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
  • Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
  • Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
  • However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
  • Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday OBJ!
  • Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
  • In Week 11 we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7 including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
  • Thanksgiving day we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.
  • But the highlight of Week 12, was the official player props from last week's article. Oh baby did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI.
  • Week 13 brought some losses based on injuries, but we still came out in the green overall at 9-8. It was looking grim after Sunday, but a big game and anytime TD score from Evan Engram got us firmly in the winning column.
  • As for Week 14. It was a flat week. 9-9 straight up. But at least we hit on the Javonte Williams and Cade Otton anytime TDs.
  • Week 15…more of the same. 10-9. So far, no Christmas Gifts. The Ravens passing game underwhelming hurt us badly.
  • We are still up to 118-103-1 on official props (54%) this season. Getting hot at the right time.
  • Let's ride this into the back end of the NFL season into the postseason.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won't make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

15 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let's turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson's Week 16 NFL Player Prop Bets

Derrick Henry over 15.5 carries (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Ride the Big Dog, Derrick Henry, for another week at home. Henry is NOTORIOUS for steamrolling defenses in early December. Over 5 career yards per carry in December for Henry - the highest mark in any month. He has 75-plus rushing yards in all but one of the Titans' home games this season.  He also has 16-plus carries in all but one home game played this season. He’s also gone for 16-plus carries in four straight games.

The Seahawks defense has allowed 68-plus rushing yards to the last 5 RBs they have faced this season. Like the OVER on Henry’s 64.5 rushing yardage prop as well this week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 40.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Take the overs on rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Titans are the 8th best matchup for slot WRs. JSN has 40-plus yards in 6 of his last 7 games played this season.

Drake London over 52.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Drake London's receiving yards prop opened at 48.5 yards on Prizepicks and has moved up to 52.5 yards on most other sportsbooks.

We are 2-0 correctly calling the London games in as many weeks, and this is a spot where we want the over. He's back at home versus a softer pass defense that has allowed the last 5 No.1 WRs they have faced to go OVER 62 receiving yards. London has gone over 52.5 yards in his last 5 home games, compiling no less than 67 yards in any contest.

Amari Cooper over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Amari Cooper has gone for 70-plus yards in two of Joe Flacco’s 3 starts this season. He is averaging well over 11 yards per reception with his elite QB, and will take on a Texans defense that has allowed the last ten No. 1 opposing WRs to go OVER their projected receiving yards total. Cooper is averaging 70 yards per game this season.

Jordan Love under 232.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Taking the UNDER on Jordan Love's 232.5 passing yards prop in Week 16. Gone under this number in 4 of his 7 road games this season. This should be a tougher matchup for Love, who may be without both Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. Carolina is a run-funnel and they have an underrated secondary. 12 of 13 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season. The last 10? All unders. Fade the Packers passing game on the road this week.

Tucker Kraft under 3.5 receptions (+105 BetMGM)

The Panthers' defense has also been elite versus tight ends, allowing the 2nd fewest catches allowed to tight ends this season. 9 of the last 11 tight ends Carolina has faced have gone UNDER their projected receptions totals. Also have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs aligned in the slot. Tucker Kraft will be a tough option to trust this week in both props and fantasy unless you are in on the unders.

Terry McLaurin under 51.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

Terry McLaurin was a standout with 141 receiving yards on 6 catches, including a touchdown last week. The minute that Jacoby Brissett entered the game, TMC started to cook. Totaled 238 air yards. Brissett hit him on a 49-yard TD, but it was overturned to him being down at the 1-yard line.

Before Brissett came in the game, TMC was sitting on 3 catches for 48 yards. He caught passes of 29, 16 and 48 yards from the journeyman QB. Don't trust him versus the Jets defense that allows the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs with Howell back at QB.

Take the under 51.5 yards on McLaurin for Week 16. Before last week, he was under 57.5 yards in four straight games. He's projected for just 50 receiving yards in the BettingPros Prizepicks Cheat Sheet.

Jordan Addison over 46.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Attack this game  with rookie WR Jordan Addison. Addison led with 6 catches for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Justin Jefferson made 7 receptions for 84 yards in Week 15. Jefferson was targeted 10 times giving him a Target share of 29.4%. Saw 52% of the team's air yards. Addison received 6 targets, accounting for about 18% of the total pass attempts.

The rookie remains super-efficient with his opportunities, which is why I love him MORE THAN his egregiously low receiving number set at 49.5 yards. He's gone over this number in 10/14 games played this season (71%) including in Mullens' first start last week. Only once in 6 games played with a fully healthy Jefferson has Addison come under 41.5 yards, totaling no less than 52 yards.

Addison is projected for just 49 receiving yards in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet in a great matchup versus the Lions. The Lions are 30th in DVOA vs. No. 2 WRs this season.

Baker Mayfield over 235.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Take the OVER for Baker Mayfield's 235.5 passing yards prop versus the Jags. His average this season is 237 passing yards. No team has allowed more passing yards in the last four weeks than Jacksonville (285.5 per game). Only 3 QBs they have faced this season have NOT gone over their passing yards projection. And correlate the play with his No. 1 WR, Mike Evans to go over 66.5 receiving yards.

Evans has gone over 66.5 receiving yards in his last 3 home games. He is Projected for just 70 receiving yards in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. The Jaguars have also allowed the 6th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs. 6th-most yards to all WRs in the last four weeks. 4th-most to tight ends over same span.

Talked about my love for Baker Mayfield on the early PrizePicks Show this week. The lines are STILL too low.

James Conner under 53.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Bears have one of the league's best-run defenses, ranking top-5 in fewest yards per carry allowed this season. James Conner will struggle versus the Bears are a no-run defense. Other than the Lions' RBs, no RB has rushed for 60 yards versus the Bears' defense since Week 4.

Conner soared over his rushing prop last week against a fierce 49ers defense, but half his yardage on a 44-yard burst. Before that, he was sitting on 27 yards on 10 carries in the first half. Played 49% of the snaps in a three-way committee.

D'Onta Foreman over 37.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Bears are going to be able to run ALL over the Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed to RBs this season. D'Onta Foreman (who started last week) was held to -6 rushing yards on a backfield-leading 6 carries but earned the 2 red-zone carries. Multiple goal-line attempts that had no chance of converting. 26% snap share. But he led the first half-carries (4) versus 2 for each of the other RBs. Roschon Johnson was the last RB to earn a touch (2nd quarter).

One RB from every team the Cardinals have faced this season has gone for at least 40 rushing yards. With Foreman the likeliest candidate to spearhead the backfield, I love him at this discounted number. +195 for an anytime TD is also great value. He has minus odds on other sportsbooks.

Raheem Mostert over 57.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Given how the Dallas Cowboys run defense was exposed last week, we could easily see Miami dial up a methodical rushing attack to take care of business against Big D with Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane at the forefront of the rushing attack.

Mostert has rushed for 60-plus yards in 5 of his 7 home games played this season. Dallas also ranks 5th-worst in rushing yards allowed per game on the road this season (148.3).

Javonte Williams under 55.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Take the under on Broncos RB rushing props. Javonte Williams' rushing line opened at 55.5 rushing yards. He's gone under this mark in 3 of his last 5 games. The Patriots haven't allowed an RB to hit 55 rushing yards since Week 10. In the last four games, they have allowed an average of just 43.5 rushing yards to RBs.

Isiah Pacheco under 64.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The biggest mismatch is that the Raiders defense cannot stop the run. Isiah Pacheco will be back for the Chiefs in Week 16. But a run-heavy game script projects for a lower-scoring affair. And Pacheco's rushing prop is set very high based on the matchup at 64.5 rushing yards. But coming off minor shoulder surgery, hard to imagine he has a CRAZY workload. Would either avoid it altogether or bet the under. He has gone over 64.5 rushing yards twice in 2 of his last 8 games played. And against these same Raiders - just 55 rushing yards. Also like the bet on taking the under on his total rushing attempts – set at 14.5 attempts on FanDuel Sportsbook (-108).

Lamar Jackson over 19.5 completions (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The 49ers have allowed the 2nd-most completions this season to QBs. Lamar Jackson ranks 11th in the NFL in completion rate (66%) averaging 19 per game. The last 3 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. This prop is the No. 1 +EV player prop in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for Week 16.

George Kittle under 3.5 receptions (+124 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Baltimore has allowed an over to an opposing tight end in 5 of their last 7 games, with four tight ends going over 50 yards. However, they do not allow many receptions to tight ends (4.7 per game).

This George Kittle receptions prop at 3.5 has been EZ money this season. We bet it last week to flying colors. Rinse and repeat with it again listed a plus odds. Kittle has 3.5 or more receptions in just two games played this season alongside a healthy Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 16. 

Demario Douglas (+550/+2300) - Regression is coming. The rookie WR has the most receiving yards this season (443) without a TD score.  Douglas' expected TDs this season are over 2.  18% cover probability in the BettingPros AnyTime TD report. 4th-highest EV bet this week in the BettingPros AnyTime TD report. I also love the odds for Mike Gesicki to score at +1000 on Fan Duel. Hunter Henry could miss this game, and he has scored the majority of TDs for the Patriots. If he can’t go, jump on these undervalued Patriots players to score on Christmas Eve has long-shot odds. Gesicki has 4 red-zone targets this season.

Jonnu Smith (+450/+2300) - The Colts’ defense is going to give up a TD to a tight end this week. Their defense has faced the 3rd-most red zone touches and 4th-most RZ targets to tight ends, but they have only allowed two TDs. When Taylor Heinicke last started, Jonnu Smith was his leading receiver.

Richie James Jr. (+800/+2900) – Skyy Moore was placed on IR and Kadarius Toney has been missing practices. Toney is also horrible. Ergo, after Rashee Rice, the Chiefs WR room is wide open for potential TD production at monster-long odds. If Mecole Hardman plays, look out for his number as well (not currently listed). Also start sprinkling in some Patrick Mahomes anytime TD props. He has not scored yet this season. He’s never NOT scored a TD during the regular season. 1st TD bet is in play for James and/or Hardman, given how often the Chiefs score 1st through a WR passing TD (5 times).

Boston Scott (+350/+1600)  - Tis the season. Scott has 10 touchdowns in eight career games against the Giants. It’s a bit worth wagering on this Christmas. He has not scored yet this season. If Philly blows out the Giants, he could very much be the last TD scorer. Last TD bet.

Jalin Hyatt (+750/+3900) - A big-play WR who has not scored yet this season. The Eagles bleed production to WRs, so I love the longshot odds with Hyatt to hit paydirt for the first time in his rookie season. The 4th-highest EV bet this week in the BettingPros AnyTime TD report. Love this as a 1st TD bet. Eagles rank 2nd in most 1st receiving TDs allowed to WRs this season.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (+220/+1000) – 5 red-zone carries on the season. Same as Antonio Gibson. He was the goal-line back last week with Brian Robinson out of the lineup. No team has scored fewer first TDs than the Jets this season. If the Commanders get the ball in the red zone first, it will most likely be a C-Rod rushing TD. 1st TD bet.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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