Erickson’s NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Erickson |
Jan 05, 2024

Welcome to Andrew Erickson's Week 18 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 18 betting.

We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
Week 2 was a step back, going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big - as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do - with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
But Week 4 was rough, fam...Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert's 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday OBJ!
Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
In Week 11 we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7 including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
Thanksgiving day we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD.
But the highlight of Week 12, was the official player props from last week's article. Oh baby did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI.
Week 13 brought some losses based on injuries, but we still came out in the green overall at 9-8. It was looking grim after Sunday, but a big game and anytime TD score from Evan Engram got us firmly in the winning column.
As for Week 14. It was a flat week. 9-9 straight up. But at least we hit on the Javonte Williams and Cade Otton anytime TDs.
Week 15...more of the same. 10-9. So far, no Christmas Gifts. The Ravensâ€™ passing game underwhelming hurt us badly.
Week 16 was generous during the holiday season. 10-5 straight up on the 15 props. YTLSI.
Week 17 was flat at 8-7 moving our overall record to 136-115-1 on official props (54%) this season. Heating up at the right time as the postseason props arrive.
Let's ride this into the back end of the NFL season into the postseason.

Note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won't make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

17 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let's turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson's Week 18 NFL Player Prop Bets

George Pickens over 3.5 receptions (-108 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Hammer the over on the 3.5 reception props for George Pickens. The Ravens don't allow a lot of WR yards, but they bleed targets (2nd) and receptions (7th). Pickens went for 130 yards on 6 catches and 10 targets back in Week 5 vs Baltimore. He has also been en fuego the last two weeks since the team went to Rudolph as QB1. Pickens also has 3.5 o more receptions in 5 of his last 7 games (4 of last 5).

Devin Singletary over 63.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Devin Singletary led the rushing attack in Week 17 with 16 carries for 80 yards while catching all 3 of his targets for 6 yards. Played 62% of the snaps. Singletary is already in a dream matchup versus Indy and is 165 rushing yards away from a contract bonus. Not impossible, but he's likely going to get fed touches. The Coltsâ€™ defense cannot stop the run, even after they got Grover Stewart back from suspension. They have allowed the 5th-most rushing yards per game to RBs this season. The last 7 RBs they have faced have gone for at least 70 rushing yards. Singletary is over 60 yards in three of his last four games.

Dalton Schultz over 4.5 receptions (+100 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Dalton Schultz can reach a $250k bonus for 60 receptions - Currently at 54 receptions. Might opt for the overs on his receptions and receiving yards. He played 79% of the snaps and ran a route on 71% of the dropbacks in Week 17. The Colts are allowing the 5th-most targets to tight ends this season. Schultz caught 4 balls for 34 yards on 7 targets versus the Colts back in Week 2.

Terry McLaurin under 4.5 receptions (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Dallas is allowing the 8th-fewest receiving yards and 5th-fewest receptions per game to WRs this season. You can get Terry McLaurin under 4.5 receptions at plus money this week across sportsbooks. He's gone over this number twice in his last seven games played. It's the second-highest +EV bet in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet this week.

Kenneth Walker III over 55.5 rushing yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Seattle running game was effective in Week 17, with Kenneth Walker III leading the way with 53 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries with 2 red-zone carries. Zach Charbonnet only had 2 carries. I like the Seahawks' chances to score points versus the Cardinals, especially when it comes to them riding their star RB, Kenneth Walker - presuming health in a must-win game. He has been a limited participant in practice this week as he battles through a shoulder injury.

His rushing prop is too low at 55.5 rushing yards this week. Arizona is horrible versus the run. Most rushing yards allowed this season to opposing RBs. They have allowed at least 61 yards to the last 7 RBs they have faced this season.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has Walker projected for 65.4 rushing yards.

James Conner under 12.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

James Conner has gone over 12.5 receiving yards twice in 12 games played this season. Heâ€™s simply not a featured receiver in the Arizona offense as he loses out on third downs snaps to Emari Demercado and Michael Carter. Iâ€™d expect him to do the majority of his damage as a rusher versus Seattle. Conner had 1 target last week.

Ty Chandler under 44.5 rushing yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Lions' defense is stout versus the run. They have not allowed RB to surpass 51 yards against them since Week 10. Fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs this season (58.4). Ty Chandler was held to just 17 yards when they played back in Week 16.

Jared Goff over 223.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

More than half of the QBs the Vikings have faced have finished under their passing yardage props over the last 13 games. Jared Goff has thrown for less than 275 yards in four of his last five games. However, the current line leans more toward the over for Goff with it suppressed to just 223.5 passing yards - a mark he has hit in three straight games. Goff has hit this number in all 7 home games. He has at least 236 passing yards in all his home games played this season.

Aaron Jones under 62.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Other than the Lions' RBs and Bijan Robinson, no RB has rushed for 60 yards versus the Bears' defense since Week 4. Leaning heavily toward the under on Aaron Jones' 64.5 rushing yards prop in Week 18. Held to just 41 rushing yards back in Week 1 versus the Bears defense.

Khalil Herbert over 58.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Packers are the No. 1 run-funnel defense in the league. The last six of 8 RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals. Herbert has back-to-back games with 110-plus rushing yards since reclaiming RB1 status in the Bears backfield. In any game he has seen at least 18 carries in he has totaled over 100 rushing yards this season.

Wan'Dale Robinson over 29.5 receiving yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season. Giants slot WR, Wan'Dale Robinson, has been Tyrod Taylor's favorite target this season. Robinson led last week with the most targets (9, 23% target share) going 6 for 55 followed by Darren Waller (6) and Saquon Barkley (6). He has averaged 8 targets over the last two games started by Tyrod Taylor.

James Cook under 64.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Running back James Cook had been on a heater but has only surpassed 69.5 yards in two of his last 5 games played. Cook has just 73 or more yards in one game (vs Dallas) in his last six games. The Dolphins are allowing the 8th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs at 77 yards. 3.9 yards per carry faced with the No.1 lowest explosive rush rate on defense.

Since the Dolphins' Week 10 bye week, they have allowed two teams' RBs to rush for more than 40 yards against them.

Cook rushed for 29 yards in the Bills' first game versus the Dolphins.

Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (+100 BetMGM)

The Dolphins are allowing the 10th-most receptions per game to tight ends (5.1). 8 of the last 11 tight ends to face the Dolphins have surpassed their receiving yards prop. Dalton Kincaid was the leading receiver for Buffalo last week catching four of seven targets for 87 yards. His usage was back up to a high route participation at nearly 80% along with a 55% snap share. He saw over 120 air yards with a 25% target share. The Week 18 projections have Kincaid for 4.2 catches this week. I also like his anytime TD odd at +250. 23% cover probability per the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Research Tool. He only has 1 TD score on 8 red-zone targets.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 18.

Dalton Schultz (+240/+1500) â€“ Dalton Schultz has just one fewer red-zone target (13) than Nico Collins this season. The Coltsâ€™ defense is going to give up a TD to a tight end this week. Their defense has faced the 3rd-most red zone touches and 5th-most RZ targets to tight ends, but they have only allowed three TDs. I like the over on Schultzâ€™s receiving props this week and for his chances to score a TD.

Nelson Agholor (+650/+1900) â€“ The Steelers have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to slot WRs this season. Nelson Agholor leads Baltimore in slot snaps/routes this season. He also posted a season-high 64 receiving yards when he faced the Steelers back in Week 5.

Khalil Herbert (+135/+800) â€“ Leads the Bears with 12 red-zone attempts/targets. But only two TDs. He should be able to take advantage against a terrible Packers run defense.

Trey McBride (+200/+1400) â€“ Only 2 TDs on a team-high 9 red-zone targets this season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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