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Erickson’s NFL Week 17 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 17 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 17 betting.

  • We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
  • Week 2 was a step back, going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
  • In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
  • All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
  • But Week 4 was rough, fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
  • 4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
  • But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert’s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
  • Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
  • Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
  • However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
  • Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday OBJ!
  • Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
  • In Week 11 we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7 including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
  • Thanksgiving day we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.
  • But the highlight of Week 12, was the official player props from last week’s article. Oh baby did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI.
  • Week 13 brought some losses based on injuries, but we still came out in the green overall at 9-8. It was looking grim after Sunday, but a big game and anytime TD score from Evan Engram got us firmly in the winning column.
  • As for Week 14. It was a flat week. 9-9 straight up. But at least we hit on the Javonte Williams and Cade Otton anytime TDs.
  • Week 15…more of the same. 10-9. So far, no Christmas Gifts. The Ravens passing game underwhelming hurt us badly.
  • Week 16 was generous during the holiday season. 10-5 straight up on the 15 props. YTLSI.
  • We are still up to 128-108-1 on official props (54%) this season. Heating up at the right time.
  • Let’s ride this into the back end of the NFL season into the postseason.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won’t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

16 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let’s turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson’s Week 17 NFL Player Prop Bets

Jahmyr Gibbs over 49.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

Gibbs has gone OVER 49.5 rushing yards in 5 straight games. He has failed to hit 50 rushing yards once since Week 5. Given how bad Dallas’ defense has been versus the run, allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs over the last four weeks, this is an easy bet as they come.

James Cook under 65.5 rushing yards (-110 BetMGM)

Running back James Cook has been on a heater, but has only surpassed 69.5 yards in two of his last 4 games played. Cook has just 73 or more yards in one game (vs Dallas) in his last five games.

He was held to 56 yards the last time he faced the Patriots. I think he will run into similar challenges this week.

The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.26 yards per carry to opposing RBs. The Patriots haven’t allowed an RB to hit 55 rushing yards since Week 10. In the last five games, they have allowed an average of fewer than 45 rushing yards to RBs.

Isaiah Likely over 43.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Dolphins are allowing the 10th-most receptions per game to tight ends (5.3). 7 of the last 10 tight ends to face the Dolphins have surpassed their receiving yards prop. Isaiah Likely has 40 or more yards in four straight games. He’s gone OVER his receiving yards prop in all four contests.

Justice Hill under 31.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Since the Dolphins’ Week 10 bye week, they have allowed one RB to rush for more than 40 yards against them. Justice Hill has not rushed for 30 yards since Week 9. He’s the change-of-pace back for Baltimore that does not project for a massive workload. His rushing attempts prop is just 8.5 carries, with his projection on BettingPros toward the under. Furthermore, the Dolphins defense ranks No. 1 in fewest explosive rushes allowed this season.

Bijan Robinson over 21.5 receiving yards (-130 BetMGM)

Take the over on the Bijan Robinson’s receiving yards and receptions. Last week, Robinson led with 50 receiving yards 7 catches and 10 targets (31% target share). Look for Robinson to see crazy usage as a receiver yet again. The rookie route participation (30-plus routes run) is off-the-charts. And the matchup is divine. Chicago has allowed the most receiving yards (59.1) and second-most receptions to RBs this season (6.5). Robinson has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in four of his last 5 games.

Bryce Young over 172.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This one comes courtesy of the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. Bryce Young tossed for 312 yards last week, and he should keep his momentum going in another plus matchup. No team has allowed more passing yards in the last five weeks than Jacksonville. Only 3 QBs they have faced this season have NOT gone over their passing yards projection. The projections have Young going for 200-plus yards. The current number is just too low, especially with both Panthers RBs popping up on the injury report this week.

DJ Chark Jr. over 23.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Jaguars have also allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this season. D.J. Chark has gone OVER 23.5 receiving yards in four of his last 5 games. Averaging 35.5 Rec YDs per game this season in 13 games played.

Dallas Goedert under 4.5 receptions (-130 BetMGM)

The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the 2nd fewest receptions to tight ends this season. One tight end they have faced since Week 6 has gone for 5 catches. Dallas Goedert went over 4.5 receptions last week…for the first time in five games played.

Saquon Barkley under 67.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Rams’ defense ranks 12th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game and No. 2 in fewest receiving yards per game to RBs. 2 RBs they have faced have gone over 30 receiving yards. The Rams defense also has not allowed a RB to surpass 70 yards since their Week 10 bye week. Only 1 RB they have faced since Week 6 has gone for 65 rushing yards or more.

Derrick Henry under 57.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Derrick Henry under 57.5 rushing yards – Houston is allowing the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (69). They held Henry at home to 9 yards on 16 carries two weeks ago. Also, Henry has rushed for 60-plus yards just twice in 7 road games this season.

Nico Collins over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook) 

Nico Collins will FLY over 59.5 receiving yards – Collins has at least 54 receiving yards in 6 of his 7 healthy home games played this season. He has also gone over this number in 3 straight games with C.J. Stroud under center. Factor in the Titans’ defense that is allowing the most catches to WRs over the last four weeks, and Collins is going to make use some EZ money this week.

George Kittle under 4.5 receptions (-140 FanDuel Sportsbook)

This George Kittle receptions prop at 3.5 has been EZ money this season. We bet it last week on flying colors. Rinse and repeat with it again listed a plus odds. Kittle has 3.5 or more receptions in just three games played this season alongside a healthy Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. And better yet, he has a prop on FanDuel listed at 4.5 receptions…

The Commanders’ defense is bad against everything… except for facing tight ends. 8th-fewest receptions allowed to tight ends at just 4.3 per game.

Jacoby Brissett over 23.5 pass completions

The 49ers have allowed the 2nd-most completions this season to QBs. The last 4 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. 8 of 10 have hit the over on their completions prop. Take the over on Jacoby Brissett’s 23.5 completions. In the last two games playing in relief, Brissett has completed 18 of 23 pass attempts for 224 yards (9.7 yards per attempt) and a 78% completion rate. 3 TDs and 0 INTs.

Javonte Williams over 2.5 receptions (+115 BetMGM)

Every RB not named James Cook that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER their receptions prop and 9 the last 11 have gone over their receiving yards prop. Javonte Williams has 3-plus catches in 9 of his 13 games played this season, going over in 7 of his last 9 games.

Greg Dortch over 30.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

The Eagles are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season. Greg Dortch has been the Cardinals’ primary slot receiver his last four games, seeing target totals of 10, 11, 1o and 4. He has averaged 61 receiving yards per game. I think in a pass-heavy game script, Dortch flies over this very low number. I like his anytime TD odds as well. The Eagles bleed production to WRs, ranking 1st in most 1st receiving TDs allowed to WRs this season.

Aaron Jones under 52.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I LOVE targeting the tough rushing matchup that the Vikings’ defense presents. Minnesota has allowed just TWO running backs to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. Just three RBs they have faced this season have gone for more than 55 yards. Under on Aaron Jones’ 51.5 rushing yards prop this week. He was held to just 29 rushing yards the last time these teams played earlier this season.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 17. 

Demario Douglas (+475/+2500) – Regression is coming. The rookie WR has the most receiving yards this season (517) without a TD score.  Douglas’ expected TDs this season are over 2.  19% cover probability in the BettingPros AnyTime TD report. The 4th-highest EV bet this week in the BettingPros AnyTime TD report.

Austin Hooper (+500/+2800) – The Colts’ defense is going to give up a TD to a tight end this week. Their defense has faced the 4th-most red zone touches and 5th-most RZ targets to tight ends, but they have only allowed three TDs. Austin Hooper played all the Raiders tight ends snaps last week, with Michael Mayer out due to injury. He hasn’t practiced all week. Hooper had a season-high 3 targets last week and was targeted once in the red zone.

Patrick Mahomes (+400/ +1800) – Mahomes has not scored yet this season. He’s never NOT scored a TD during the regular season. And considering the lack of a supporting cast around the Chiefs QB, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do more on his own. Last week, he had a season-high 10 carries for 53 rushing yards. The Bengals have faced the second-most rushing attempts from QBs this season along with the 5th-most red-zone touches. No player has more combined red-zone and attempts (13) than Mahomes does without a TD scored this season per the FantasyPros 1st TD scorer report.

Jerry Jeudy (+195/+1000) – Jeudy has nine red-zone targets this season but just one TD scored. He has the second-most receiving yards, catches and targets for a WR with only 1 TD this season. But Courtland Sutton – the Broncos’ leader in TDs – is out this week. Marvin Mims Jr. is doubtful with a hamstring injury. A QB change might be exactly what Jeudy needs to find the end zone this week versus the Chargers, who rank third in TDs to WRs this season.

Mecole Hardman (+550/+2800) – Skyy Moore was placed on IR and Kadarius Toney has been missing practices. Toney is also horrible. Ergo, after Rashee Rice, the Chiefs’ WR room is wide open for potential TD production at monster-long odds. If Mecole Hardman plays – he’s been practicing in full this week – look out for his anytime TD number

Colby Parkinson (+850/+3500) – Colby Parkinson also drew 3 red-zone targets in Week 16. The Steelers have faced the 4th-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season, including the most (7) over the last four weeks.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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