Navigate

Erickson’s NFL Week 5 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

by |

Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 5 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 5 betting. We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.

Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.

In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.

All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.

But Week 4 was rough fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.

4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.

Let’s bounce back into Week 5 as we dive deep into the heart of the action and maximize your gridiron glory with my favorite Week 5 player prop picks!

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson’s Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets

Travis Etienne Jr. over 63.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

From a sides perspective – again tail at your own risk as I alluded to at the top – I don’t have a strong lean. Likely would side with Jags +5.5.

But given my track record…stick with the under.

Would much rather attack the offenses through player props on the Jaguars’ side of the ball. Travis Etienne Jr. got fed out of the gates in the second half of Week 4’s game versus the Houston Texans totaling 32 yards on three carries. With Pederson taking over play calling, I expected ETN to get fed in Week 5. He did just that with 20 carries but he amassed just 55 yards.

Still, bet the over at 63.5 rushing yards in Week 5. The Bills rank dead last in yards per carry allowed this season. Etienne’s explosiveness should be on full display.

Dalton Kincaid over 2.5 receptions (-175 BetMGM)

My favorite tight end player prop to target is rookie Dalton Kincaid.

Bet the over. Because the Jaguars cannot stop tight ends in the slot, allowing the most fantasy points to the TEs aligned inside this season. Kincaid has run more than half of his routes from the slot this season. Last week, he finished second with 5 targets but caught just four for 27 yards (20% Target share). His route participation was boosted substantially (79%).

Expect him to fly over his 2.5 receptions prop, which he has done in all but one game this season.

Anthony Richardson over 204.5 passing yards (-115 DK Sportsbook)

Anthony Richardson and the Colts offense can take advantage of a leaky Titans secondary, as they did last week versus the Rams. Tennessee ranks 5th worst in adjusted net yards allowed per pass attempt and completion percentage faced. Richardson is coming off a 200-yard passing game where he completed just 11 passes on 25 attempts (a career-high 8 yards per attempt).

We saw Shane Steichen decimate this Titans secondary last year with Philly, to the tune of nearly 400 passing yards. Don’t think we see that type of exact output from the Colts offense but make no mistake the Colts will know exactly how to effectively attack this defense.

Michael Pittman Jr. over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 DK Sportsbook)

Pair it with the over on Michael Pittman Jr.’s receiving line set at 57.5 receiving yards. Pittman has hit 56-plus yards in all his games besides last week, and I expect him to be peppered with targets as the No. 1 primary target option.

MPJ boasts a 28% target share through four games. His one catch last week after posting games with 8, 8 and 9 receptions stands out like a complete outlier. Also, there’s a Stepbrothers t-shirt narrative between this QB-WR duo. Don’t fade the t-shirt narrative.

DeAndre Hopkins over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 DK Sportsbook)

Same for DeAndre Hopkins OVER 54.5 receiving yards. Likely no Treylon Burks for another week and Hopkins is not listed on the injury report at all. Colts are allowing the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs this season and have allowed 6 different WRs to surpass 55 yards against them. With a 28% target share to boot, hard to see Hopkins missing this number with double-digit targets coming his way.

Gus Edwards over 43.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

The Raiders and Texans couldn’t run the ball at all till they faced the Pittsburgh Steelers in back-to-back weeks. The defense ranks second in rushing yards allowed per game to RBs. Every starting RB they have faced has gotten at least 60 rushing yards.

So buckle up folks…time to ride and hammer the over 43.5 rushing yards. Hit for three straight games and he has asserted himself as the team’s lead back. In Week 4, Edwards led the backfield with 15 carries for 48 yards on a 69% snap share. Justice Hill went 3 for 33 (12% snap share), and Melvin Gordon went 3 for 21 (19% snap share). Gus Bus also earned 3 targets with a shockingly high route participation (65%).

All aboard the Gus Bus.

De’Von Achane over 50.5 rushing yards (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)

You need to go OVER on De’Von Achane’s comically low 50.5 rushing yards prop. He’s gone over 100 in his last two games. Achane also finished with a 60% snap share to Raheem Mostert’s 43%. Mostert also lost a fumble. It’s the rookie’s job after he also led the backfield in routes run (69%). Look for him to keep running against a defense that ranks second in missed tackles and fourth in rushing yards allowed to RBs at nearly 116 yards per game. Every starting RB they have faced as rushed for at least 70 yards.

And as my colleague Joe Pisaspia informed me today, you can ladder this prop. By that I mean you bet Achane over 50 yards, than a smaller bet on over 60 yards than 70 yards..so on and so forth. So if he rushes for another 100-plus yards, you can potentially have a MASSIVE pay day while securing a profit early if he only gets above 50.

James Conner under 13.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM)

The Bengals are facing the highest aDOT this season (10.3), suggesting that chunk plays are coming. But not for the RBs as they have allowed the fourth-fewest total YAC.

I like the prop below on James Conner’s receiving yards prop. He has gone under in three of four games played as Emari Demercado has taken over the RB receiving role out of the backfield. Conner saw his snaps dip slightly in a negative game script (62%) as Demercado was used more in the receiving game. He saw more targets and ran more routes with Keontay Ingram out of the lineup. Ingram is not likely to play in Week 5, confirming Demercado as the pass-catching RB for Arizona moving forward. Arizona hardly throws to RBs anyway, ranking 29th in total RB targets this season.

Travis Kelce under 78.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

You have to SLAM the under on Travis Kelce. Since returning from his knee injury he hasn’t been close to reaching 78.5 receiving yards. He’s gone under the number in 3 straight games, and the Vikings have allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season (20.5). Kelce’s target share is just 23% this season – a slight dip from his 25% share last season.

Tony Pollard over 54.5 rushing yards (-120 BetMGM)

Tony Pollard ranks second in the NFL in carries and 5th in rushing yards. He is seeing too much value in a run-heavy offense to have his number be listed so low. It was listed at 70.5 rushing yards last week. Consider me unafraid of the 49ers run defense that allowed 4.7 yards per carry to James Conner last week.

Dallas Goedert over 33.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

Dallas Goedert’s over 33.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM) or his receptions prop is also a solid bet to add into a parlay this week. Goedert’s gotten the squeaky wheel narrative after catching just two balls in Week 4. After he posted zero catches in Week 1, he saw 7-plus targets in two straight games. I also like his odds of scoring in this game given the squeaky wheel narrative. He’s tied for second in snaps inside the 10-yard line and the Rams allowed two random TDs to tight ends in Week 4.

The odds have me baking DG at +1200 to score the first TD for the Eagles. I also like the other tight end in this game for anytime TD with the Rams’ Tyler Higbee.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App