Erickson’s NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Erickson |
Oct 13, 2023

Welcome to Andrew Ericksonâ€™s Week 6 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, weâ€™ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 6 betting. We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.

Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.

In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big â€“ as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do â€“ with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.

All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.

But Week 4 was rough famâ€¦Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.

4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.

But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedertâ€™s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.

Ergo, we are now up to 25-28-1 on official props, with 3 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds putting us firmly in the green. Letâ€™s keep it rolling fam.

And note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I wonâ€™t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

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Ericksonâ€™s Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets

Zay Flowers over 56.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

I am doubling down on the Ravensâ€™ passing attack in Week 6. Regression is going to work in their favor after they left so much production on the table last week.

Zay Flowers' 56. 5 receiving yards prop is too low. He's gone over his projected total in four of five games this season. He was Lamar Jackson's top target in Week 5, receiving 11 passes (29% Target share). He caught 5 of them for 73 yards, demonstrating his ability to gain significant yardage on receptions. More importantly, he was used more downfield with a 16.7 average depth of target.

He is the clear-cut Ravens WR1. 29% Target share this season. And he left the production on the table. Buy the dip.

Massive game coming versus Tennessee this weekend. Flowers and DeAndre Hopkins are the two WRs this season with the highest number of targets, receiving yards and receptions to NOT have scored a TD yet. Flowers has nine total red zone opportunities (7 targets, 2 carries) while Hopkins has 6 red zone targets.

Sprinkle in some anytime TD/first TD score for Flowers? You better believe it. +190 to score anytime on FanDuel, +950 for the first TD. Start your Sunday morning off rightâ€¦with a Zay Flowers 1st TD prop. The Ravens have scored the 1st TD in all their games this season, although they have all been rushing TDs. The Titans have allowed the other team to score the 1st TD in four of their five games played â€“ three of which have been passing TDs.

Logan Thomas over 36.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM)

For props, you want to target the middle of the Falcons defense. Their biggest weakness is their slot CB, Dee Alford, which could lead to a highly involved day for Curtis Samuel. Also, Commanders tight end Logan Thomas is set up extremely nicely in this matchup.

LT continues to be super involved in the passing game, leading with a team-high 11 targets (23%) for 9 catches, 77 yards and 1 TD in Week 5. Ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks. Atlanta is allowing the 5th-most receiving yards (62/game) to TEs this season.

Like his odds at +270 as well for an anytime TD considering Atlanta has allowed a TE TD in 3 of 5 games this season. Atlanta has allowed the 1st TD through the air thrice this season (+1500).

Curtis Samuel over 3.5 receptions (+115 BetMGM)

The Falcons defense is also horrible versus slot WRs...so Curtis Samuel's 3.5 receptions prop at plus money is music to my ears. 6-plus catches in back-to-back games and no fewer than 3 receptions in any game this season.

Jerome Ford under 35.5 rushing yards (-110 BetMGM)

The Browns offense without Deshaun Watsonâ€¦means we are sniffing for unders. Specifically in their backfield. Jerome Ford under 35.5 rushing yards. Ford ranks dead last in rushing success rate this season. Despite being the â€œstarterâ€ the last two games, he has totaled yardage numbers of 18 and 26. No team is allowing fewer rushing yards per game to RBs than the 49ers (43.4). Considering the negative game script, I donâ€™t even know how many rushes Cleveland will total in this game.

Kareem Hunt under 8.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)

I also heavily lean on betting the under on Kareem Huntâ€™s receiving yards prop. Not because of the matchup â€“ the 49ers actually allow decent RB targets â€“ but because he is not the pass-catching RB on the roster. Over the last two games, Hunt has run a route on just 12 of 80 dropbacks (15%) with two targets. Ford has run a route on 60%. Very skeptical Hunt sniffs any worthwhile receiving usage or turns it into actual yardage. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet agrees with me, citing Huntâ€™s 3.6 receiving yards projection.

Jonathan Mingo over 30.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM)

Jonathan Mingo made 5 receptions for 48 yards, showcasing his reliability as a target (7 targets, 20% Target share). He put Terrace Marshall Jr. back on the bench in Week 5. D.J. Chark contributed 42 yards on 3 receptions, averaging 14 yards per catch, and scored a touchdown (6 targets). 3 red-zone targets. Both Chark and Mingo have 30% or higher air yard shares this season, with Mingo boasting the higher Target share 18% vs. 12%). Mingo is also coming off his best game to date. The first play was a pass to the rookie. Think I prefer chasing the rookie than the boom-or-bust Chark. 7-plus targets in Young's last two games. Chark has totaled fewer than 3.5 targets per game in 3 games with Young.

Joe Mixon UNDER 64.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Back to Joe Mixon's rushing UNDERS. The Seattle rush defense is much improved - 3.2 yards per carry allowed, 6th fewest rushing yards allowed per game - allowing just 2.6 yards per carry to opposing RBs. An average of 22.8 carries faced for just 59 yards.

Zack Moss under 45.5 rushing yards (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The under on Zack Mossâ€™ rushing prop is too easy. First of all, he is going to split more carries with Jonathan Taylor. Ergo, carries and volume are not on his side. Second, the matchup is brutal. The Jaguars are top-5 in fewest rushing yards per game and 8th in expected points added in run defense. Moss has run hotter than the sun the last month. The streak ends in Week 6.

Cole Kmet over 3.5 receptions (+130 BetMGM)

I love the OVER on Cole Kmetâ€™s receptions prop at plus-money odds. The Vikings rank 6th in receptions allowed to TEs (5.8 per game) and Kmet has surpassed 3.5 catches in all but one game this year. He ranks 5th in the NFL in receptions among TEs.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 12.5 carries (+100 BetMGM)

Back again with my Patriots. The offense has been beyond dysfunctional, and the defense has suffered several key injuries. That's resulted in a two-game losing streak where they have been outscored 3-72.

The only semblance of hope that works in the offense's favor is that the Las Vegas Raiders' defense is the weakest unit they faced this season. The Raiders struggle to generate pass rush outside of Maxx Crosby and have a horrible run defense that has made sub-poor offenses run the ball effectively this season. They rank 10^th in rushing yards allowed per game. And the Patriots will likely be able to establish some ground game considering they won't be down two TDs from the get-go. The Raiders are facing an average of 30 carries per game this season.

Therefore I am backing Rhamondre Stevenson to see a heavy workload. Heâ€™s been completely removed from the injury report â€“ unlike last week â€“ and he has had at least 12 carries in all but one game this season. Like the over on his rushing prop as well set at 48.5 rushing yards.

Joshua Palmer under 53.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My favorite prop for Monday night football? Joshua Palmer UNDER 52.5 receiving yards. Here's the scoop. The Cowboys are allowing the fewest fantasy points to perimeter WRs this season. 3rd-fewest receiving yards allowed overall to WRs with the 2nd-lowest catch rate.

In Week 4, Palmer led the team with 8 targets, finishing with 3 catches for 77 yards. Again, the final stat line is majorly boosted by the last-minute 51-yard catch, so Palmer busted for essentially 59 minutes. Keep that in mind as Austin Ekeler's return will likely lower Palmer's target share as will an increased workload for rookie Quentin Johnston.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet agrees with me projecting Palmer for just 41.2 receiving yards - more than 10 yards under his listed prop.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Chris Godwin (+195/+1100) â€“ TD regression calling his name. One of two receivers this year with 7-plus red-zone targets and zero TDs (Zay Flowers). Mike Evans is expected to miss the game. Lions rank 7th in points per game to slot WRs. Godwin blew up in Week 4 with Evans out, and Baker Mayfield has shown he can support at least one fantasy WR every single week. The Lions are 8 to 3 in terms of the pass-rush TD ratio allowed on defense this season.
Foster Moreau (+650/+3000) â€“ The Saints have scored their first TD in 4 of 5 games. Foster Moreau started last week with Juwan Johnson inactive (likely not playing in Week 6). Caught one pass for a TD. Played 100% of the snaps inside the red zone. Has chemistry with Derek Carr in the red zone dating back to time spent with the Las Vegas Raiders. Texans have allowed the most yards to TEs this season.
Jakobi Meyers (+210/+1100) â€“ The Patriots have allowed the other team to score the 1st TD first in four of five games. LV has scored 1st TD in four of five games. All passing TDs to WRs. Meyers and Davante Adams have combined for 19 red-zone targets this year, but Adams is banged up with a shoulder injury. Meyers notoriously never found the end zone as a member of the Patriots. Think they try to feed him a score. In three games with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, Meyers has averaged 10.5 targets, 7.6 receptions, 80.3 receiving yards, and 1 TD per game.
Dawson Knox (+275/+950) â€“ Dalton Kincaid is slated to miss with a concussion. Knox is a red-zone favorite of Josh Allen. Giants have allowed their opponents to score the 1st TD in all their games played.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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